Make no mistake, the Spurs have been playing some of the worst basketball in the NBA and have been making an art out of tanking. But this looks like a very winnable game for them and they are going to get a win and cover at a certain point. We think tonight is the night. This team shot out of the gate with some great performances and was once one of the better bets in the league. Then some injuries hit and they fell off the cliff. But we think the value has swung the other way now and they should be a favorite here. Houston has only one more win than the Spurs. They are 3-12 away from home. They are 3-7-1 in the last 11 meetings. The Spurs have had extended rest coming into this one and should get a couple of their injured soldiers back for this game, and we expect a rare win from the home team tonight.

2 Unit Play. Take #663 Michigan State over Penn State (6:30p.m., Wednesday, December 7 BTN) Michigan State has been one of the most disappointing teams this season and Coach Izzo may not be able to dig out of this whole come March. But they still have more talent than does Penn State and getting this many points with is too good to pass up. Penn State is 6-2 on the season but does not have any wins against likely NCAA Tournament teams. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 5 games between Michigan State and Penn State.

6 Unit Play. #646 Wisconsin over Maryland (9p.m., Tuesday, December 6 ESPN2) Unranked team that is favored over a ranked team is always a recipe for success. Maryland has played outstanding this season and they have gotten new life under Coach Kevin Willard. The Badgers have also been playing much better since they got out of the baseball stadium and ballroom. Those venues are tough to shoot in and playing in basketball arenas have been their numbers go up. Maryland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning home record. Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

Miami is one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA at 8-15-1 ATS. They were one of the best last season but they have not lived up to oddsmaker expectations so far this season. Miami enters this one on a back-to-back, while Detroit had the night off Monday. Detroit has struggled to start the season and has dealt with many injuries, but they are starting to get players back. They have been a very strong bet when getting more than seven points, and they have also covered in all of the last four meetings.

2 Unit Play. Take #738 Michigan over Kentucky (1p.m., Sunday, December 4 ABC) We will grab the points in this matchup taking place in Europe. Michigan took Virginia down to the wire and I do not see Kentucky winning this game by double-digits. Kentucky does not have any quality wins at this points of the season, and their loses are to teams that already have a bunch of losses this season, Gonzaga and Michigan State. Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss in their previous game. Kentucky is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

The Thunder were on an over tear, but their offense has come back to earth a bit while the bookies have overadjusted their totals on a nightly basis. Two of their last three have gone under, and we think that is the way this one will go as well. Minnesota is 13-9 to the under this season. The Thunder have been having some scoring lapses lately and their best player is banged up as well. Also, the last five meetings in Minnesota have all gone under the posted number.

7 Unit Play. Take #669 Wisconsin over Marquette (4:30p.m., Saturday, December 3 FS1) This line is an overreaction to this week’s games for each team. Marquette shot the ball tremendously against Baylor and if they do that, they will win this game big. But Wisconsin has a better defense than Baylor and the Badgers have been playing better offensively in their two recent games. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games between Wisconsin and Marquette. This in-state rivalry should go down to the wire.

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The Jazz got off to a hot start but have cooled off big time and are now looking more like the team we expected to see entering the season. They also have some key injuries that are holding them back. They got a win last time out but that was their first in six games. Utah has excelled in the underdog role for betting purposes, but they are just 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Indiana is one of the best ATS teams in the league, and they quietly get the job done night in and night out. They are 8-3 ATS when getting more than three points as a dog. They are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Utah and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings overall.

3 Unit Play. Take #879 Gonzaga over Baylor (8p.m., Friday, December 2 Peacock) Just feel like Gonzaga has more upside in this game compared to Baylor. The Bears have been pounded twice this season including last time out against a Marquette team that shot lights out. Baylor’s defense is not what it has been the last couple of years. Baylor is 1-5 ATS in their last 5 games played on Fridays. The Bulldogs need this game more since they will have less opportunities for quality wins come conference play.

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Dallas is a very poor road team at 1-7 on the season. They have failed to cover in five straight on the road. Detroit is 8-3-2 ATS as an underdog of 7.5 or more, and they have served bettors well as a big underdog. Dallas is 2-11-1 ATS as a favorite of three or more points. At 5-14-1 ATS, this is the absolute worst ATS team in the league, cashing less than 27 percent of their games for bettors. Detroit’s only ATS loss in their last six games was last time out in a 30-point home loss to the Knicks. They will want to put in a much better effort in front of the home fans here. This is another inflated line for Dallas and this is an easy call to go against them.

10 Unit Play. Take #720 Indiana -4 over North Carolina (9:15p.m., Wednesday, November 29 ESPN) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR We lost some points on this game when North Carolina was exposed in Portland over the weekend, but the brand of Carolina still holds weight with the general public. The Tar Heels have been overrated and did not do much until the NCAA Tournament last season. Everyone assume that they would pick up right where they left off in April but that has not been the case. Now they must face a rested Hoosiers team at home that is waiting for a marquee win under Mike Woodson. Indiana has a ton of talent, and they are playing at a much higher level than North Carolina is. The Tar Heels played a 4 overtime game on Sunday and I just do not believe they will have much left in the tank for this game. Carolina has been terrible on offense and are 200+ in the country in assists per game. North Carolina is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on Wednesdays. Indiana is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games. This will be a double-digit victory for the home team and we expect to collect big in the process as well.

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The Thunder offense has fallen off the cliff the last couple games, failing to score more than 105 in consecutive games, Looks like this team is trending to the under after being a hot over team for awhile. Besides the last game against the Lakers, which was a barnburner, the Spurs have had offensive issues and scored under the century mark in three of their last five games. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and we see this one going well under the number here.

4 Unit Play. Take #636 Michigan over Virginia (9:30p.m., Tuesday, November 29 ESPN) Michigan has not played great this season and this is a win they need to build their resume for the NCAA Tournament. Virginia has been playing outstanding of late, but I do not believe they are the No. 3 team in the nation and this is a good matchup for Michigan. The Wolverines have the best post player in this game and they will grind out a low scoring victory on their home floor. Virginia is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a victory of more than 20 points in their previous game. Michigan is 34-16 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.

The Suns are rolling lately but they have played a very easy schedule. This Kings team is very underrated right now and they have been one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. They didn’t play well in their recent three-game road trip so they will want to bring their A Game tonight against a Western Conference rival back at home. The Kings have covered in four of the last five meetings, and we think that trend continues here on Monday.

2 Unit Play. Take #817 Sam Houston State over Nevada (10p.m., Monday, November 28) This low number should tell you how good Sam Houston State has been playing this season. Both teams are coming off a holiday tournament last week, but I feel Sam Houston State is being undervalued here and will win this game straight-up and move to 7-0 on the season. The Bearkats are 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 road games. Nevada is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a  winning road record.

The Pacers are one of the best ATS teams this season and this team is quietly getting the job done and staying off the radar for public bettors. They are 12-6 ATS on the season, including a 5-2 ATS road mark. They are deserving favorites here. The Clippers will be without their stars again here. And although this team is one of the deepest in the league, it’s still a work in progress and the Clippers haven’t been able to string together much consistent play. Indiana is coming in off an impressive blowout over the Nets and we think they play with a lot of confidence here in LA.

5 Unit Play. Take #783 Duke over Purdue (3:30p.m., Sunday, November 27 ABC) Purdue just does not handle prosperity well. Coming off a great win against Gonzaga, look for them to take a step back in the finals against Duke. That is the history of Matt Painter and this program. Purdue is 5-11 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 18 games. They are also 3-8 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 13 games following a win in their previous game.

The Lakers are a bad team and not a championship contender. But they have won four of five and are playing decently well right now. The same can’t be said for the Spurs, who started strong but have since fallen off a cliff. They have lost seven straight and covered only one of those contests. They seem to have fully embraced the tanking strategy, and we don’t see them putting up much of a fight here. The Lakers have covered in five of the last seven trips to San Antonio.

4 Unit Play. Take #678 TCU over Iowa (7p.m., Saturday, November 26 CBSSN) Just think this is a lot of points for both teams rebuilding. Iowa lost a ton of scoring from last season, and I question if they will be able to blowout TCU on a neutral court with very little atmosphere. TCU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.

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Minnesota has won five straight and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. They are playing the best they have so far this season. Charlotte is just not a good team right now and will likely be missing a couple top players here. We think this game has blowout potential and the Wolves should win by double digits. Minnesota does well on the road against bad teams (8-2 ATS run) and we expect a dominant performance here. We have stayed away from the Wolves a lot this season because of a slow start but it looks like this team is figuring things out and the Wolves seem like a good Buy Low option right now for bettors.

6 Unit Play. Take #895 Wisconsin over USC (1p.m., Friday, November 25 ESPN2) We will follow the line movement in this game, as USC opened as a slight favorite but now Wisconsin isa pick’em. Both teams went into overtime to lose yesterday, but I like the depth that the Badgers have. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. USC is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win in their previous game.

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4 Unit Play. Take #795 Over 131 in Oklahoma vs Nebraska (5p.m., Thursday, November ESPN) Over has hit 9 of the last 10 neutral site games with Oklahoma. The over has hit 6 of the last 8 neutral site games with Nebraska.

The Thunder have now gone over in seven straight and the oddsmakers can’t set a total high enough for this team right now. They are pushing the pace at one of the highest rates in the NBA and they just rely on scoring to be competitive more than defense. Denver hasn’t been playing great offensively but they have faced some strong defensive teams. This is a chance for them to open up the offense a bit and we think they have a monster night offensively as they have historically played well here. We are expecting another OKC track meet here as this should be a competitive game with both teams getting their share to put this one well over the posted number.

7 Unit Play. Take #742 Wisconsin over Dayton (2:30p.m., Wednesday, November 23 ESPN2) Wisconsin had no business winning the Maui Invitational last season in Las Vegas and they are underrated again in this tournament. Dayton already has a loss to UNLV and I just do not trust Anthony Grant to win big games. The Badgers are well rested, and they have won all 3 games this season by double-digits. Expect this to be a low scoring game where Wisconsin grinds out a victory, something they did most of last season.

2 Unit Play. Take #660 Arizona over San Diego State (10:30p.m., Tuesday, November 22 ESPN) These two teams have met a lot during the last decade despite not playing in the same conference. Just do not trust San Diego State to win big games, as they have a history of underachieving in the NCAA Tournament. Arizona scored over 100 points last night and I just do not believe San Diego State will be able to keep pace with them.

5 Unit Play. Take #651 Southern Miss over Winthrop (3p.m., Tuesday, November 22) The Eagles do not have any quality wins on the season, and I do not see that changes after Tuesday afternoon. Southern Miss has been on a strong ATS run of late covering the spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Winthrop is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

After a 5-game skid, the Cavs are swinging back in the other direction and have now won two straight. This team has been streaky lately but this looks like an excellent spot for them to continue their win streak against a Hawks team that plays better at home. The Hawks have dropped three of four ATS, and they got throttled by Boston on their recent homestand. The Cavs normally step up big at home in these marquee game type situations. Atlanta hasn’t had much luck here in Cleveland as they have covered in only one of their last six meetings. We see that trend continuing here on Monday.

4 Unit Play. Take #776 Tulane over Nevada (5p.m., Monday, November 21 Flo Sports Streaming) Both teams have played cupcakes thus far in 2022 and thus we will side with the favorite in this game. The Green Wave return a ton of experience and should be able to make some noise in year 3 under Ron Hunter. Nevada remade their team, likely for the better but Steve Alford is in a major rebuilding project, and I am not sure if he can turn it around. Tulane is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games played on Monday.

The Kings are the top ATS team in the league at 11-3 ATS. With all the big stories in the NBA this season, this team is flying under the radar. The Pistons are coming off a string of big games against big-name teams, and this matchup won’t move the needle for them as much as recent games against the Clippers, Lakers and Celtics. Sacramento is the No. 1 offense in the NBA and averaging more than 12 PPG more than the Pistons.

4 Unit Play. Take #724 Illinois -1 over Virginia (3p.m., Sunday, November 20 ESPN) We will follow the line movement in this game, as the Illinois opened as an underdog but now are favored. Virginia went on a 30-5 run to open the second half and I just do not see them being able to shoot that well again during any point in this game. Baylor dominated the other 30 minutes and Illinois should be ready to play and win this championship.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

2 Unit Play. Take #642 Pepperdine -3.5 over UC Irvine (8p.m., Saturday, November 19) The Anteaters are 2-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 road games. The Waves are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.

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OKC’s offense is humming, and they have gone over in five straight games and scored more than 120 in each of those. Actually, they have scored over 130 in three of those (one OT game) and over 140 in a non-OT game. Memphis has a middle of the pack defense, and we don’t see them slowing the Thunder down tonight. And Memphis has an exceptional offense as well that can work without key players as they will again be without Bane tonight, but this team has shown in the past that they can perform at a high level with top players out. And we are confident that Memphis will be more than happy to run with OKC tonight. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The last meeting saw 240+ points scored, and we think we will see the same type of game tonight.

7 Unit Play. Take #883 Baylor over Virginia (7p.m., Friday, November 18 ESPN2) Always like to play Baylor earlier in the season, as the Bears seem to start the season off with a long winning streak most years in nonconference play. This is a tough ask for Virginia, as they must fly across the country after the tragedy that occurred with their football team. They lost a game this week and they will be forced to make shots from the arc against this strong Baylor defense. Virginia is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games played on Fridays. Baylor is 14-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 neutral site games.

Sacramento is 10-3 ATS on the season and playing their best basketball of the season at the moment. This is starting to look an awful lot like a playoff team. They have won four straight: Golden State, Cleveland and Brooklyn were included in that bunch. They are coming off a 30+ point win over the Nets. They have the No. 2 offense in the NBA this season and are facing the league’s worst defense. We just think the Kings will be able to outscore the Spurs tonight. They have put up 120 or more in four straight and 153 against the Nets. They have also covered in 9 of 13 meetings and 4 of 5 in Sacramento.

The Mavs played a grudge match last night against the rival Clippers, who they have meet in the playoff quite a bit. That was no doubt a big game for them. Now they enter this one on a B2B and face a Texas rival. When two Texas teams play, we always try and look for a reason to take the underdog as they normally don’t want to get rolled over on. And this seems like a letdown spot for Dallas here after that big game last night.

4 Unit Play. Take #685 Iowa over Seton Hall (7:30p.m., Wednesday, November 16 FS!) We have seen the better team win a lot of these early season games despite being on the road. Tonight, this game should be no different, as Iowa always seems to start well early in the season. Seton Hall has a new coach and system. If Iowa can handle the pressure, they should win this game by close to double digits. Iowa is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Seton Hall is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.

4 Unit Play. Take #644 Saint Louis -2.5 over Memphis (9p.m., Tuesday, November 15 CBSSN) Really like this Billikens team and expect them to make the NCAA Tournament come March. They continue to play well at home and should win this game by close to double-digits. Memphis has talent but I just do not think they blend well under Penny Hardaway. Saint Louis is 25-12 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 39 home games.

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This Pelicans team has been inconsistent but they have played a road-heavy schedule this season so far and we think they will excel here at home against the Grizzlies. We think New Orleans has a higher ceiling this season. And the Grizzlies have been overrated on the road, where they have failed to cover in five straight games.

4 Unit Play. Take #855 DePaul -1.5 over Minnesota (7p.m., Monday, November 14 BTN) Minnesota should be better in year two under Ben Johnson, but he is in a another complete rebuild. They have one good player in Dawson Garcia, but they will struggle to win games easily in the season with a bunch of young freshmen. DePaul has a bunch of scorers on their roster and should be able to put up close to 80 points in this game. We will follow the line movement in this game and back the road team. The Blue Demons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Golden Gophers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win in their previous game.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

4 Unit Play. Take #752 Nevada over Grand Canyon (4p.m., Saturday, November 12 Nevada Sports Net) Nevada will me a much improved team in 2022-2023, picking up a couple of key transfers. The Wolf Pack have covered the spread in 5 straight games and are 59-27 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 88 games following an ATS win in their previous game.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

Cleveland is the better team right now and they have had one of the best starts to the season of any team. They enter, however, having lost two straight. Those were both close games, and the Cavs didn’t embarrass themselves. But they will be amped to get back on the winning track against the defending champs. Not only is Golden State playing mediocre basketball and bad defense, but they are getting their opponents’ best shot every night. Everyone wants to take down the champs, and we are sure Cleveland will bring their A Game here.

7 Unit Play. Take #678 Wisconsin over Stanford (7:30p.m., Friday, November 11 FS1) Jerod Haase just cannot seem to put together a solid NCAA Tournament team at Stanford. He recruits well but those high recruits just don’t seem to live up to their billing. This game is at American Family Field and it will be a strong crowd for Wisconsin, a state that loves events like this. Wisconsin has looked good in their exhibition games and scrimmages against teams that are better than Stanford. They have three solid players and if they make shots from the arc they will win this game by double digits. Wisconsin is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Stanford is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win in their previous game.

4 Unit Play. Take #609 Over 145.5 in North Dakota State @ Kansas (8p.m., Thursday, November 10 ESPN+) North Dakota State has gone over the posted total in 11 of their last 16 games played on Thursday. Kansas has gone over the posted total in 6 of their last 8 games following a victory of more than 20 points in their previous game. Look for Norm Roberts to want to score a bunch of points to make his attractive for another head coaching position.

3 Unit Play.  Take #306664 Under 138 in Texas Southern @ Texas Tech (8p.m., Thursday, November 10 ESPN+) The Tigers have gone under the posted total in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Red Raiders have gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 home games.

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The Hawks are normally very good at home and are coming off a loss to the Jazz here, and we don’t see them losing two straight at home. They have covered 10 of 14 against Philly in Atlanta, and we expect that trend to continue here on Thursday. Take the Hawks with confidence on Thursday.

The Bucks suffered their first loss of the season last time out at Atlanta. It was a blowout and an embarrassing loss. But this is a great bounce back spot for what has been the best team in the NBA. After a hot start, OKC has come back to earth a bit and has lost three straight SU and ATS. They are pretty much a one-man team with SGA leading the way, but the Bucks have the defensive pieces to slow him down. Both meetings last year were blowouts, and we expect more of the same here.

2 Unit Play. Take #772 LSU over UMKC (8p.m., Wednesday, November 9 ESPN+) LSU gets underway on Wednesday with a new coach but they still have talent. This play is more about going against UMKC, as they are coming off a loss at home to a division two team. LSU is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

Golden State is off to a tough start to the season, and we think this will be a close game. Sacramento is 3-1 ATS on the road this season, where they normally get generous odds from the bookies. And that certainly looks like the case tonight. Sacramento has won and covered three of four, and they are playing well at the moment.

4 Unit Play. Take #668 Wake Forest over Fairfield (8p.m., Monday, November 7 ESPN+) I look for even more improvement for Wake Forest in year three under Steve Forbes. Wake Forest was impressive last season going 25-10 and 13-7 in ACC play. They were under the radar and look for them to win this game by close to 20 points. The Stats got off to a hot start last season but struggled during MAAC play. I look for that to carryover into tonight’s game.

To say the Clippers got off to a slow start was an understatement. This team looked like one of the worst in the NBA and Kawhi Leonard has been sidelines again. But this team has won three straight and they are starting to play well together. Utah has been playing incredible basketball to start the season, but we don’t see this is a playoff team. The Clippers have some of the best depth in the NBA this season and we think they will take this game very seriously because of the slow start.

The Kings have been a strong underdog team on the season at 5-2 for the under. Sacramento has been playing solid defense the last couple games, and we think that will continue here on Saturday. Orlando has been playing in some high scoring games, so that has caused the oddsmakers to overinflate this total. We had this one handicapped at 220, so we think there is nice value here. We don’t see either team putting up a big point total here.

These teams have a long history for the under as they have played to the under in five of seven overall and 10 of 14 in the last 14 in Orlando. The Magic are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA thus far. They have been pretty solid defensively as they are in the upper half of the league for points allowed. We think they will be competitive in this game, and that won’t come from the offense so we think they will slow Golden State down. The Warriors haven’t been putting up crazy point totals lately. We don’t think they will here. Orlando has been averaging only 106 PPG on offense. We don’t see them getting too much over that tonight.

These teams are a combined 10-5 on the under this season. They met on Monday and the total wound up at 188, and that is a crazy total in the modern day NBA. That is the fourth game in five games that the Clippers have scored under the century mark. We don’t think the oddsmakers have adjusted this one enough.

Washington has been playing excellent defense, and we think this number is too high on Sunday. Boston has been in some high scoring games, but we think that this will be more of a defensive battle, at least in the current day NBA. Eight of the last 10 meetings have gone under the posted number. Both teams were off on Saturday, so we think there will be plenty of energy on the defensive end today.

Charlotte has been a decent bet this season so far at 3-2 ATS. They are coming in on a back-to-back and off a blowout loss at Orlando, but we think they were looking ahead to this game against the defending champs. Golden State has faced some heavy hitters in Miami and Phoenix the last two games, so we don’t think they will be too excited about a trip to Charlotte. The Hornets have won four of six meetings outright and we think they will put up a fight today.

These teams played here on Wednesday and Atlanta scored a five-point win. The Pistons are underrated and this is a possible play in tourney team. We don’t think they will play worse than Wednesday, and they were in that game all the way with a chance to win at the end. We think there’s a great chance they play even better as it’s tough to beat a team consecutive games like this.

Memphis is 4-0 against the total this season. Their offense has been humming, and we expect them to put up a big number here. Sacramento is well rested and will run with the Grizzlies for sure. Both teams are way down the list of defensive teams so far. All three meetings last season went over the posted number. Memphis scored 124 or more in all three games. We think this game will be competitive so we believe that Sacramento will get their points as well. We just don’t see a lot of defense being played here, and the offenses should be on full display. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Detroit is off to a slow start, but this team is not a bottom feeder this season. We think they are a contender for the play in tourney and a team in the rise. This is just too many points as a home dog. Detroit has played three of four on the road, but their one home game was a solid win, and we think they will be primed for a big performance tonight. The Hawks rarely play well here and are 0-4 ATS in their last four visits and 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings overall. The Hawks are 1-2 ATS despite playing all three at home against a weak schedule.

These teams have combined to go 5-1 on the under this season. OKC has only had one breakout game on offense and it’s unlikely they will tonight against one of the best defenses in the league and without their starting point guard. The Clippers will miss Paul George and his scoring. We think there is a real possibility the Clippers hold the Thunder to around the century mark, which would make this an easy cash.

These are supposed to be two tanking teams, but here they sit at 5-1 ATS on the season. But Utah has shown the ability to win games and not just cover, and they are 3-0 on the season and have looked very impressive. They have the No. 1 offense in the NBA thus far through three games. They are on a back-to-back here, but we don’t see that bothering this young team. We see another high scoring affair here and expect the Jazz to pull away in the fourth quarter.

Both teams are 2-0 SU and ATS, but one team is a championship contender and one team is playing over its head. We think this will be a high scoring game but we think this is where Utah comes back to earth a bit. New Orleans has looked very good to start the season. These teams normally play a high scoring game, and we expect the same here tonight but New Orleans wins by double digits. They might get 130+ on their own.

This is one of those matchups we look forward to each season as it’s pretty much easy money to take the Clippers… and you can pretty much bet them blindly. This is a one-sided rivalry because the Lakers are the Clippers biggest rival but the Lakers have more traditional rivals. So the Clippers always give it everything they have, especially since they are considered second tier in their city. When healthy, the Clippers probably have the strongest roster in the NBA, and they have a healthy roster to start the season. The Lakers look like they might have another long season, and this team will normally be overrated because they are the biggest public betting team in the NBA. We think the Clips will want to come out strong on opening night.

We don’t take many double digit favorites in the NBA, but we think this one is warranted. Minnesota has just crushed OKC in recent meetings. Like CRUSHED. Like all three games were decided by 30 or more. OKC was one of the best ATS teams in the league last season. We used them a lot. We will probably use them a lot midseason once this young team starts to gel. And they have a great leader in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. At some point, he will get the best out of this roster. But this team is much different than the one that covered so many games last season and there are going to be some growing pains. Minnesota has their best team in years and a legit contender. We think OKC runs into a buzzsaw here in the season opener.

The Sixers seem very solid heading into the new season and we think this team is in a great place and primed for a strong start and a possible championship run. Boston not only has the hangover from losing in the finals, but they had a turbulent offseason to say the last with their coach being suspended for the season and losing offseason acquisition Gallinari for the season with an injury. And we forget that this team started very slow last season before turning it on around the holidays, and we think a repeat could be in the cards. Philly has covered in seven of the last eight meetings. Their non-cover during that span? The 135-87 beatdown in February. We have no doubt the Sixers remember that game and they will want to play their best here against a team they normally exceed expectations against.

We are surprised that the Warriors have a chance to close things out tonight as we really liked the Celtics to win this series. They are not out of it yet, however, and we expect them to take care of business tonight at home. The spread normally hasn’t come into play too much in this postseason, and we don’t think it will come into play tonight as the team that wins normally does so by a large margin.

This series has worked out for the Zig Zag Theory to perfection, with each team trading wins/covers and the total going the opposite way each game. We still think Boston is the better team and we think they have a great chance for the outright win here. Curry went off in Game 4 after the Celtics had been in control most of the way through. But we expect a focused group tonight and we think they break the stalemate tonight with a chance to go back to Boston to close things out in Game 6.

The Warriors had some injury concerns with Steph Curry but it looks like he is good to go for Game 4. But we are not sure he will be 100% effective. If this was the regular season, he would probably take some time off to properly heal. And there is always the chance of reaggravating the injury as the Celtics are one of the most physical teams in the league. But even with Curry at full strength, we like the Celtics here. We think they are the superior team, and the hungrier one. The Warriors have a decent supporting cast for their stars, but the team goes cold too often unlike the best championship teams from Golden State. And then there are Draymond Green’s antics. He is a great defender but he is just not helping the team a lot in this series. With the Big Game 3 win, the Celtics have their eyes on the prize and we don’t see them blowing home court advantage here. We think they get another comfortable win tonight.

We think the Celtics are underrated in this series and we think they have a great chance to pull off the series win. We do think this series will go far. We saw Golden State dominate the postseason so far, and that is why we have this steep series line here, but we think the Warriors had a pretty easy path. Memphis is a young team that is still learning playoff basketball and Dallas still needs some pieces to be a championship contender. The Nuggets were a pushover. But Boston has had a much tougher path. They swept a Nets team that was one of the title favorites. They beat the defending champs in the next round and then the No. 1 seed Miami Heat in seven games, winning Game 7 on the road no less. They are more battle tested. And while we have a ton of respect for Golden State and what they have done, they aren’t as hungry as the Celtics and this isn’t the best team they have had during their championship runs. The Celtics are coming off a couple grueling series, but they have had three days off here, which will be plenty of rest. We think Golden State has been off too long for this and they should be a little rusty. Boston always gets up for this opponent and they have covered eight of the last nine meetings here, a trend that stretches back years since these teams don’t play often. Boston has lost the last two Game 1s, which put them in a hole in each series early. We think they bring their A Game here to get the upper hand and steal home court advantage. Boston was a Top 5 ATS team this season and often underestimated by the oddsmakers. We think that is the case here for Game 1 again, and we think the Celtics have a great chance for the outright win.

Miami is getting healthy again and this is too many points as this is the biggest spread in the series so far. We think this will be a very competitive game because the Heat have some players back and if they win they know they will be favored in Game 7 at home. Miami has covered in 11 of the last 15 meetings here in Boston.

Just when one team looks bad one game in these NBA Playoffs, they turn around and look dominant the next game, and point spread have not even come into play that much here in the postseason. This series has the look of one that can go all the way, and the next page in that script is for the Celtics to deliver a dominating performance tonight in front of the home fans.

Both teams have won a blowout game in this series. Game 1 was a free for all where there wasn’t much defense played in the first half and both teams were hot shooting. Game 2 saw lots of easy baskets in garbage time in another blowout. But this is such an important game in this series that we expect both teams to get serious about defense here. It’s very telling after two high-scoring games that the bookies haven’t made a major adjustment to this number. We think the books are begging the public to jump on the over here, but we will side with the books and sharp money here with a strong position on the under.

The Mavs have shown themselves to be very resilient in these playoffs. We don’t take much from their Game 1 performance. Just like Boston, they can bounce back here and if they win then they have the upper hand and home court advantage in this series. They will no doubt shoot a lot better than they did in Game 1. We expect a close, high scoring game here and we still think this will be a good series despite the Game 1 result.

We will give Boston a mulligan for their Game 1 performance. They didn’t come to play, and two starters being out did not help. Smart should be back tonight, and he will help on both ends of the court. This team is well coached and very talented. And they will be able to make the necessary adjustments, especially on the defensive end. We think they have a great chance to win outright here in a low-scoring affair.  

The Mavs are playing as well as they have all season and they have tons of momentum coming into this series. We expect a close, high scoring game here and think both teams will get their points. Dallas has covered in six of the last seven meetings here in Golden State and the over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings. Dallas has a great chance in this series and you know they want to steal Game 1 here.

Boston is head and shoulders the best defensive team in the NBA, and we expect a real low scoring Game 1 here. Boston is in Beast Mode as they are coming straight off their Game 7 against the Bucks. They put on a defensive clinic in Games 6 and 7, holding the Bucks to 95 and 81 points, respectively. The Heat are a Top 5 defensive team and they held the Sixers to under the century mark in three of the last four games. These teams will be feeling each other out here in Game 1 and we just don’t see a free flowing, high scoring game here. This is one of the lowest totals of the season in the NBA for good reason. We think we could see both teams wind up under the century mark.

We have been big on Boston this whole series and this is not going to change here for Game 7. This has been one of the strongest teams in the NBA all season after a slow start, and we feel they have a championship-caliber squad this season. They are hungry. They have also been one of the best betting teams in the NBA this season and one you can trust laying points. They have also covered in 12 of the last 16 meetings (one push).

This just seems like a 7-game series to us, and the Celtics just need a win here and they will be heavy favorites to advance at home. Besides Game 1, all their losses were games that could have easily won, but when they have won they have been dominant. This has been one of the best ATS teams this season and we think they are being undervalued again here on Friday as we have them as a slight favorite and we expect them to win outright.

As a Clippers fan, we know all too well that the Mavs have a knack for taking series to Game 7 despite all odds. We expect Dallas to lock down on defense tonight and Luka should go into Superman mode with the season on the line at home. They have been a different team at home in this series and both games have gone under, and we think we will see a repeat here tonight.

The Grizzlies seemed to have given their last gasp last time but still came up short after leading most of the game. Then more bad news came as word arrived that Ja Morant will likely miss the rest of the postseason. So this team for the first time this season knows that there are no reinforcements of their star coming to help, and during the regular season when Morant was out the team performed at a high level knowing he would be back and they just needed to keep the team afloat. Golden State is the better team in the better mental state, and we expect a comfortable win tonight.

Both Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix went over. Way over. Like a combined 41.5 points over in both games. Both games went under in Dallas, but Game 4 was just barely under and one of the many missed threes by the Suns would have sent it over the posted number. We expect a very competitive game here and think both teams will get their points. But mainly we think Phoenix will regain their offensive touch at home. They averaged 125 in the two games in Phoenix, and if they can get anywhere close to that, this total will sail over.

Embiid showed just how valuable he is to this team that looked dead in the water after Game 2. With him back in the lineup, it picked up the whole team and they won by 20 in Game 3 while holding the Heat to 79 points. Embiid, along with Doncic for Dallas, is one of the most important players in the NBA to his team’s success. With him back on the court, Philly is not only a threat to win this series but the NBA title as well. We think they are right back in this thing, and this series now has the look of one that could go the distance. We think the Sixers will serve court at home and even this thing up tonight.

The first two games in this series went under by a combined 49 points, and we still don’t think the oddsmakers made enough of an adjustment here. This is such a crucial game in this series and these teams have had extra rest so the energy for defensive intensity will be there. Boston is the No. 1 team in the NBA for points allowed and they have really been strong thus far on the defensive end, and the Bucks can play defense with anyone in the league when they exert themselves. We see both teams locking down defensively here once again and this one has a great chance to finish under 200 just likes Games 1 and 2.

Dallas had an off game in Game 1 and they still almost covered. They were outscored in the first three quarters and we think we will see a more complete game from them here as they play a close game with a chance to win. It looks like the Suns don’t have any answer for Doncic and we expect the rest of the team to step up and have a better game. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they will make some adjustments tonight to slow down the Suns offense.

Boston played very poorly in Game 1 and we expect this team to bounce back strong here. They have high expectations this postseason, and losing here would be devastating for their series chances. Boston had covered seven straight in this series before the Game 1 loss, and we think they match up well here and expect a comfortable win from the home team tonight.

We think this will be a series but we think Game 1 will be all Suns. They didn’t seem to miss a beat when Booker went down and they have played well despite that. They have covered in seven of the last nine meetings, and they have won the last three meetings by at least 7 points. We expect both teams to play strong defense here, but the Suns will pull away late for the comfortable win.

Dallas has covered four straight in this series and we think they are the superior team. Utah just doesn’t have it this season and we expect some big changes in the offseason, which will start tomorrow for the Jazz. Mitchell will probably play here and he is probably being forced back too soon in a desperate move and may hurt the team more than help on the court tonight. Dallas has some history in the postseason with series dragging on too long so we think they will treat this like a Game 7 and lock down on defense.

The Pelicans aren’t your typical 8 seed. They retooled the roster mid season and this team has some nice veteran leadership now and a strong roster. The Suns are a team we did not believe in last season. We were wrong on that front as they advanced to the NBA Finals, but they got a lot of good luck because of major injuries to opponents in their path. But they will not have that same type of luck this season and we see them facing some adversity as they already have taken a blow with the Booker injury. We expect a close game here and one that the Pelicans very much have a chance to win outright.

The Bucks lost game 2 and possibly one of their better players but we think this team plays great team basketball and they will want to use this loss as a wake up call and steal home court advantage back in Game 3. The Bucks have covered 11 of the last 12 meetings here in Chicago and we expect that trend to hold strong tonight.

We try to look at an NBA Playoff series beforehand and see how it plays out. We don’t think the Jazz have it this season and this team was really disappointing all season besides a few flashes where they looked like last year’s team. But we expect the Mavs to win this series, and they are a good team even without their star in the lineup. Doncic is questionable here, but we think they have a great chance to win without him as they did in Game 2. With the Game 2 win, Dallas has now covered in six of seven meetings. They are the much better defensive team, and that really matters in the postseason.

This is a very public line in our opinion. The Nets played a very good Game 1 and still came out on the losing side and Boston had control of things for much of the game. We feel that was their best chance for an upset in Boston and they blew it. We think that close scare will have Boston playing even better this time. There’s a reason Brooklyn was in the play in this season. This team dealt with a lot of roster issues but they were also one of the most disappointing betting teams in the NBA and always overvalued by the oddsmakers. That is the case again here in Game 2 as we think Boston earns a comfortable win.

Brooklyn has just been a mess this season. They haven’t been consistent and injuries are at fault somewhat but there also seems to be a lack of chemistry on this team. They face a Boston team that we think is a real contender, and we think Boston will want to get off to a good start in this series. They are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA and they are rested and hungry.

The Timberwolves are a great story this year. But we were hoping they won the play in game because we wanted to go against them in the first round, especially in this first game. This just seems like a team that is on the verge but not quite ready yet, and Memphis is a real contender this year. The Grizzlies have had extra rest and time to prepare for this matchup, and this doesn’t seem like a team that would be rusty entering the first game of the postseason. They have also owned Minnesota from a betting perspective. They have covered 24 of the last 32 meetings here in Memphis and 16 of the last 21 meetings overall. We think they will be ready for their moment in the spotlight here in Game 1.

Cleveland was one of the big surprise teams early in the season and they got here because of phenomenal defense. But this team fell off in the latter part of the season because that defense didn’t play as consistently and they faltered too much once they rid themselves of the underdog role and turned to the favorite. The Hawks are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. This team is playing extremely well right now and we think they win convincingly here. We think both teams step up on the defensive end.

The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. These two teams would probably sail over this total during the regular season in a meaningless game, but this is such an important game for both franchises that these teams need to step up the defense. The team that plays the best defense here probably wins, and both teams know it. Four of the last five games for Atlanta have gone under the posted total, and they played better defense down the stretch. We see that trend continuing tonight.

The Clippers played well down the stretch. Better than the Timberwolves. And they have had Paul George back and he has stepped right in and was not too rusty. The Clippers are 15-6-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Minnesota, and this is a place they always play well. With George back in the mix and no clear dominant team in the West, the Clippers have a chance to go far if they can make the playoffs, especially if they can get Kawhi back at some point. We think they will play to win this one and we think they have a great chance.

Dallas need a win for seeding and the Spurs have two road games coming up in the play in tourney in hopes to make the playoffs. While they would normally be up for an in-state rival, they won’t have any focus on this game at all. They don’t want to use too much energy here. We don’t see any defense from the Spurs here and key players will get limited minutes. The Mavs need to win and they will have time off during the play in tourney, so they will play hard here. Blowout.

The Hawks have gone under in three straight and we think the oddsmakers have posted another number too high for them tonight. The Heat are the No. 3 defense in the NBA for points allowed. Atlanta is not as strong offensively on the road as they are at home. Teams also want to ramp up the defense as the playoffs approach and the game changes a bit in the postseason. The under is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in Miami, and we think that trend continues here on Friday.

The Suns have had the No. 1 seed clinched for awhile. That has reflected in their play on the court as they have failed to cover in four straight and they have lost two of three outright. They come in on a back-to-back after a win over the Lakers last night. They probably had motivation there to send the Lakers packing from postseason contention. But now they head on the road for a B2B and we don’t see them really caring about this game too much. And they don’t want to risk injury. With the Clippers playing in the play-in, they can’t afford to rest here in the final games, and they need to keep momentum going, They are also actively trying to get Paul George back into the mix and to gel with the team before the play-in. So we think they will be real motivated here. They have won and covered in three of four and should have covered in Chicago but lost in OT as an underdog.

Three straight and six of the last seven have gone under the posted number. This is a rivalry and we think both teams dig deep on defense, especially with the postseason quickly approaching. Milwaukee has held Chicago under the century mark in five of the last seven meetings, including two of the last three meetings. Six of the last nine games for the Bulls have gone under the posted number. The bookies have had to post some big numbers because of the crazy scoring we have seen the last couple of months, but the postseason is coming fast and teams will take the games more seriously and dig deeper defensively. We think the bookies got this total wrong also.

1 Unit Play. Take North Carolina over Kansas (9:20p.m., Monday, April 4 TBS) The public is all over Kansas in this game and thus we will side with North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been playing better than Kansas in the tournament and I feel they have what it takes to win this game. Kansas will likely not shoot it as well as they did on Saturday. Carolina has a knack for winning close games of late and look for them to win a national championship on Monday.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports