This is the last NBA game before the all-star break. Both teams are on a back to back and looked good on Wednesday, as the Jazz blew out the Lakers while the Clippers blew out the Grizzlies. But Utah doesn’t win often and we don’t see them replicating their play from last night. We have to figure that the Jazz are happy with their performance against the Lakers and ready for the All-Star Break, while the Clippers are dangerously close to slipping into the play in tournament section of the standings and need every win they can get. They are healthy and last night’s dominant win over the Grizzlies tells us this team is back playing well after some poor play to start the month. The Clippers match up well against the Jazz and have won five of the last six meetings. All those wins were by double digits, and four were absolute blowouts, including last Saturday, where the Clippers barely broke a sweat in a 20-point victory. LA has superior depth to handle the B2B even though Utah gets this one at home. But LA knows they have some time off coming up and should produce a strong effort tonight.

3 Unit Play. Take #794 South Dakota over UMKC (8p.m., Thursday, February 13) UMKC has been one of the most disappointing this season and I do not see them righting the ship on the road tonight. They have lost 8 of their last 9 games but did beat South Dakota earlier this season. Look for the Coyotes to get their revenge tonight at the Sports Center in Vermillion, SD.

Memphis has been tearing the league up with wins and a high cover rate, including a win and cover at Phoenix on Tuesday. But now they are on a very tough back-to-back against a rested Clippers team that matches up extremely well with them. Los Angeles hasn’t played since Saturday, when they scored a 20-point win over Utah. The Clippers have won four straight in this series and six of the last eight. Before that Utah game, the Clippers had a bad stretch of play, but it looks like they are back on track now, and this is a good matchup for them to keep the momentum going. LA also has a very high cover rate this season and they are quietly getting the job done on the court and at the betting window.

2 Unit Play. Take #686 Under in Iowa @ Rutgers (6:30p.m., Wednesday, February 12 BTN) Both of these teams are poor this season and we look for Rutgers to dictate the pace of this game since they are playing at home. The Scarlet Knights are 126th in the country in scoring this season and it has been even tougher for them to score during Big 10 play. I look for this game to be played in the seventies and thus the under will hit with whoever comes out on top.

The last two games for the Raptors show why they are a great squad to bet on this season. They lost to both Houston and OKC, and they had no real chance of winning those games. But they covered both of the matchups. This team doesn’t have big names and they are under the radar, but they play hard almost every night and they don’t give up until the final buzzer. That is why they have amassed a 31-21-1 ATS record. Philly is always overrated and has as a result struggled to cover too many lines (20-32 ATS). This looks like another matchup where the Raptors are underrated.

5 Unit Play. Take #618 Michigan over Purdue (7p.m., Tuesday, February 11 Peacock) Purdue is just not the same team when they play on a neutral or road site. They have a great homecourt advantage, but this is a game Michigan needs more. A win by the Wolverines will keep them atop the standings in the Big 10 and look for them to take advantage of their size in this contest. Michigan also has a revenge angle, as they were crushed by Purdue earlier this season. Look for them to bounce back.

2 Unit Play. Take #881 North Carolina over Clemson (7p.m., Monday, February 10 ESPN) Always risky taking North Carolina, but we will on Monday. Clemson is coming off a hard fought victory over Duke on Saturday and feel they could be a letdown for them in this spot. Thus we will grab the two field goals in this game, as Carolina has a remarkable all-time record against Clemson.  

Orlando has won two straight meetings and three of four, and all the wins came by 10 or more points. Orlando has only two wins in their last eight games. But they have just finished a six-game road set and the friendly confines of home should be good for this team as they are 15-9 on the season here at Kia Center. The Spurs haven’t been much better with three wins in their last 10, and this is a very tough road B2B after they lost in Charlotte last night as a double-digit favorite. Not only is this a B2B with both games on the road, but Orlando is a strong and physical defensive team that should wear the Spurs down late. Orlando has dealt with so many injuries this season but are relatively healthy now. We expect a strong showing from the home team tonight.

10 Unit Play. Take #655 Over in North Dakota State @ Nebraska Omaha (2p.m., Saturday, February 8) Both teams have a ton of scoring punch. We will not worry about who covers the spread in this game and instead just focus on the total. 165 points were scored when these two teams met earlier this year on January 4. Omaha’s offensive stats are skewed when they were playing better teams earlier this season. They have scored at least 77 points in all of their games since December 16. This should be a game where fouling occurs at the end of this competitive game to bring the total into the 160s.

The Wizards have won and covered in three straight, so they will come in to this one with some confidence. Cleveland has pretty much been a covering machine this season but they have started to become overvalued as their shooting has cooled off a bit. They have covered in four of their last nine games. Washington has covered in three of the last four meetings, and they kept it to a 10-point deficit in a meeting in Cleveland in December. We are pretty much going to back any home team getting this many points.

5 Unit Play. Take #819 North Dakota State over UMKC (8p.m., Thursday, February 6) I always like using the Bison in Summit League Play. They are always a top team in the league and should be able to win this game by 6-8 points. The Roos have lost 6 straight games and that includes a loss to the Bison during this losing streak. They are just playing out the string of games and I see them struggling to win any of their remaining games.

2 Unit Play. Take #707 Rhode Island -1 over Fordham (7p.m., Wednesday, February 5 ESPN+) No bet against Fordham is a bad bet during A10 play. The Rams are 2-7 and are coming off a tough loss to St Bonaventure last time out. There will be a carryover effect into this game. Rhode Island got off to a hot start but has not been playing well of late. This is a get well game for them and expect a decisive road victory.

4 Unit Play. Take #633 Drake over Murray State (7p.m., Tuesday, February 4 ESPN2) Will not overthink this play, Drake is 20-2 and the best team in the MVC. Murray State is a bottom half team in the conference but they did beat Drake in Des Moines earlier this season. Revenge will be served tonight as the Bulldogs gets closer to the No. 1 seed and what may be a winner take all tournament.

The Pistons are on a back-to-back, but in our opinion they are being punished too much by the oddsmakers. They have been pretty solid in recent back-to-backs, and they are facing a Hawks team that is banged up, missing their best player, and in an absolute tailspin, having lost eight straight games. Detroit has been building some momentum and has won and covered in two straight, and this is a great spot for them to make it three in a row. They match up well with the Hawks and already have two wins against them this season. The most recent meeting was less than two weeks ago in Atlanta, a 10-point Pistons win. Atlanta had to rally big time in the fourth quarter with a 29-17 quarter just to make the final look respectable. In that game, Capela notched a double-double and him and Young combined for almost 30 points, and both players are likely to miss this game tonight. The lack of rest shouldn’t faze the Pistons and we expect a comfortable win tonight.

Milwaukee looked like they were back to playoff form with a stretch of solid play but now the injuries are piling up again and they were blown out in their last two games, to the Spurs and Blazers no less. Morant is likely out here for the Grizzlies, but they have proven they can get the job done with multiple rosters starting. They have won and covered six straight meetings.

It is always one of the biggest games of the season whenever the Lakers visit Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are the much better team and they will face a Lakers team that is very banged up at the moment. We don’t see anything other than a blowout here. The Knicks are rested and absolutely rolling right now as they have won five straight and just won their last three by double digits. And look at the opponents: Denver, Memphis and Sacramento. That is playoff form right now and this team is establishing themselves as a serious championship contender.

7 Unit Play. Take #645 Wisconsin over Northwestern (2p.m., Saturday, February 1 FS1) Wisconsin struggles when teams have multiple big men that are good and I do not see Northwestern fitting that bill. The Wildcats have been struggling against good teams, losing 3 of their last 4 games including a home loss to Rutgers last time out. Wisconsin beat that same Rutgers by 12 points earlier in New Jersey. Wisconsin can score points this season averaging 82 points per game and I am just not sure Northwestern can come close to getting that mark. Lay the small change with the better team today in Evanston.

The Hornets have covered in four of their last five as double digit dogs. We like this Clippers team a lot but are they going to get up for this game after playing teams like the Spurs, Suns and Celtics recently? This is the biggest line the Clippers have faced on the road this season, and they know they can probably win this one without giving full effort. The Hornets have lost but covered the last two meetings and three of the last four. We simply think this is too many points tonight, and there is a good chance the home team keeps this one within double digits.

Cleveland is one of the best teams in the NBA at not only winning games but covering them also, and it is very tough to go against them for wagers. We think it is justified tonight, however, and we think the Cavaliers are vulnerable. The Hawks have lost six straight and are very desperate for a win. They have played well in their last two games, however, with covers at Minnesota and vs. Houston, as they have had a tough schedule lately. The Cavs are on a back-to-back, while the Hawks are rested. Cleveland has won and covered two straight, but before that they were on a rare three-game losing streak without a cover, so they aren’t playing their best overall right now. The Hawks have also won and covered in three straight meetings. For our personal wagers, we might sprinkle a little on the moneyline also.

4 Unit Play.  Take #667 Wisconsin +5 over Maryland (7p.m., Wednesday, January 29 BTN) This is just too many points to be giving to the 17th ranked team in the country. Wisconsin has the better offense in this game and expect them to be able to take this game down to the wire. Maryland was lucky to beat Indiana on Sunday and Wisconsin is a much better team.

Utah has covered in three of the last four meetings. We think they are getting too many points again. The Jazz haven’t been playing well lately. It wasn’t long ago that they were covering a lot of games. They are coming off consecutive blowouts and we just think they are due for a competitive game. They have a winning record ATS this season and Golden State has not had many blowout wins lately outside of that Chicago game. The Warriors have covered only three of their last eight games, so the oddsmakers have them overrated right now.

2 Unit Play. Take #652 BYU over Baylor (9p.m., Tuesday, January 28 ESPN2) The Cougars are coming off two straight blowout wins to get back on track. I see them making it three in a row, as Baylor is not as strong of a team as they have been in past years.

2 Unit Play. Take #884 Arizona over Iowa State (10:30p.m., Monday, January 27 ESPN) Unranked team that is favored against the No. 3 team in the country is usually a strong indicator to lay the points. Arizona needs this win more than Iowa State does and they have a great home crowd that will be in play tonight in Tucson.

This game should be an absolute shootout. Both teams are rolling offensively right now and the pace should be fluid here. Memphis has scored no less than 125 in their last three games. They have 129 or more in four of their last six games. The Knicks are coming off a 143-point effort against the Kings. We think this will be a very competitive game that should come right down to the wire, and we think both teams can easily surpass 120 points each. Eight of the last nine meetings have gone over the posted number.

2 Unit  Play. Take #844 Wisconsin -7.5 over Nebraska (1p.m., Sunday, January 26 BTN) Wisconsin got a bad whistle last time out at UCLA but home cooking should allow them to win this game by double digits. They are facing a former player and will want to show him they are the better team.

Just love the way the Bucks have been playing, and we had this line handicapped at PK so there is some value here. Milwaukee is playing as well as any team in the NBA right now and making up for a slow start. They are a live underdog to win this one tonight. They play well against the Clippers traditionally. They have won eight of the last 10 meetings and covered in three straight. That is a long history of dominance since these teams don’t play each other often.

The Kings have been hot, but we think this is a very tough matchup for them. This is their third game in four days, and they looked like they were running out of steam on Thursday vs. the Nuggets. They will need everything in their arsenal to beat the Knicks at MSG, and we don’t see this matchup going well for them. The Knicks have won and covered the last two meetings and six of the last seven.

We don’t often like to lay double digits in the NBA, but Memphis is the type of team that can put a massive score up against a banged up team like the Pelicans. Once again the Pels will be without their best player, and Murray is banged up as well. Memphis is 5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite in their last six in this situation. They have won and covered in four of the last five meetings.

The Magic have been very poor on offense and we just don’t see them being able to score enough to cover this line tonight. They have scored 100 or less in four straight games. This team plays at the slowest pace in the league, and a low scoring game makes the points more valuable here. The Blazers have won and covered in their last two games, and they should come in confident they can keep this one close if not challenge for the win.

The Mavs have tons of injuries across their lineup and even if some of the questionable players hit the court, this team will be severely shorthanded tonight. The Timberwolves have been a bad team to bet on most of the season, but we have found if we pick the right spot for them that it can be advantageous and this looks like a good spot for them to pick up a comfortable win. They have had some losses lately as they have had a very tough schedule, but they have played well even in the losses and this team finally looks like it is gelling a bit with the roster additions. They have won and covered the last two visits to Dallas, and we think this could possibly be a 10-point-or-more victory.

7 Unit Play. Take #665 Wisconsin over UCLA (9:30p.m., Tuesday, January 21 Peacock) Wisconsin is playing outstanding basketball at the moment and will enter this game having 7 straight games. UCLA has not played to their potential much of late and will enter this game having lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Big 10 Conference is much more physical than what the Bruins are used to and I see Wisconsin taking this game down to the wire and pulling it out late. The Badgers beat USC without their leading scorer doing anything in that game and this variety will allow them to cover the number on Tuesday night.

Orlando is dead last in points per game in the NBA and they are also the slowest paced team. It’s no wonder they are 26-18 to the under. They have dealt with injuries all season long and haven’t had a consistent rotation, which hasn’t helped. They literally have to rely on their defensive schemes to stay competitive and hope they can sink enough buckets to win. Three straight meetings have gone under, and the last two were well under this total. The Magic haven’t scored more than 100 in three straight games. It’s doubtful they will break out here since the Raptors are an underrated defensive club. They held Boston to 97 recently and the Warriors to 100. It’s a very strong possibility that Orlando won’t reach 100. The Magic have been giving up some points lately as they have played many strong offensive teams. They have lost a lot of those games. But we think this is a game they think will be winnable and they will lock down defensively tonight.

The Clippers have won and covered in four straight meetings. The Bulls enter on a five-game losing streak. They have not covered any lines in their last four despite some generous lines by the oddsmakers. The Clippers are as healthy as they have been all season and they have played very well in their shiny new building. They are a very focused team this season and are playing great fundamental basketball, and are well coached as well.

Orlando’s stock is down and they haven’t been playing well lately. Injuries have been a big problem here. But we think this is too many points. The Nuggets are an inconsistent team. They don’t care much about the regular season and this is a team built for the postseason. We don’t see them giving 100% effort here. Orlando has had a very tough schedule lately. But they have won three straight in this series and covered in seven straight. They play at the slowest pace in the league and we think defense will allow them to keep this one close tonight.

7 Unit Play. Take #691 Wisconsin +1 over Southern California (3p.m., Saturday, January 18 BTN) USC is playing better but I do not feel they are at the point where it should be a pick’em game against a traditional top conference team like Wisconsin. The Badgers have also won 6 straight game, and they will go on a scoring run at some point in this game and I am not sure USC will be able to keep pace. Still cannot overlook the fact that USC lost to Cal, Sainty Mary’s, New Mexico, Indiana, and Oregon this season. Wisconsin is better than all of those teams and USC just does not have much of a homecourt advantage at the Galen Center.

We have avoided Boston like the plague as they have been overrated by the oddsmakers and they have been a bad ATS team. But when they want to bring their A Game they can dominate any team in any given night. Considering they are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raptors and also that the Magic beat them outright last meeting, this looks like a game that Boston will want to perform their best in. Orlando isn’t the team they should be this season with major injuries along their roster. We see a major blowout here.

4 Unit Play. Take #856 Cal Poly over UC Davis (10p.m., Thursday, January 16 ESPN+) The line in this game tells me something, as Cal Poly enters as the favorite despite being 0-6 in Big West play. This is a rematch and I expect the home team to win both of these meetings. Owen Koonce has been on a tear of late and if he gets 20+ tonight that should be enough to win this game for the Mustangs.

These teams played a week ago, and the total topped 250. These teams don’t play often, but the meeting before that saw 248 points scored. These are two Top 8 teams for points scored per game and also pace. The Cavs are No. 2 in the NBA for scoring and average more than 122 per game. In last week’s game both teams shot well over 50 percent from the field, and this will be a fast-paced game with lots of offense, so we don’t see much of a difference in what the final outcome is. This should be another close game, and we expect both teams to get their share of the total. Cleveland is one of the top over teams in the league and they have gone over in five if their last eight. OKC has been trending in that direction with four straight overs.

3 Unit Play. Take #754 Oklahoma over Texas (10p.m., Wednesday, January 15 SEC Network) Nothing better than two teams in the Midwest having a 9 p.m. local time tipoff. This is a straight fade on Texas, as I feel they are frauds, and their head coach is in over his head. The Sooners are also 0-3 in SEC play but I feel they are the better team in this matchup and cannot afford to lose another home conference game at this point of the season.

Even though the Thunder keep covering some of these inflated lines, these numbers are starting to get ridiculous. Yes, Embiid is out here. But Philly still has some players and they will want to play their best here as OKC is really starting to have a target on their back. The Sixers have won eight of the last nine meetings outright and they have covered in six of the last eight. Philly hasn’t been great lately but they are rarely getting blown out recently and we think they fight hard here and keep this one within double digits.

3 Unit Play. Take #618 Indiana over Illinois (7p.m., Tuesday, January 14 Peacock) Homecourt in the Big 10 means everything and we will gladly grab the points with Indiana tonight at Assembly Hall (or whatever it is called now). The Hoosiers have righted the ship before a bad outing last time out at Iowa, but they still have won 5 of their last 6 games. Illinois is coming off a bad loss to USC at home over the weekend. Expect this game to go down to the wire, but in the ned the Hoosiers will come out on top.

Usually when teams face each other in consecutive games, you can always bank on the losing team to put in a better effort in the second meetings. But in a weird scheduling quirk, the losing team, in this case Memphis, played another game against Minnesota on Saturday after their Thursday matchup with Houston, so that shifted their focus and lessened the revenge angle. Houston has been off since that game on Thursday, so they have a big rest advantage, which is crucial at this point of the long NBA season. They also have won and covered in five of the last six meetings. We think the Rockets are slightly better than the Grizzlies on a neutral court, so a rested Houston team at home should take care of business tonight with a comfortable win.

2 Unit Play. Take #857 Over in West Virginia @ Colorado (3p.m., Sunday, January 12 ESPN+) Look for Colorado to dictate the pace of this game at home. The Buffaloes are averaging 75 points per game and if they hit that mark on Sunday we should be able to cash this ticket.

7 Unit Play. Take #657 Over 150.5 in South Dakota State @ Nebraska Omaha (2p.m., Saturday, January 11) The Jackets are starting to score more points during Summit Play after playing a brutal nonconference schedule. I look for them to reach 80 points in this game and that should put us in good shape to collect with the over. The Mavericks have scored over 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Much of these two teams scoring totals are skewed by playing power conference teams during the nonconference portion of the season. We will not worry about who wins this game and just focus on the over.

This is a quick revenge spot for the Knicks, who lost by 10 to the Thunder just one week ago today. New York was up most of the game then just fell apart in the fourth quarter on the road. We expect a much more complete effort here at home, and we are happy to get points here as we had this line handicapped at PK with a lean to New York at that number. These teams have alternated covers for the last five meetings, and we think that trend will continue here tonight.

These teams met Saturday in Miami and the Jazz scored a 36-point blowout. We think revenge is an overrated factor in NBA handicapping and both teams have played two games since, so we don’t think Miami will be focusing too much on payback. They have some off the court issues that are probably dominating their thoughts. The Jazz have been a covering machine lately, cashing tickets in 8 of their last 10 games. And they play their best at home. We think this will be a close game, and a Jazz win would not be too surprising.

4 Unit Play. Take #819 Over in Northern Colorado @ Montana State (9p.m., Thursday, January 9 ESPN+) The Bears are good at forcing the tempo of their opponents and tonight should be no different. They have at least hit the posted over for tonight seven straight games (1 push) and they are averaging 84 points per game on the season.

2 Unit Play. Take #745 Over in Arizona State @ Kansas (9p.m., Wednesday, January 8 ESPN2) Arizona State still is not getting any respect despite a good 10-3 record on the season. They are a big underdog tonight but we will focus on the total. Both teams average over 77 points per game and Arizona State scored 81 points last time out. Kansas scored 99 points against UCF last time out. We will not worry if Kansas can cover this big number and instead just focus on the over.

Injuries on both teams but Utah has been a covering machine lately and they have cashed bets in seven of their last nine. The Hawks have lost three straight to playoff type teams and they will probably have a letdown here. Atlanta has a poor ATS record and this team has been incredibly inconsistent. Utah has covered in six of the last eight and we think they are in a prime spot for a close game and possible outright win at home.

3 Unit Play. Take #614 Florida over Tennessee (7p.m., Tuesday, January 7 ESPN2) It ends tonight! Tennessee will suffer their first loss of the season in Gainesville. Florida has the size to negate Tennessee in the paint and I do not believe the Volunteers will be able to shoot it well enough from the arc. Florida scores 89 points per game and they will go on a run at some point and pull away from the No. 1 team in the country.  

Detroit is at a great stage in their rebuild and things are starting to come together. But the oddsmakers are slow to react. We had them handicapped at -9 in this game. They are coming in off three straight wins. They have covered in five of their last eight. Right now they are in the play-in position for the playoffs so they can’t afford to take a team like Portland lightly. We expect them to take care of business with a comfortable win.

6 Unit Play. Take #883 Wisconsin over Rutgers (7p.m., Monday, January 6 FS1) The Badgers are scoring a ton of points this year and I am not sure Rutgers will be able to keep pace with the in this game. The Scarlet Knights have struggled with lesser teams this season and the Badgers are a streaky team that is playing outstanding basketball at the moment. Ace Bailey will get his points for Rutgers, but I see Wisconsin with the better all-around team.

2 Unit Play. Take #827 Over in Iona @ Siena (2p.m., Sunday, January 5 ESPN+) The Saints have risen from the to win two straight games and have been scoring more points of late. They are averaging 93 points over their last two games and look for them to dictate the pace of this game at home this afternoon.

7 Unit Play. Take #788 Texas A&M over Texas (8p.m., Saturday, January 4 SEC Network) Both teams have two losses on the season, but Texas does not have many quality wins. They have feasted on mid-majors, and I am just not sure Rodney Terry is up to the task of being a head coach for a major program. Texas A&M is the better defensive team and playing at home should allow their offense to get going. The Aggies want to win this game badly, since Texas is their big brother, and they were against them joining the SEC. Texas beat them in football this season and took their baseball coach. The Aggies get revenge today with a double-digit victory at home.

Minnesota has been a disappointment so far in the 2024-25 season and even more for bettors as they have stayed overrated by the oddsmakers. This line feels like much of the same. The traded they made in the offseason haven’t worked yet and this team often feels disjointed. They enter having lost five of eight, and Detroit has a chance to win this one outright. The Pistons have covered in four straight meetings between these clubs, and they have won two straight and five of six, so they will be confident they can compete for the win here. We expect a close game.

2 Unit Play. Take #894 New Mexico over Nevada (11p.m., Friday, January 3 FS!) These teams are heading in opposite directions with New Mexico undefeated in MWC play and Nevada is 0-3. The Wolf Pack do not have a No. 1 player and thus they will have trouble winning any road game this season.

The Thunder have been amazing this season and an ATS machine, but they don’t win and cover every game, and this looks like a rare matchup that could see them struggle. They took care of business against a Harden-less Clippers squad on Thursday, and that was a physical game, so this is a tough back-to-back while the Knicks are rested. Despite the fact that New York has four more losses than do the Thunder, we think they are the more complete team and more of a championship threat this season. Brunson could return for the Knicks tonight from his minor injury that caused him to be a late scratch from the Jazz game. But the Knicks, now essentially healthy, have a deep roster even if he doesn’t play. The Knicks play has been as good as any team in the NBA lately, and they have the major rest advantage tonight.

3 Unit Play. Take #772 Indiana over Rutgers (8:30p.m., Thursday, January 2 Peacock) The Hoosiers have not lived up to expectations yet again this season, but they still have talent and should be able to beat Rutgers at home by double digits. The Scarlet Knights have some bad losses on the season to Kennesaw State and Princeton and barely beat Seton Hall at home. Lay the points with the Hoosiers at home.

It is very difficult to wager against OKC as they seem to cover any line the oddsmakers throw their way, but we lean towards the Clippers tonight ATS but think it’s better to attack this low total in what we think will be a competitive game. The Clippers are coming off one of their worst performances of the season in San Antonio and they will no doubt want to play well here today. These teams played here in November and the total topped 260. While we don’t see that type of game tonight, we could see this one easily going over 225. Four straight meetings at OKC have gone over the posted number, and we think that trend will continue tonight.

5 Unit Play. Take #648 Providence +6.5 over Marquette (6p.m., Tuesday, December 31 FS1) This is a lot of points for a true road game for the Golden Eagles to be laying. Marquette is just 2-2 in road games this season with their wins coming under tonight’s posted number. Providence pounded Marquette early in Big East play last season and they should be able to take this one down to the wire. The Friars play at a slow place, which should keep the scoring lower that what Marquette is accustomed to.

The Pelicans have been one of the worst teams ATS, while the Clippers have been very profitable as a betting team on the season. But we think this is a bad spot for the Clippers and the Pelicans are at a good Buy Low point in certain spots. No one is betting on New Orleans now as they have used up all of bettor’s good will. Two of their best players are out, and they have had lots of injury problems, the same ones that have plagued this team for the last couple years. But this looks like a game the Clippers likely won’t give full effort for. They just played one of their main rivals, Golden State, and they have played recent games against Dallas, Memphis, Minnesota and Houston. They have the Spurs and the Thunder on deck. If there were a game they might overlook, this looks like it. The Pelicans seem to always play well against the Clippers, and they have won and covered in seven of the last eight meetings. We have been picking the Clippers a lot this season and we stated in this space at the start of the season that we thought LAC was a playoff team even if Kawhi didn’t return. But we don’t like them in this spot and especially as a big road favorite.

2 Unit Play. Take #858 Cornell -11.5 over Siena (4p.m., Monday, January 30 ESPN+) Neither team has gotten off to a good start this season, but the Big Red have been playing better of late winning 4 of their last 4 games. They score 84 points per game and that should allow them to cover this double-digit number at home.

2 Unit Play. Take #682 Green Bay over IPFW (2p.m., Sunday, December 29 ESPN+) The Phoenix are terrible and their coach is taking a ton of criticism, but I feel we are getting value with them here. They are playing at home and should be able to keep this game in single digits.

This is a tough spot for the Knicks, who are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. And you have to look at the games they played. The Christmas game against the Spurs was big, and then they faced a physical Orlando team on Friday. So this game against Washington doesn’t really move the needle for them. They can probably sleepwalk through this one and win by 7. Washington has become a bit underrated by the oddsmakers, and they have covered four of six. We think they can keep this one within double digits.

7 Unit Play. Take #630 UCLA Bruins over Gonzaga Bulldogs (4p.m., Saturday, December 28 FOX) UCLA owes us one after blowing a 16-point lead last week against North Carolina. This team is talented, they just need to clean up a few things (free throws) which they should be able to do in this game. Gonzaga is not as strong as they have been in recent years and playing UCLA always seems to go right down to the wire. In fact, 3 of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 4 points or fewer. UCLA allows just 58.4 points per game (7th best in the country) and that should be enough to get us a cover in this game.

The Warriors will likely be missing their two best players tonight, and they are in a bad spot after their epic Christmas game. The Clippers always play their best against the Warriors and they have won five straight meetings. They are well rested as their last game was on Monday. They also have some positive momentum due to the fact that reinforcements are on the way as Kawhi Leonard is practicing right now and will return to the lineup soon, so this team is suddenly a legit contender in the Western Conference.

These teams played last week in Boston, so this is a quick revenge spot for the Magic. Orlando is missing some players, but the guys that are on the court tonight will be able to keep this game close. The Magic can be excused for their blowout loss in Boston, as they are 7-10 on the road this season, but they will give their blood, sweat and tears here at home as they are 11-2 at the Kia Center this season. Boston has their big Christmas matchup against Philly on tap, while the Magic don’t play until Thursday, so they can leave it all on the court here. The Magic have covered the last three meetings at home, and we think this could be a flat spot for the defending champs.

2 Unit Play. Take #868 Loyola Chicago over Charleston (5:30p.m., Monday, December 23 ESPNU) Both teams are off to strong starts this season and we expect the Ramblers to take care of business in Honolulu after a tough 1-point loss yesterday on the islands. Charleston lost by 9 points to a bad Oregon State team yesterday.

Looks like Morant will miss this one for the Grizzlies and Young could miss for the Hawks. While these teams can put up some points and there will be some pace here, the total is just too high for the lineups these teams could trot out tonight. Even a short cold spell for shooting could doom over bettors here. We can’t expect to see both teams get around 120 each and we think this one could land well under the posted number.

7 Unit Play. Take #661 UCLA -1 over North Carolina (3p.m., Saturday, December 21 CBS) No bet against North Carolina is a bad bet at this point. This seem to be out played in every game against ranked teams and they will have their hands full with UCLA on Saturday. UCLA is 10-1 on the season and they have not lost a game since 11/8. The have great size and should by able to out physical the Tar Heels on both sides of the court. Playing all these tough games has taken its toll on UNC and I just do not see them getting out of this funk on Saturday at a neutral court in New York, NY.

Minnesota has held six of their last seven opponents under the century mark. That is amazing in this day and age of NBA basketball. They are 7-3 to the under in their last 10. The Knicks can play a little defense, too, and they have gone under in three straight games. Their offense has been inconsistent, and we think they will have to lean on their defense if they want to win this one. We see an old-school style defensive matchup here and points will be hard to come by and we don’t see a fast pace in this matchup.

4 Unit Play. Take #680 UT Arlington over Evansville (8p.m., Wednesday, December 18 ESPN+) No bet against Evansville is ever a bad bet. They have not won a true road game this season and are currently 0-4 on the season. The Purple Aces score just 69 points on the season, and they will lose this game by double digits on Wednesday.

2 Unit Play. Take #626 Siena over St Bonaventure (7p.m., Tuesday, December 17 ESPN+) This is a fade on St Bona, as they are coming off a big win over the weekend and I feel a letdown in this true road game. The Bonnies beat the Friars, but that came without their best player from Providence. I see this game going right down to the wire, as Sienna is undefeated at home this season.

Three of the last four meetings have gone under the posted total. The Jazz have been very inconsistent on offense, They scored 126 last time out vs. Phoenix but only 97 the game before that at Sacramento. We think they will have trouble putting up points vs a Clippers team in the Top 5 for points allowed. This could be another game where the Jazz finish under the century mark. They have scored 106 or less in four of their last six games. If they have an offensive night like that, which we think is very possible against this defense, then this ticket should be an easy cash. The Utah defense stinks. But this Clippers offense isn’t good enough to take advantage and put up a massive number for points. They are No. 24 in the league for scoring. The Jazz rank No. 23 for scoring. These are two lousy offensive teams, and we think this total is inflated for Monday.

2 Unit Play. Take #736 UAB -3.5 over Arkansas State (6p.m., Sunday, December 15 ESPN+) UAB has underachieved this season, but they still have talent and should be a player in the Sun Belt Conference come March. They have won winnable games coming up and it should be able to take care of business at home on Sunday. Yaxel Lendeborg does it all and he should come up big again on Sunday.

The Bucks have been playing better after a slow start but one of their recent losses was in Atlanta, and that one was a blowout. That win against Milwaukee was one of seven wins in the Hawks last eight games, and they are playing as well as any team in the league right now. They haven’t had an easy schedule, either. The Hawks came into the season with low expectations and the Bucks with Championship-or-bust aspirations, so we think the NBA Cup means more to the Hawks here, while Milwaukee probably has their focus more on getting team chemistry right before the postseason.

10 Unit Play. Take #639 Arizona State Sun Devils over Florida Gators (3:30p.m., Saturday, December 13 SEC Network) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR. Arizona State has been the surprise of the country in football and their basketball team has been turning heads as well. They are 8-1 on the season with their only loss at Gonzaga, one of the toughest teams in the country. They have decent wins over Santa Clara, Grand Canyon, New Mexico, and their best win is against Saint Mary’s. Coach Hurley always appears to be on the hot seat, but appears destined to make the NCAA Tournament come March.

Florida is undefeated at 9-0 and they are ranked No. 9 in the country. This damage has been done against a cupcake schedule and I cannot find one team on their schedule that will likely make the NCAA Tournament at this point of the season. The Gators have not left the state of Florida this season, as this game in Atlanta will be their first trip out of state. I am not that impressed with the Gators stats on offense and most of their points are coming via volume not great shooting. Arizona State is a much better 3-point shooting team, and they hold their own with the Gators in field goal and free throw percentage. I just do not believe Florida will be able to run away with this game unless they really shoot it well from the arc, something they have not done much of this season. This is a neutral site game, and I do not see either team making a living on the free throw line and expect this to be a griding game, something Florida has not experienced this season.

The Sixers are getting healthy and starting to gel as a team and we think this team is trending upwards. They have won four of five and covered five straight. This was one of the worst ATS teams of the league but they look to be turning it around, and tonight they face a team they have basically owned. The Pacers have been horrible ATS and are one of the coldest teams in the league for covering lines. They have covered just 8 out of 25 games this season, and it looks to us like they are overvalued once again.

2 Unit Play. Take #673 UT Arlington over Arkansas State (8p.m., Thursday, December 12 ESPN+) We will grab the points in this exam week game between the Mavericks and the Red Wolves. Arlington scored 3 points more per game than does Arkansas State and getting close to double digits in what will likely be a low scoring game is too good to pass up.

Toronto has been one of the best ATS teams this season but this is a bad spot for them. The Heat are playing some of their best basketball of the season and they have won and covered three straight, all against playoff-type teams. Toronto enters on a three-game losing streak. Most importantly, they are missing Barnes tonight and this is their best player. He posted a double-double and shot over 50 percent from the field in Toronto’s home upset of the Heat earlier this month. We often say revenge is an overrated handicapping factor in pro sports, but we think it does come into play when the teams have met recently.

2 Unit Play. Take #636 Washington over Eastern Washington (11p.m., Tuesday, December 10 BTN) The Huskies are hosting a buy game against an in-state team and I expect them to win this by close to 20 points. Washington has great size and need a bounce back after getting blown out two straight Big 10 games. EWU should be the perfect for a get well game, as they are 0-6 on the road and have won just one game since November 7.

The Mavs have won three straight at OKC, including in their playoff series last year that they won in six games. Dallas was the No. 5 seed and they weren’t intimidated and they won’t be tonight. In what should be a playoff type atmosphere, Dallas has shown that they can get the job done here and they have all the experience in crunch time here. Dallas has now won five of the last six meetings overall. The Thunder’s only win in that span was by a mere 4 points in Dallas. Both teams have been playing well recently but Dallas has been a bit better as they enter on a seven-game winning streak where they covered all but one line, and that was last time vs. Toronto where they barely missed the cover. The Thunder have lost only two games at home this season, but one of those was to the Mavs a few weeks ago. Dallas matches up very well with OKC and they have the star players to excel in this high pressure atmosphere. They also seem hungry after losing the Finals last year and an NBA Cup would be a nice consolation prize, so we have no doubt they will come to play tonight. We expect a close game win or lose, and this one could very well come down to who has the ball last.

2 Unit Play. Take #751 Richmond over Auburn (12p.m., Sunday, December 8 SECN) This is an 11 a.m. local tipoff and I just feel Richmond can stay within this gigantic number. The Spiders are well coached and run a slower style of offense and should benefit us to cover this number.

The Grizzlies are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now and have won seven of their last eight games. We think they are in a good spot here for Saturday against the Celtics, who come in on a back-to-back after a tough game vs. Milwaukee, and this is their third game in four days, while the Grizzlies are rested. The Celtics have covered only two of their last 10 games, and it’s obvious their lines are being shaded at this time.

6 Unit Play. Take #621 Wisconsin over Marquette (1:30p.m., Saturday, December 6 FOX) This is just too many points to be giving for this in-state battle that has been dominated by the Badgers in recent years. Both teams are coming off losses during the week and I expect this game to go right down to the wire. Chase Ross went out in that game with an ankle injury for the Golden Eagles and did not return. Wisconsin struggled with size from Michigan, but Marquette does not have that to threaten them in this game. The Badgers have beaten the Golden Eagles three times in the last three years.

These teams played on Friday in Charlotte and the Hornets gave the Knicks quite a scare, with New York winning only by a single point. That prevents any surprises here, in our opinion, and gives the Knicks the opportunity to play a well-rounded game and not overlook this banged-up Hornets team. Charlotte is without Ball and Miles Bridges tonight and this team that will take the court isn’t much more talented than a G-League squad. The Knicks, in our opinion, are one of the four best teams in the league. They are getting healthy, too, and might get Achiuwa back tonight. Before that close game on Friday the Knicks had won the previous four meetings by 14 or more points, covering in all four.

Just think this line is too big. We have been burned by going against Boston a couple times recently but they just shot the lights out in those games but we think this one will be closer and the hot shooting can’t last forever. Boston generally hasn’t been good ATS this season and we think the Pistons can keep this one within double digits.

7 Unit Play. Take #646 Wisconsin over Michigan (9p.m., Tuesday, December 3 Peacock) Michigan is an improved team once they replaced Juwan Howard, but this is still in a rebuild and they already lost at Wake Forest. Wisconsin is 8-0 on the season and they tend to play to the level of their competition especially early in the game. They will be up for this game and I expect a strong 40 minute effort for them, as they need to protect their homecourt during conference play. Michigan has been beating some second tear teams, but this will be their toughest test of the season. I just do not believe they are ready to win at Wisconsin.

The Celtics are definitely not in playoff form right now as they have covered only one of their last seven games. We think this is an inflated line also. Brown and White missed yesterday’s game against the Cavs, and Boston faded down the stretch in that game and they looked fatigued. That was a big game for Boston, and this is a letdown spot. Miami has revenge for their playoff series loss last season, and this is their first crack at Boston, so we think they will want to play their best. Yesterday’s game was definitely bigger for Boston than this matchup with the Heat, and Boston might be missing a couple key players. Miami have been their typical regular season selves and have been pretty average, but we think this is a matchup where they will bring their A Game, and this spread is simply too large.

The Clippers already beat Denver in October, in Colorado no less, and they have actually won three straight meetings. Jokic is a beast as always, but Denver hasn’t been getting the contribution from his running partners that would produce a championship level squad. The Clippers are playing great team basketball right now and they are incredible defensively. We think they have a great chance to win this one outright.

The Hornets are banged up but we think this is a major letdown spot for the Hawks after back-to-back blowout wins over the Cavs. The truth is that the Hawks are 8-12 ATS and this team has been overrated by the oddsmakers. Those wins followed a three-game losing streak and the Hawks haven’t been much better than the Hornets overall. Charlotte has covered six of the last seven meetings and we think they will challenge for the win today.

3 Unit Play. Take #306649 Northwestern State over LSU (8p.m., Friday, November 29 ESPN+) LSU is back on the court after a third-place finish from the Greenbriar Classic and I see this game being played within 20 points. The Demons have played a tough schedule and they stayed within this posted number against most of their schedule. Look for that to happen again on Friday.

2 Unit Play. Take #812 Under in New Mexico vs Arizona State (11:30p.m., Friday, November 28 TruTV) This is a lot of points for a game that will see teams sitting around all day waiting to play in a make-shift basketball arena. This total has come down and I see the under cashing a ticket for us in this game. Arizona State has overachieved this season but I do not see a great offensive team under Coach Hurly.

The last meeting surpassed 260, and we think we could see this type of wild game here tonight. Seven of the last 10 meetings have gone over the posted total. We have seen that the Clippers can put up big stat lines against poor teams, and we think they could get over 125 tonight. Washington has given up that kind of score in 5 of their last 8 games. LA needs a strong performance here after being embarrassed by Boston last time out.

2 Unit Play. Take #730 Under in Louisville @ Indiana (12p.m., Wednesday, November 27 ESPN) I always believe it is hard to shoot in this building and playing the early game is never easy for both of these teams. I do not like the pieces for Louisville rebuild and feel they will struggle this season, especially on the offensive side of the floor.

These are two of the better defensive clubs in the league. And while Houston is rated No. 2 for defensive rating, Minnesota will get there. This is a big game for both teams as Minnesota needs to get some Ws after a slow start and this is a good test for the Rockets to beat a high-caliber team on the road. Who would have thought a few years ago that this would be a marquee matchup? But we think both teams will step up the defense in a critical matchup.

2 Unit Play. Take #306551 VMI over Loyola Maryland (7p.m., Tuesday, November 26 ESPN+) We will follow the massive line movement overnight and side with the Keydets tonight in Baltimore, MD. VMI has played some decent teams this season and the Greyhounds already have a home loss to Columbia.

The Clippers have won four of the last six meetings outright and they have covered in four of the last five. This looks like a very public line tonight. The Celtics have been winning but they haven’t been covering these inflated lines. They have covered just two of their last eight games. Both teams are on a B2B, so no advantage either way, and the Clippers have nice depth. LA is a team that is 11-6-1 ATS this season. They can be a nice moneymaker all season as they play some of the best defense in the league and don’t have any household names on the current roster except James Harden, who the public sees as washed up. But they play hard every night, and this team is a playoff quality squad right now and that is without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. They have won five straight, and their last four opponents were all likely playoff teams. They rolled over Philly yesterday without breaking a sweat, so they should have nice energy here. Boston had a much tougher matchup as they needed a lot of energy down the stretch in a tight win over the Timberwolves.

2 Unit Play. Take #858 South Dakota Sate over Boise State (1:30p.m., Monday, November 25) We will grab the points in game, as I feel South Dakota State is not getting enough respect against another mid-major team. Boise State is good this season, but I feel this game will be played in single digits, as SDSU is 5-1 on the season with wins over McNeese.

6 Unit Play. Take #722 Wisconsin over Pittsburgh (5:30p.m., Sunday, November 24 CBSSN) Not sure why Pittsburgh is favored in this game, but we will grab the points with Wisconsin and use them again in the Championship Game of the Greenbrier Tip-Off Mountain Division. Wisconsin has been scoring points at will early in the season and playing a second game in this building should help him from the arc. The Badgers have size down low and I see them pulling away late and winning this game by close to double-digits.