40* W KENTUCKY/LOUISVILLE NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Louisville -11.5)

Few teams had a bigger positive turnaround from 2018 to 2019 than the Cardinals. Louisville finished 8-5, which they capped off with a 38-28 upset win over Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl.  

No one was expecting that after they finished 2018 a mere 2-10. They went from going without a single conference win to Tying for the 3rd best mark in the ACC at 5-3.  

They did all of this in the first year under head coach Scott Satterfield, who went 31-11 over his final 4 seasons at App St.  

Satterfield did step into a better situation than it may have appeared. A big reason they went 2-10 in 2018 is the players quit playing for previous head coach Bobby Pitrino.  Regardless, he proved that his success with the Mountaineers was no fluke.  

Louisville has a ton of talent back on both sides of the ball, including one of the top QBs in the ACC in Micale Cunningham. I’m really big on teams with a lot of continuity this year. I just think it makes all the difference with the lack of offseason work we had due to covid.  Cardinals also got in 7 spring practices. Might not seem like a big deal, but the ATS results early are definitely favoring teams that got to practice some in the spring. 

 I just don’t think people realize how good this team is. This is not say Western Kentucky won’t be a threat in C-USA this year, I just feel they are outclassed across the board in this matchup.  

They didn’t get any spring practices in and while there’s reason to be optimistic with Maryland grad transfer Tyrrell Pigrom at quarterback, the lack of an offseason will 100% make that transition a lot harder than it would have been in a normal year.  

These two teams played last year on a neutral site and Louisville won that game by 38-21 (led 31-7 and had a 415-288 edge in total yards.  I would be shocked if Louisville doesn’t win this game by at least 14 points. Give me the Cardinals -11.5! 

50* GA TECH/FLORIDA ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Florida St -12)

I got no problem laying less than 2 touchdowns on Florida State against the Yellow Jackets. I absolutely loved the hire of Mike Norvell as their new head coach. Norvell is an offensive genius that did some big things with Memphis. He's all kinds of talent to work with, as FSU returns 7 starters, including junior QB James Blackman. 

As for Georgia Tech, they are still in a major rebuilding phase. Last year under new head coach Geoff Collins, the Yellow Jackets parted ways with the option. That's a real tough transition as all the kids the recruited were for the option attack. This is a 3-4 year project before we see some real results. 

With Florida State returning nearly their entire defense and expected to have one of the top defensive lines in the country, I just don't know how the Yellow Jackets are going to score enough to keep this close enough to cover. FSU is simply more talented across the board on both sides of the football. Give me the Seminoles -12! 

40* UAB/MIAMI (FL) NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Miami -13.5) 

I was lucky enough to jump on the Hurricanes at -13.5 before it jumped to -14 and even -14.5. Clearly -13.5 is better than -14, but I still would recommend a play on Miami at the current line. 

Last year couldn't have ended much worse than it did. Miami closed the year on a 3-game losing streak. One of those a 24-30 loss as a 20-point favorite against FIU. They were also shutout in a 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech in their bowl game. 

You don't think this team had a chip on their shoulder in the offseason. I absolutely love the addition of Houston transfer D'Eriq King at quarterback. In 19 starts with Houston he completed 62% of his pass attempts with a 50-10 TD/INT ratio. He also rushed for 1,426 yards (5.6 ypc). He gives this team the spark needed to get this thing turned around in Manny Diaz's second season. 

As for UAB, who played in last year's C-USA title game and are the favorite to win their division and get back there in 2020, I don't think this team is as good as people think.

They won 9 games last year, 8 of those were against the likes of Alabama St, Akron, South Alabama, Rice, UTSA, Old Dominion, UTEP and North Texas. None of those teams finished better than 4-8. Their only win vs a team with a winning record was LA Tech, but that was one of the games the Bulldogs had star QB J'Mar Smith suspended. Give me Miami -13.5! 

40* ARKANSAS ST/MEMPHIS CFB SHARP STAKE (Memphis -17.5) 

I know Memphis lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State. I also know they are up against an Arkansas State team that is one of the better squads in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves also have a couple of solid option at quarter. 

I just don't think it's enough for Arkansas State to make a game of this. The big thing you have to keep in mind with Norvell's departure, is the fact that they hired within, promoting offensive line coach Ryan Silverfield. They also bring back offensive coordinator Kevin Johns. 

That continuity in the offense is huge. So is the return of senior quarterback Brady White. The loss of running back Kenneth Gainwell is a big blow, but they got talent at that position and should continue to get quality production out of the position with how much defenses will have to respect White and the passing game. 

The only thing that figures to slow down Memphis is turnovers. If they protect the ball, they should put up a big number in this game. Arkansas State has just 6 starters back (lost 7 of top 9 tacklers) on a defense that gave up 478 ypg and 34.2 ppg. 

The Tigers also don't figure to be all offense. I loved the hire of former Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre as the new DC. MacIntyre will take over a unit that returns 8 starters from a unit that gave up just 26.4 ppg and 384 ypg. Both top marks in the last 5 years. Give me the Tigers -17.5! 

50* S ALABAMA/S MISS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (South Alabama +15) 

I will gladly take the points with South Alabama in Thursday's matchup with Southern Miss. I'm just not that high on the Golden Eagles this year. There's a lot of hype around senior QB Jack Abraham, but he lost his top wideout and big deep threat in Quez Watkins (64 catches, 1,178 yards, 18.4 avg, 6 TDs).

Southern Miss also has a different offense now with offensive coordinator Matt Kubik coming over from ULM. Changing an offense can be tough to adjust to in one offseason and this has been anything but a normal offseason. 

The Golden Eagles 7-6 record is also a bit misleading. Their only win over a FBS team that finished with a record better than 3-5 was a 37-2 win over UAB, who I wasn't all that impressed with even though they made it to the C-USA title game (lost 49-6 to UAB). 

As for South Alabama, I like 3rd year head coach Steve Campbell. This team went just 2-10 last season, but played Nebraska tough in their opener (lost by 14 as a 35-point dog) and were a profitable 7-5 ATS on the season. 

The Jaguars have 15 starters back including sophomore quarterback Desmond Trotter, who started the last 4. Note that in the 8 games before Trotter took over SAU averaged just 14.6 ppg and 290 ypg. With him the offense improved to 26.0 ppg and 409 ypg. He's one of 8 starters back on offense. 

They also got 7 guys back on a defense that was better than expected last year. Despite only returning 4 starters, the Jags allowed just 30.7 ppg after giving up 38.8 ppg the previous year. 

I just think we are getting a great price on South Alabama because of their poor record. A couple breaks go their way and I could see them winning this game outright. Give me the Jaguars +15! 

50* AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chiefs covering the 7-point spread at home against the Titans. It's crazy to me how the public has fallen in love with this Tennessee team. Wins at New England and Baltimore are impressive, but the Chiefs are a whole different animal and this team is coming off a magical win last week where they turned a 24-0 deficit in the 1st quarter into a 28-24 lead at the half and won by 20. 

I get the Titans beat the Chiefs at home earlier this season, but KC had a 29-20 lead in that game in the 4th quarter and were up 8 with less than a minute to play. Chiefs had a 530 to 371 edge in total yards, 28 to 19 edge in first downs and Mahomes threw for 446 yards and 3 scores in his first game back from that dislocated knee (didn't have near the mobility he does right now). 

Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and 2 scores and they should have lost, so even if he has a big day I think KC still wins this going away. The Chiefs defense has really transformed into a top tier unit and keep in mind that while they gave up 31 to the Texans last week, Houston scored a TD on a block punt and were gift-wrapped another on a muffed punt that set them up with 1st and Goal at the 6-yard line. 

I also think Titans have to be running out of gas. They not only have won both of their playoff games on the road, but they also closed out the season at Houston in a must-win to even get into the playoffs. Winning 3 straight games on the road is tough, 4 in a row in 4 weeks is as difficult as it gets. Give me the Chiefs -7! 

40* NFL PACKERS/SEAHAWKS ATS NO-BRAINER (Seahawks +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Seattle covering as 4.5-point dogs against Green Bay. The Packers might be the worst 13-3 team I can remember. Green Bay had a mere +63 scoring margin this year. Every other team that won 12 or more games this season had a scoring margin of +117 or better if you take away the Saints at +117 the next best worst is the Chiefs at +143. 

I know Seattle has their flaws and all, but this team just finds a way to hang around even against teams that are more talented than them and I don't know that Green Bay is the more talented team here. Sure they have Aaron Rodgers, but there's not a lot else that wows you with this roster.

Note the Packers had just 3 wins this year against a playoff team. Two were against the Vikings and the other was against the Chiefs without Mahomes. The only other teams they played all season that made the playoffs were the Eagles and 49ers. They lost by 7 at home to Philadelphia and by 31 at San Francisco. Give me the Seahawks +4.5! 

50* NFL CHIEFS/TEXANS DIV ROUND TOP PLAY (Chiefs -9.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chiefs laying it on the Texans and winning this game by at least double-digits. Houston pulled out a miraculous overtime win over the Bills, as they were down 16-0 in the 2nd half and found a way to win. That's just Buffalo's inability to put teams away with their anemic offense. 

I know Houston was able to go on the road and upset the Chiefs 31-24 in the regular-season, but things just kind of unraveled for KC, as they actually jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the 1st quarter. The Chiefs defense just wasn't very good in that game and at that time they just weren't very good on that side of the ball. This defense is drastically better now than it was. 

The other big thing is the two weeks that the Chiefs get to prepare for this game. Few have been better than Andy Reid when getting two weeks to prepare for a team. He's 18-3 ATS in the regular season off a bye and 4-1 ATS in the playoffs. If you remember last year the Colts had a big Wild Card win at Houston (21-7) and then lost 31-13 at KC the next week. 

Simply put the Chiefs have the better head coach (not even close), the better quarterback and a massive home field advantage. Give me Kansas City -9.5! 

50* NFL VIKINGS/49ERS DIV ROUND TOP PLAY (49ers -7) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers winning by more than a touchdown at home against the Vikings. Hats off to Minnesota for their win at New Orleans last week, but no way do I trust the Vikings to pull off the upset here and I would be shocked if they kept this close. 

I just think the 49ers are hands down the better team and few teams needed that bye week more than San Francisco. The defense will be as healthy as it's been all in a long time with linebacker Kwon Alexander and safety Jaquiski Tartt back in the lineup. There's also a good chance Dee Ford will be able to get on the field in some capacity. 

I just think when they are right it's near impossible to pass against them and I just don't think the Vikings run game is strong enough to carry the load. One win in a big game doesn't do it for me when it comes to trusting Kirk Cousins in a spot like this. I think their inability to move the ball is going allow the 49ers offense to wear the Vikings defense down and create the separation needed to cover this number. Give me the 49ers -7! 

40* NCAAF TENN/INDIANA GATOR BOWL NO-BRAINER (Tennessee -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Volunteers as a slim 2.5-point favorite against the Hoosiers in the Gator Bowl. What a remarkable turnaround by the Vols this season. I don’t think anyone was thinking Tennessee could get to a bowl game after their 1-4 start, which included upset losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, as well as blowout losses to Florida and Georgia.

Sure the schedule got a lot easier, but this team deserves a lot of credit for closing out the season with 5 straight wins. They were also a money-maker for those that backed them, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7. 

As great as it would be for Indiana to get their first bowl win, the Hoosiers 8-4 record is a bit fluky, as they didn’t beat a single FBS team that finished the year with a winning record. They also had 3 wins by 7 or less points.  I get Tennessee’s resume in terms of wins isn’t much better, but they did at least have a couple of wins over bowl teams in Mississippi State and Kentucky, as well as a win over Missouri who would have been in a bowl if not for being banned from postseason play.  

Another thing is the Vols defense is built for this Indiana offense. Hoosiers were 13th in passing compared to 100th in rushing and Tennessee’s defense ranked 17th against the pass this year (28th overall in total defense 29th in scoring).  Give me Tennessee -2.5! 

50* NCAAF SUGAR BOWL VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Baylor +5)

Given what I’ve said about avoiding teams in this spot (losing their last game to miss out on the playoffs), you might think I’m going to stay clear of this one. However, I really like Baylor in this matchup. Georgia’s at the point where it’s national championship or bust. Baylor wants to get to that point, but are not there. They are still in the midst of a massive turnaround under head coach Matt Rhule. I think they show up here. 

Keep in mind Baylor hasn’t played in a bowl of this magnitude since they faced off against Michigan State in the 2014 Cotton Bowl.  Also, we saw Georgia fail to play well in this spot a year ago, losing by 7 as a 12-point favorite to Texas.  This line has also moved quite a bit in favor of Baylor, as it opened Georgia -7.5.

Bulldogs got a lot of guys sitting out either with injuries or to prepare to the draft. They have been decimated at wide receiver all year and that’s still a major problem. They are also going to be down 3 offensive linemen. As good as Jake Fromm is, they don’t have the weapons around him to be successful and even when they played bad teams they struggled to score. I think Baylor holds them in check and likely wins outright.  Give me the Bears +5! 

40* NCAAF ROSE BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Oregon +3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Ducks as a 3-point dog against the Badgers. As much as the numbers suggest these two teams are even, I think Oregon is the more talented team and they just might have been the 4th best team in the country. I loved how they put that crushing loss to ASU behind them and went out and routed Utah in the Pac-12 title game. I think the Ducks are going to be looking to send a message. 

 As for Wisconsin, they still might be wondering what happened in that Big Ten title game to Ohio State, where let a 21-7 halftime lead turn into a 21-34 loss.  Also the Badgers’ offense really relies a lot on running back Johanthan Taylor and rightfully so, but I think he struggles to have a big impact in this game. Oregon was 12th in the country against the run. I see this coming down to QB play and Herbert is light years better than Wisconsin’s Jack Coan. give me Oregon +3! 

50* NCAAF ALAMO BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Texas +7.5)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Texas covering as a 7.5-point dog against Utah. This is one of those situational spots that I look for right away when I start handicapping bowl games and that’s teams who lost in their final game to basically eliminate themselves from the playoffs. As much respect as I have for Kyle Whittingham and I know his bowl record is great, this an awful spot for the Utes.  

For Texas it’s a second straight year getting a team in this spot. Last year they faced Georgia after the Bulldogs blew their shot at the playoffs with a loss to Alabama in the SEC title game. Longhorns went on to win that game 28-21 as a 12-point underdog. They also improved to 2-0 under Tom Herman in bowls, as they crushed Missouri 33-16 as a 3-point dog in 2017. Herman also won his own bowl while at Houston and that too was a dog, as the Cougars defeated FSU 38-24 as a 7-point dog.  

I’m simply not going to get too much into the numbers, because I just don’t think they matter. It’s just near impossible for a team like Utah, who lost in the Pac-12 title game to miss out on the playoffs, to find any kind of motivation in a game like this.  Give me the Longhorns +7.5! 

50* NCAAF LIBERTY BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Kansas State +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas State getting points against the Midshipmen. I just don't think Navy is as good as people think. Midshipmen beat up on a lot of bad teams and when they took a step up in competition they often weren't up to the task, especially on defense. When Navy wasn't playing the likes of ECU, Holy Cross, Tulsa, USF, UConn and Army they gave up 37 ppg. 

Kansas State is a team to watch out for under head coach Chris Klieman. In his first year on the job he led the team to a win over Oklahoma and Mississippi State while also only losing by 3 to Texas. I just think this blue collar team will be locked in and have taken bowl practices 100%. I'm not saying they will completely shutdown Navy's option, but I think they can get enough stops to where their offense can create the separation needed to win here going away. Give me the Wildcats +3! 

40* NCAAF SUN BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Florida State +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Seminoles cashing in as a 4.5-point dog in the Sun Bowl against Arizona State. I just don't get why the Sun Devils are laying this big of a number here. It's not like Arizona State is at full strength, as star running back Eno Benjamin and top wide out Brandon Aiyuk are both sitting out this game to prepare for the draft. Sun Devils also had a number of their offensive coaches get canned before the bowl, so there's just no chemistry for this offense going into this game. 

Florida State will be without stud running back Cam Akers, but I just feel like too much is being made of that. While he's a special player, they are poised to still have plenty of success in this one, as they had the nations 33rd ranked pass offense and will be up against a ASU defense that ranked 114th against the pass. Give me Florida State +4.5! 

50* NCAAF ORANGE BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Florida -14) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Gators laying it on Virginia. It's a joke that the committee even put the Cavaliers in a New Year's Bowl. They won 9 games, but almost all of those were against a watered-down ACC. They lost by 15 to Notre Dame and were absolutely destroyed by Clemson in the ACC title game. 

Despite going 10-2, I just think people don't realize how good this Florida team is. Everyone is raving about LSU and they had a 28-21 lead in the 2nd half against LSU. Their only other loss was a mere 7-point defeat to Georgia, where they played about as bad as they could. 

Virginia's defense is not that good and they could be in real trouble here. Cavaliers are much better at stopping the run than the pass. That's not going to help them against the Gators, as Florida brings in the nations 17th ranked passing attack. 

Virginia is also not built to play from behind which they surely will in this game, as the Cavaliers finished a mere 112th in passing. They were a respectable 37th in rushing, but I don't see them having much success in that department either. Give me the Gators -14! 

40* NCAAF REDBOX BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (California -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Golden Bears winning by at least a touchdown against the Fighting Illini. I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and have a hard time understanding why a mediocre Cal team is laying this many points with how much they struggle to score. 

What people fail to realize with the Golden Bears is they were a different team when quarterback Chase Garbers was healthy. They were 6-0 in games he started and finished and 1-5 when he either left with an injury or didn't play. The offense is still limited with him, but Illinois is a team they can have success against, especially considering the Illini ranked a mere 110th vs the run. 

As for the Illinois offense, it's hard to see them doing a lot against this stingy Cal defense, especially when you factor in that the Illini were 120th in the country in total offense, averaging just 319.7 ypg. They were 110th in passing and 93rd in rushing and will be facing a Cal defense that finished 26th against the run. Give me the Golden Bears -6! 

40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with New York covering as a 4.5-point dog against the Eagles. Most will look to back Philadelphia in this one, as they are the team with everything to play for. I just don't trust the Eagles at all. They are primed for a letdown off that huge win over Dallas, where they put everything they had into that game. They are also decimated on offense with their top 3 receivers and tight end Zach Ertz all out with injuries. Giants have been playing well down the stretch and I look for Daniel Jones to have a big day here against a shaky Eagles secondary that was very fortunate against Dallas (Prescott missed a lot of wide open guys and the receivers dropped several passes). Give me the Giants +4.5! 

50* NFC WEST PLAY OF THE YEAR (Cardinals +7.5) 

I love the value here with the Cardinals at +7.5 and would be taking them at anything over a field goal. Rams are not going to be the least bit interested in playing this game after last week crushing loss to the 49ers that ended any hopes they had of sneaking into the playoffs. Hard for a team that was in the Super Bowl a year ago to get up for a meaningless Week 17 game. Cardinals on the other hand have shown they want to finish the season strong and even if Murray can't go I like them to win this game outright. Give me Arizona +7.5!

40* NFL PUBLIC MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Bengals +3)

I'll take my chances here with Cincinnati covering as a 3-point home dog against the Browns. Cincinnati has the worst record in the league and locked up the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. While there's a ton of excitement with the likelihood of landing Burrow with that pick, I expect Cincinnati to show up in a big way in the finale, as they all know this could be Andy Dalton's last start with the franchise. Bengals have also been playing well down the stretch. As for Cleveland, they were officially knocked out of the playoff race with last week's gut-wrenching loss at home to the Ravens and I just don't see them showing up for a meaningless game. In my opinion the wrong team is favored. Give me the Bengals +3! 

40* NCAAF CAMPING WORLD BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (ISU +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones as a 3.5-point dog against the Irish in the Camping World Bowl. Notre Dame ranked No. 15 and 10-2 compared to ISU at just 7-5. 

 I think this line is begging for the public to take the Irish and from what I’m seeing that’s the case with more than 70% of the bets on ND.  I just don’t know that I’m quite a believer in this Irish team. Their best wins were against Va Tech, USC, Virginia and Navy. They trailed Virginia at the half, beat USC by 3 and Va Tech by 2. How motivated are the Irish playing in the Camping World Bowl after playing in the CFP last year and expecting to get back to it this year?

Iowa State definitely a lot better than their record. They were a 2-point conversion away from beating Oklahoma on the road and lost in the final seconds at Baylor, two teams who played for Big 12 title.  Notre Dame averaged 177 rushing yards and 253 passing yards, but was against teams that allowed 155 on the ground and 238 via the pass. Two good defenses ND faced in Georgia and Michigan they did next to nothing. Scored 17 points 321 yards against Georgia and 14 points 180 yards vs Michigan. Both games failed to rush for 50 yards. ISU 33rd vs the run giving up 133.8 ypg. only gave up 3.9 yards/carry.  

Cyclones are 15-3 ATS under Campbell vs teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game and 20-7 ATS as a dog, 6-0 ATS with 2 or more weeks to prepare. Give me Iowa State +3.5! 

50* NCAAF HOLIDAY BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Iowa -2) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes laying less than a field goal against the Trojans. Very contrasting styles with USC being up tempo want to outscore teams, Iowa great defensive team want to grind out victories. My money is on the Iowa defense winning out. 

USC's big strength is their talent at WR. Want to attack deep, Iowa does a great job of keeping teams in front of them not giving up big play.  Trojans have no running game. Will be one dimensional.  

Trojans QB Slovis has been good, but had two games with 3 picks. He’s also not been protected well. Sacked 18 times last 7 games he’s played.  Iowa’s offense has held them back this year, but they were better down the stretch and I think there’s plenty of holes in this USC defense that was 83rd in total defense and ranked 76th against the run and 99th vs pass. Iowa favorite of -6 or less 13 times since 2015 won and covered all 13. Give me the Hawkeyes -2! 

40* NCAAF TEXAS BOWL ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas A&M -6.5) 

Jimbo Fisher 6-2 bowls (1-0 at Texas A&M) - Last year absolutely trounced NC State 52-13 as a similar priced 7-point favorite. Outgained Wolfpack 541 to 273. Aggies only went 7-5, but all 5 losses were against teams who at the time were ranked in the Top 10. Three different times they played the No. 1 team in the country (Clemson, Alabama and LSU).  While some of those were pretty lopsided, you could definitely argue this is the best 7-win team in the country.  

Mike Gundy 9-4 bowls, won 3 straight, last year beat Missouri 38-33 as a 8-point dog. However, Cowboys best win this season was at ISU in a game they probably shouldn’t have won, Outgained by 66 yards and had just 14 first downs to Cyclones 30. Only 3 scores came on TDs of 50 yards or more, also had a defensive score. OK State potentially without 2 best players in WR Tylan Wallace and QB Spencer Sanders. Do have an elite back in Chuba Hubbard, but I just wonder if he will be able to have success against a really good Aggies defense that was 29th against the run. Allowed just 4 yards/carry almost a full yard under opponents average.  Give me Texas A&M -6.5! 

40* NCAAF MILITARY BOWL ATS SLAUGHTER (UNC -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels making easy work of Temple. I just don't get the love for this Owls team. They went just 5-3 in the AAC and if not for a horrible start by Memphis in their upset win over the Tigers, they would have finished 4-4 and failed to beat any of the top teams. The defense for Temple was great against all those bad offenses they faced, but against the better offenses they struggled and this UNC offense is the real deal. 

Mack Brown has really changed things around with the Tar Heels in year one and he's got a very respectable 13-8 record in bowl games. No doubt UNC will be motivated in their first bowl game with him. As for Temple head coach Rod Carey, his teams have gone 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in bowl games with the average loss by 25 ppg. Clearly he doesn't know how to get his team ready for postseason play and more than anything the Owls are outmatched in this one. Give me North Carolina -4.5! 

40* NCAAF INDEPENDENCE BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Louisiana Tech +6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the 6.5-point spread against Miami in the Independence Bowl. I actually think Louisiana Tech is going to win this game outright. The Hurricanes closed out the regular-season with back-to-back losses to FIU and Duke, two teams they should have beat no problem. 

I just don't see them flipping the switch here against the Bulldogs. Miami's got several players skipping the bowl game to prepare for the draft. That includes 3 of their top guys in the front even, with senior linebacker Michael Pinckney and defensive ends Trevon Hill and Jonathan Garvin. 

Louisiana Tech will have no problem getting up and taking advantage of an uninterested Miami team. Bulldogs will have plenty of support with this feeling a lot like a home game with it being played in Shreveport. Not to mention the chance to beat a storied program like the Hurricanes. Give me Louisiana Tech +6.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -4.5)

I'll take my chances here with Minnesota covering the 4.5-point spread at home against the Packers. Green Bay might have Aaron Rodgers and one of the best records in the NFC, but I just don't think they are anywhere close to as good as people think. The books definitely seem to agree with this line being 4.5 with Minnesota likely down their top two packs. 

Green Bay really isn't good on either side of the ball. Packers are 22nd in total offense at 336.6 ypg and rank in the bottom half of the league in both rushing and passing. Green Bay's defense comes in having held each of their last 3 opponents to 15 or fewer, but that's come against the Giants/ Redskins and Bears. Packers are 23rd against the pass and 25th against the run. 

Vikings are 32-15 ATS at home under Zimmer and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 as a home favorite of 7 or less. Give me Minnesota -4.5! 

40* UCF/MARSHALL GASPARILLA BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (UCF -15) 

I'll take my chances here with UCF now that this line has dropped down to 15. I just don't get why the public is all over Marshall in this game. The Knights are hands down the better team. UCF went 9-3, but were dangerously close to another 12-0 regular season, as those 3 losses came by 7-points or less. 

While not head-to-head, I do think it's worth noting that UCF beat the best team in C-USA, FAU, by a score of 48-14 and led 42-6 in the 4th quarter. Marshall lost to AAC runner-up Cincinnati by a final score of 52-14. The Knights also should benefit from this game being played so close to home, as it's in St. Petersburg. Give me UCF -15! 

50* CHIEFS/BEARS SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -6) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chiefs winning by at least a touchdown on the road against the Bears. Kansas City needs to win here to keep their hopes of getting a first round bye alive and I also feel like the Chiefs want to keep the momentum going into the playoffs.

You also got KC head coach Andy Reid facing off against former assistant Matt Nagy and I think not only that gives the Chiefs an edge, but also adds a little more incentive. The Bears are also sitting at 7-7 and out of the playoff race, so it wouldn't come as a shocker for them to not play up to their potential. 

More than anything, I just don't see Chicago being able to keep pace offensively with Mahomes and this high-powered KC offense. Not to mention the Chiefs defense has made a remarkable turnaround not only from last year but from the first month of the season. KC's stop unit has been one of the best in the league over the last 4 weeks and should have no problem keeping Trubisky and the Bears in check. Give me the Chiefs -6! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Lions +7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Lions cashing in a cover as a touchdown dog against the Broncos. I just think Denver has no business laying this kind of a number against any team, especially after that demoralizing performance last week at Kansas City. One that caused Von Miller to voice his frustrations with the direction of the team. 

Detroit's has been on a free fall with 7 straight losses and haven't exactly been competitive in their last two, which is why I think we are getting such great value. No team wants to end the year on a massive losing streak and with a not so winnable game next week against the Packers, I expect the Lions to give it all they got in this one. 

A really good sign that Detroit is still trying to win is the fact that running back Kerryon Johnson is willing to come back from injury this late in the season. Johnson was a difference maker win healthy and the Broncos run defense has not been good of late. I think he has a big game here and I actually like the Lions to win outright. Give me Detroit +7! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals PK) 

I'll take my chances here with Cincinnati going on the road and beating the Dolphins in Sunday's matchup of two AFC bottom feeders. Since going back to Andy Dalton at quarterback the Bengals have been a much more competitive team. They do come in off a lopsided 34-13 loss at New England, but they really beat themselves with 5 turnovers. Cincinnati actually outgained the Patriots 315 to 291. 

Joe Mixon was an absolute beast against New England rushing for 136 yards on 25 carries and that's now two straight monster games for him, as he had 146 yards on 23 attempts the week before against the Browns. Mixon should continue to roll here as the Dolphins come in with the league's 31st ranked run defense, giving up 140.9 ypg. 

I also don't love the spot here for Miami. Winning actually hurts the Dolphins more than it helps them, as they are in a position to get the No. 2 pick in the NFL draft if they were to lose out. I just think they have a hard time getting up for this game. If there's a game Miami will get up for it's next week's road game at New England. Give me the Bengals -110! 

40* NFL SHARP MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Colts -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Colts bouncing back from that ugly loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football and snapping their 4-game losing streak with a blowout win at home against the reeling Panthers. 

Carolina has already fired head coach Ron Rivera and while most teams respond to their head coach getting fired with a big effort, the Panthers have arguably gotten worse. Panthers have completely thrown in the towel on this season with them going to Will Grier at QB and with the way their defense is playing it's a recipe for disaster. Carolina last 5 games have saw them give up 29 to Falcons, 34 to the Saints, 29 to the Redskins, 40 to the Falcons and 30 to the Seahawks. 

Brissett really needs a good game here to solidify his spot as Indy's starting QB and I expect a big effort from the Colts defense after that awful showing against New Orleans. Give me the Colts -6.5! 

50* NCAAF PRE XMAS BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (SMU -3) 

I get that this is technically a home game for FAU, but I just don’t think that’s as big of an advantage as people make it out to be. Not to mention the Owls don’t have the biggest following to start with. I also don’t think there’s near as much hype around this team now that Lane Kiffin has left the program to be the new head coach at Ole Miss.  

Not only do I think Kiffin leaving is a big psychological blow to the Owls, but I think his departure really hurts them from an X and O standpoint. Kiffin is really good at game planning for opponents and he also was the guy calling the plays. I really think the FAU offense is going to be out of sync in this game and that’s a big time problem, because their only hope of beating SMU is to outscore them.  

Let’s not also look over the fact that FAU really didn’t beat anyone this season of note. Their best wins are against the likes of WKU, Southern Miss and UAB. In their two big step-up games in non-conference they got annihilated at Ohio State and lost 48-14 at home to UCF.  

As for the Mustangs, they went 10-2 with their only two losses coming by 6-points at Memphis and by 7-points at Navy. Two games they could have easily won, as they outgained Memphis and led Navy 21-10 at the half. I mentioned how FAU got rolled by a team out of the American in UCF, SMU destroyed North Texas out of C-USA 49-27.  

I really think SMU is going to put up 40+ in this game. A mark they hit 8 different times during the regular season. I just don’t think the Owls can come anywhere close to that without Kiffin’s guidance. Give me the Mustangs -3!

40* NFL PUBLIC MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Bengals +10) 

I'll take my chances with the Bengals as a double-digit home dog. It’s never easy betting against the Patriots,especially coming off a loss, but I just think there’s too much value here with Cincinnati in this one.

The Bengals could have easily thrown in the towel on this season and just played for the No. 1 pick in the draft. That clearly wasn’t on the agenda, as they decided to go back to veteran quarterback Andy Dalton after benching him in favor of Ryan Finley. Bengals won Dalton’s first game back against the Jets two weeks ago and should have won last week at Cleveland, as they were the better team in that matchup.

Dalton gives this Bengals offense life and defensively this team has been better than you would expect for a team that has a 1-12 record. Cincinnati has only given up more than 27 points twice all season and that was against the 49ers and Ravens.

With the way the Patriots offense is struggling to move the football right now, I think the Bengals’ defense is going to play well in this one. Not to mention there’s a pretty decent chance Cincinnati takes this one personal with the news of New England filming then. This went from just another game to a matchup where I could see the Bengals treating it like their Super Bowl.

As crazy as it might sound, I think there’s an outside shot the Bengals not only cover but win this game outright. Give me Cincinnati +10.

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Bears +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Chicago covering the 4.5-point spread at Green Bay. The Bears have finally came alive on offense and that's a scary thing for any team going up against this them, as they are still playing at an elite level defensively. 

Green Bay's offense has struggled quite a bit here of late. They are only averaging 18.8 ppg in their last 5 and that's with them scoring 31 against the Giants. Last week they put up 14 points in the 1st quarter against the Redskins and then managed just 6 the rest of the way.

It just feels like any time this team goes up against a top tier defense they really struggle to produce. They are only averaging 18.5 ppg in their last 4 games against the Bears and only managed 10 points on 213 total yards in the first meeting against Chicago this season. I think the Bears not only cover, but win this game outright. Give me Chicago +4.5! 

50* ARMY/NAVY SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Army +10.5) 

I'll take my chances with Army as a double-digit dog. I just think there’s a ton of value here with the Black Knights in this one.

Forget about how Army didn’t meet expectations this year. A win here and nobody will care about what they weren’t able to accomplish this season. They are going to bring it on Saturday and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they pulled off the upset and won their 4th straight in the series.

The big thing to keep in mind with Army’s 5-7 record is they were on the wrong end of a lot of close games. In fact, their only loss by more than 9 points all season was their regular-season finale at Hawaii which saw the Rainbow Warriors return a pick 100 yards for a score. Instead of likely losing 38-45, they fell 31-52.

The numbers also suggest these two are a lot closer in terms of talent than the line would suggest. Both are elite rushing teams. Navy was No. 1 in the country in rushing and Army was No. 2. Both are also strong defensively. Midshipmen finished 33rd in total defense (324.5 ypg) and the Black Knights were 29th (337.8 ypg).

Something else to keep in mind is that while Navy went 7-1 in AAC play, they were very fortunate not having to play either UCF or Cincinnati out of the East. I just don’t think the Midshipmen are quite as good as people think. Give me Army +10.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles -9)

I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia winning by double-digits at home against the Giants on Monday Night Football. I know the Eagles are a big favorite here, but after last week's loss to the Dolphins dropped them to 5-7, Philadelphia's backs are firmly against the wall and it just seems like whenever the Eagles are in this spot they deliver in a big way. I think a lot of people are expecting Eli Manning to come out and play well after not suiting up the last 11 weeks and I just don't think that's going to be the case. I'm in the belief the Eagles didn't give the Dolphins the respect they deserved and that defense will respond in a big way. Note that in the previous 4 games Philadelphia had allowed 17 or fewer points and in their last home game held Russell Wilson to 174 passing yards on 13 of 25 attempts. The other big thing here is the Giants defense. New York is giving up 30.8 ppg and 404 ypg away from home this season. Give me the Eagles -9! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Saints -2) 

I'lll take my chances with New Orleans laying less than a field goal at home against the 49ers. I not only think this is a great price to back the Saints at home, but I also think the spot heavily favors New Orleans.

The 49ers are a great team and I just feel like whenever an elite team suffers a loss the public’s first thought is they can’t lose two in a row. Sometimes that’s a valid theory, but I don’t think it applies here. It’s hard enough playing back-to-back road games in the NFL. The 49ers must try and do so after playing in the biggest game of the week and in one of the toughest places in the NFL to get a win in a game of this magnitude.

Not only that, but New Orleans gets the luxury of having an extra 3 days to prepare for this game because they were one of the six teams to take the field on Thanksgiving Day. That extra rest is huge, especially this time of the year.

A lot of attention has been given to the 49ers defense and rightfully so, but I think given the spot and just how talented Drew Brees is, especially with his ability to get rid of the ball quickly, this is one of those games where their defense could struggle. Since Sean Payton took over as head coach the Saints are 9-2 ATS vs teams who allow 17 or fewer points/game.

When people talk about New Orleans it’s usually centered around Brees and the offense, but they got a top notch defense this year. They 10th in the NFL, giving up just 323.5 ypg. The big stat however is that they own the league’s No. 1 ranked run defense. I think we have seen some limitations to Jimmy G and the 49ers passing game here of late and I just think they are going to have a hard time moving the ball with how much they figure to struggle to run the ball.

It’s also worth pointing out that when New Orleans has been matched up against the leagues best, they have been an absolute money maker. Saints are 9-1 ATS under Payton in games against an elite team that is outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Not only have they covered just about every game, they are winning by an average of 10 ppg. Give me New Orleans -2!

40* NFL VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Redskins +14) 

I'll take my chances here with Washington getting two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday. The Redskins have something going right now and I just think the line here is a reflection of their overall body of work and now how they are playing. I know Haskins is a major work in progress, but they have got the running game going and this Green Bay defense is susceptible to big plays. The Packers ended up winning by 18 last week at the Giants, but a lot of that was Rodgers ability to pick apart a bad New York secondary. Redskins secondary ranks in the top half of the league in yards allowed and Green Bay doesn't have the best running game to take advantage of their weakness defensively. Give me the Redskins +14! 

40* NFL SHARP MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Bengals +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Bengals getting 7.5 on the road against the Browns. Cincinnati showed a lot of heart and fight getting their first win of the season last week against the Jets and I think we are going to see this team continue to play hard over the final month of the regular-season. As for the Browns, their playoff hopes just took a massive blow in their loss to the Steelers and I just don't understand how this team can be laying a touchdown against any team in the league right now. Andy Dalton is a massive upgrade at QB for Cincinnati over Ryan Finley and they are expected to get back wide out John Ross. I not only think there's a good chance the  Bengals cover, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Give me Cincinnati +7.5! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bucs -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Tampa Bay laying just a field goal at home against the Colts. The Bucs are going down with a fight and this team is off two really impressive wins. They won at Atlanta 35-22 stopping a red-hot Falcons team in their tracks and last week laid it on the Jaguars 28-11. As for the Colts, they are headed in the opposite direction. Indy has lost 4 of 5 and just gave the game away last week to the Titans. I just think the offensive injuries for the Colts are getting too much for them to overcome and I really don't like the matchup here for Indy with how good the Bucs are at defending the run. Give me Tampa Bay -3! 

50* LIONS/VIKINGS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Lions +13) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Lions catching double-digits against division rival Minnesota on Sunday. The Lions are just 3-8-1 and have lost 5 straight, but the talent is there. Of their 8 losses this season, only one has come by more than 8 points and their largest deficit is by just 12. They have had the lead in so many of their games this year and just haven't been able to finish. I just don't see this team laying down against a division opponent and I don't love this spot for Minnesota coming off that crazy loss to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Not only will the Vikings be playing on short rest, the Lions will have had 3 extra days of prep time after playing on Thursday last week. Give me Detroit +13! 

50* CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Georgia +7.5) 

I'll take my chances with Georgia getting the touchdown and the hook in the SEC title game. I just think this is too good a price to pass up with Georgia in this matchup, as they are more than capable of winning this game outright.

All the talk is going to be centered around LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and the LSU offense and how Georgia won’t be able to keep pace. It’s hard to blame the public for their fascination with Burrow. He’s been exceptional and is a lock to win the Heisman Trophy.

My focus is on the other side of the ball, where I feel Georgia is the superior team. The Bulldogs are 2nd nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 10.4 ppg and are 4th in total defense, giving up just 257.0 ypg. They are No.2 in the country against the run (71.1 ppg) and No. 15 against the pass (186.0 ypg). Georgia hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a single game this season and if they can keep that streak alive I think they win here outright.

I also like the fact that the Bulldogs have been in this spot before under Kirby Smart, as they have played in the SEC title game each of the last two years and were in the championship games just two seasons ago. I also think you can’t overlook the fact that this game means so much more to Georgia. The Bulldogs need to win to get into the playoffs, while LSU knows in the back of their minds that they are in even with a loss. Give me Georgia +7.5.

40* NCAAF CHAMP SATURDAY ATS SLAUGHTER (Cincinnati +10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bearcats as a double-digit dog against the Tigers. The biggest thing you got to take into account with last week’s matchup between these two teams is that game meant everything to Memphis and next to nothing for Cincinnati. The Tigers had to win that game to clinch the AAC West, while the Bearcats already had their spot in the title game locked up.

Sure, Cincinnati put up a fight and wound up covering the spread, but there’s no doubt in my mind they held some things back that they are going to use in this game. They also used that game to give red-shirt freshman Ben Bryant his first start. Bryant did throw two picks in his debut, but he also had his moments. Bryant completed 63% (20-32) of his attempts for 229 yards and threw a 4-yard TD pass. He also rushed for a 12-yard score.

They gave Bryant the start to let starter Desmond Ridder rest his ailing shoulder, but it was such an encouraging performance that they are going with him again. Keep in mind that Ridder had not played well in the Bearcats previous two games, as he was just 18 of 43 (42%) for 140 yards in games against Temple and USF. Ridder had also not thrown for more than 172 yards in 5 straight games.

Giving up 34 points and 432 yards might not look all that great, but that was the Tigers lowest offensive output in total yards in their last 8 games. Memphis also benefited from running the opening kick by 94 yards. I expect Fickell to have an even better defensive gameplan in the rematch and I think we see a little more urgency out of the Bearcats defenders. Give me Cincinnati +10!

50* OREGON/UTAH PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Oregon +7) 

I just think we are getting too much value here with the Ducks getting a touchdown. Utah is simply overvalued because they have not only covered 8 straight games, but dominated in the process.

I also feel like Oregon’s lackluster performance against Oregon State has people hesitant to take them. That was 100% to be expected. In fact, the Beavers were my favorite play during Thanksgiving Week, simply because I knew the Ducks would struggle to play well off that loss to Arizona State.

I think the biggest thing here to Oregon putting that loss to the Sun Devils behind them is what’s at stake for Utah in this game. I think the Ducks can find all the motivation they need here playing spoiler and ruining the Utes hopes of making the playoffs. It’s also not the worst consolation winning here and getting to play in the Rose Bowl.

I think a lot of people look at Utah as being the far superior team, but I just don’t buy it. These two both went 7-1 against their 8 common opponents and the offensive numbers were almost identical in these games. Oregon averaged 34.5 ppg and 449 ypg, while Utah averaged 35.3 ppg and 448.6 ypg.

While the Utes did post slightly better defensive numbers in those games, I like how the Ducks matchup with the Utes offense. Utah has a pretty balanced offense, but the running game is what makes it all click. Oregon has a top tier run defense, as they are only giving up 106 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry against the run. Utah is also great at stopping the run, but the Ducks have an elite QB in Justin Herbert who can keep them on track. Give me Oregon +7!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Dallas as a small road favorite. For me it comes down to quarterback play and who I trust more to make the big plays when needed. It’s not really much of a debate in my eyes. Dak Prescott is far from elite, but he’s a heck of a lot better than Mitch Trubisky.

Not only do the Bears have a liability at quarterback in Trubisky, but they don’t have any real weapons at receiver or tight end and the running game has been non-existent. Chicago has rushed for more than 90 yards just twice all season and only once in their last 10 games. When you can’t effectively run the ball on first down, you end up with a lot of 3rd and long situations and Trubisky isn’t a guy that convert those on a consistent basis.

I’m also not buying the thought that the Bears have turned their season around with 3 wins in their last 4 games. Especially when you take into consideration that two of those were against the Lions and the other was against the Giants and they won all 3 by 7 or less.

Sure the Cowboys were embarrassed on Thanksgiving by Buffalo, but that’s a really good Bills team. They also hurt themselves in that defeat, as they only managed 15 points despite putting up over 425 yards of total offense. Give me Dallas -3!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Seattle laying less than a field goal at home on Monday Night Football. I just think Minnesota is getting way too much respect here coming off of their bye. Seahawks are 9-2 on MNF since Pete Carroll came to town, which speaks volumes to just how tough it is to win at CenturyLink Field in prime time games. The Vikings clearly aren't a bad team with a 8-3 record, but it worth noting that they currently don't have a single win against a team that currently has a winning record. In their last 3 games they lost at KC without Mahomes, won at Dallas by 4 despite getting outgained by 79 yards and had to rally from 20 down to beat the Broncos at home. Seattle is also a team that I think has gotten better with each week and with a win can take over the top spot in the NFC West and put themselves in a position for a first round bye. Give me Seattle -2.5! 

40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS MASSACRE (Chiefs -10) 

I'll take my chances here with KC not just beating the Raiders but laying it on Oakland. Chiefs are as healthy as they have been in a long time and Andy Reid is as good as it gets coming off a bye. Reid is 17-3 as a head coach off a bye week in the regular-season. With a chance to basically lock up the AFC West with a win against the Raiders, I think we see the Chiefs make a statement Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead. Give me Kansas City -10! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (49ers +6) 

I'll take my chances here with the 49ers all day long at this price. The Ravens are a great team, but Baltimore is way overvalued coming off that big blowout win over the Rams on MNF. If there's one team that's built to slow down Lamar Jackson and that high-powered Ravens offense, it's this 49ers squad. San Francisco's got the talent up front to keep Jackson from running wild. At the same time, I think the 49ers are also good enough to go score for score with Baltimore. I think this going to be tight the entire way and this is just too many points to pass up. Give me the 49ers +6! 

40* NFL BIG MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Panthers -10) 

I'll take my chances here with Carolina covering as a double-digit home favorite against the Redskins. I know Washington pulled off a win last week against Detroit, but that was at home and against the Lions. Big thing to note from that game is the Haskins and Redskins offense did next to nothing in that game and I just don't think he's ready for the NFL. Panthers have been struggling of late, but are not going to throw in the towel just yet. I expect a max effort here at home and that should be more than enough to win here by at least two touchdowns. Give me the Panthers -10! 

50* NFL AFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colts -2.5) 

I just think there’s a ton of value here with Indianapolis laying less than a field goal at home. I think a big reason for the line is the fact that the Colts come in having lost 3 of 4 and the Titans have won 4 of 5.

What most will fail to overlook is that Tennessee’s recent hot streak has come in a very favorable spot in their schedule. All 4 wins during their recent run have come at home and only one of those was against a team with a winning record. As for the Colts recent woes. You can’t knock them for losing at Houston on just 3-days of rest and the other two were a 24-26 loss at Pittsburgh and a 12-16 loss to the Dolphins. Starting QB Jacoby Brissett left in the 2nd quarter with a knee injury against the Steelers and Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning field goal in the final minutes. Indy didn’t have Brissett for the loss to Miami and backup Brian Hoyer threw 3 picks in the defeat.

What a lot of people overlook with the Colts is just how good they are on the defensive side of the ball. Indy has really done a 180 on that the last couple of years. Colts are only giving up 19.7 ppg on the season and that drops to a mere 17.8 ppg on the road.

One thing they have been really good at of late is stopping the run. Since giving up 188 yards rushing to the Raiders in Week 4, they have allowed just 76.7 ypg. If you can take away Derek Henry and the Titans running game, there’s really not much that offense can do to beat you. They just don’t have the weapons on the outside.

Colts are also 40-19 ATS last 59 times they have come off a SU loss, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have been matched up against a division opponent. Give me Indianapolis -2.5!

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS MASSACRE (North Carolina -10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels laying it on their in-state rivals and winning here by at least 2 touchdowns. UNC is going to be extremely motivated, as they need to win here to make a bowl, which is a pretty big deal given it's year one under new head coach Mack Brown. As much as NC State would love to play spoiler, they just don't have the talent to do so. These two teams have played the same 4 teams. UNC has a +2 scoring average in those 4 games and the Wolfpack own a -27 scoring average. This is a complete mismatch. Give me the Tar Heels -10.5! 

50* TX A&M/LSU SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M +17) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Texas A&M as I just don't like this spot at all for LSU. The Tigers have already clinched a spot in next week's SEC title game against Georgia and a loss here does not hurt them in their hopes of making the playoffs. As long as they beat the Bulldogs they are in. I'm not saying they are going to lose this game, I just don't think they are going to be all that motivated to lay it on the Aggies. If they get up big, they are going to start looking ahead and I don't see Texas A&M quitting at any point. Aggies are arguably the best 7-4 team in the country, as their 4 losses have come against Clemson, Auburn, Alabama and Georgia. Their biggest setback in any of those games was a 19-point loss to Alabama and they were more competitive than that final score would indicate. Give me the Aggies +17! 

50* NCAAF IN-STATE RIVALRY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Oregon State +20)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Oregon State as a massive underdog. Usually I would look to fade a team like the Beavers off such a crushing loss like they suffered at Washington State last week, but not this time around. Oregon State is getting up to play Oregon no matter what the circumstances and they desperately need a win here to get bowl eligible.

While I’m 100% confident we get the best Oregon State has to offer, I got massive concerns here with Oregon showing up for this game. As tough as the Beavers loss had to be to swallow, it comes no where close to the heartache that the Ducks are dealing with from last week’s upset loss at Arizona State. That loss ended any hopes Oregon had of making the 4-team playoff.

With the playoffs out of the picture, there’s nothing for the Ducks to play for. They already got the Pac-12 North locked up and know they are going to be playing Utah in the Pac-12 title game with a chance to ruin the Utes hopes of making the playoff. This is such a bad spot for Oregon that I not only think they don’t cover, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they lost this game outright.

It reminds me a lot of a game I gave out a few years ago (2016) with Kentucky +27 at Louisville. The then Lamar Jackson led Cardinals were ranked No. 11 and were without a doubt the more talented team. However, they had just suffered their second loss of the season the week before at Houston, ending their hopes of making the playoffs. A 6-5 Kentucky team defeated their in-state rivals 41-38. Give me the Beavers +20!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (Michigan State -22.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Michigan State covering a big number at home against Maryland. I just don't think there's enough talent or fight left in this Terps team, which has been outscored 217-38 in their last 4 games. Michigan State snapped their losing streak with a 27-0 win over Rutgers last week and we can bank on a big effort in their home finale with them still needing one more win to get to a bowl game. Maryland has allowed 300+ rushing yards in 3 of their last 4, so I really don't have a lot of concern with the Sparty offense being able to move the ball. On the flip side, I wouldn't be shocked if the Terps didn't score a single point. Give me Michigan State -22.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Miami -8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hurricanes covering the 8.5 at Duke on Saturday. I think this is the perfect spot to jump on Miami after an embarrassing loss to FIU last week as a 21-point favorite. Prior to that setback the Hurricanes had won and covered 3 straight. As for Duke, the Blue Devils are really struggling to get anything going. Duke has lost 5 straight and have not covered the spread since September. Miami is 17-5 ATS last 22 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and Duke is 0-6 ATS last 6 conference home games. Give me the Hurricanes -8.5! 

50* WISC/MINN BIG TEN PLAY OF THE MONTH (Minnesota +3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Minnesota as a home dog against the Badgers. I was really impressed with how the Gophers came out last week in a massive letdown spot against Northwestern and I think there's no way they should be a home dog in this one. We saw just how crazy the atmosphere can be at TCF Bank Stadium when Minnesota knocked off Penn State a few weeks ago. It's going to be even more electric with the Gophers now 1-win away from playing in the Big Ten title game. As for Wisconsin, I just think they have flatlined a bit in the 2nd half. The defense that was so good early on has allowed 21+ in 5 straight games and I just think they are going to have a hard time slowing down the Gophers on the road. Give me Minnesota +3! 

40* OHIO ST/MICHIGAN EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Michigan +9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Wolverines covering as a near double-digit home dog against the Buckeyes. I really think Michigan has a decent shot at winning this game outright. We saw last week that Ohio State isn't invincible, as they only beat Penn State by 11 at home. As for the Wolverines, I think they have only got better with each passing week, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The underdog has covered each of the last 3 and 5 of the last 6 in this series. Give me the Wolverines +9.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Missouri -12.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Tigers cashing in a win here by at least 14 and I actually think they easily win by 20. This game to me feels like a lot like Nebraska at Maryland, where the Cornhuskers desperately needed a win and were laying a short number against an awful Terps team. Missouri is 5-6 and needs a win here to get to bowl eligibility. Arkansas has lost 5 straight by 30 or more an are now asked to lose by less than 14 in a game that means nothing to them. Give me the Tigers -12.5

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Iowa -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Iowa. I think with Nebraska coming off that blowout win over Maryland, the Hawks failing to cover last week against Illinois at home and the Cornhuskers needing this win to get to bowl eligibility has a lot of people talking themselves into backing Nebraska. I just think it's a bad matchup for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska's offense is built on their ground game and this Iowa defense is built to stop the run. Cornhuskers also aren't great at stopping the run. When the Hawks have success on the ground they are really tough to beat. Give me Iowa -5.5! 

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Va Tech -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hokies winning by at least a field goal at in-state rival Virginia.  This is for all the marbles, as the winner of this game will win the Coastal and get a shot at Clemson in the ACC title game. Not only do I think Virginia tech is the better team, but they have owned their in-state rivals, winning every single meeting between the two programs since the Hokies joined the ACC back in 2004. Virginia Tech has been one of the best kept secrets over the 2nd half. Most people wrote off this team after a 45-10 loss at home to Duke, but they have won 6 of 7 since and put together one of the best turnarounds on the defensive side of the ball that I can remember. Hokies have covered 6 straight and I just see no reason why you would jump off the money train at this point. Give me Virginia Tech -2.5! 

40* SAINTS/FALCONS PRIME-TIME ATS NO-BRAINER (Saints -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with New Orleans winning by at least a touchdown. Hard to imagine the Falcons defense having as much success as they did in the first meeting, making it hard to believe Atlanta can score enough here to keep this close, especially when they are likely to be without star wide out Julio Jones. 

I also don't trust the mental state of the Falcons. Prior to that upset against the Saints in the first meeting, the Falcons were coming out of their bye believing if they won that game they had a shot to turn their season around. Now there's next to no hope for this team. They are 6-games back of the Saints in the NFC South with 5 to play, so the division is out of the picture. They are also 5-games back of the Vikings with 5 to play for the final Wild Card and have 7 teams in front of them. I just don't know that this being a division home game is enough to get the juices flowing.

Lastly, the Saints are going to come in with a chip on their shoulder after what happened in that last meeting. They still got plenty of motivation to finish with one of the two best records in the NFC and with a win they can lock up the NFC South title. Give me the Saints -6.5!

50* BILLS/COWBOYS THANKSGIVING DAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bills. While I think people have made a big mistake betting against Buffalo in previous games simply because of their soft schedule (Bills were one of my favorite plays last week against Denver), I do think they are going to have a tough time here keeping it close against a good Dallas team on the road.

First and foremost, it’s extremely difficult playing on the road in these Thursday games, where you have just 3 days of rest, especially for the team that has to travel. Keep in mind that while Buffalo was at home last week, they will be playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks, so they have been on the go a lot of late.

At the same time, Dallas has a lot of familiarity playing on Thanksgiving Day and usually play well in this spot in front of their home fans. Last year the beat the Redskins 31-23.

One thing that I think really speaks volumes to Buffalo’s schedule and how easy it’s been, is the fact that their opponents on the season are averaging a mere 18.5 ppg and 304 ypg. It definitely makes you think twice about their defensive numbers, as they look elite giving up just 15.7 ppg and 289 ypg.

I also think it’s fair to say that Dallas and Philadelphia are two pretty evenly matched teams and Buffalo lost 31-13 at home to the Eagles back in Week 8. Philadelphia was able to impose their will on the ground in that game, rushing for 218 yards. When Dallas can get Zeke and that running game going, that offense is really tough to stop. Give me the Cowboys -6.5!

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ohio -27.5) 

There’s just no way I’m putting my hard earned money on the Zips. I don’t care that they are winless or that this will be their home finale (senior day). Ohio is hands down the better team and I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for them to win here by four touchdowns.

Don’t be fooled by Akron’s cover last week against the RedHawks. Miami (OH) had nothing to play for in that game, as they had already locked up the top spot in the MAC East and all they are focused on right now is being 100% ready to go for the MAC Championship Game next week. If there was a game the Zips were going to cover, that was it.

This would be a different story if Ohio was already bowl eligible and were just playing for pride, but that’s not the case. If the Bobcats didn’t care about getting to a bowl, they wouldn’t have showed up last week at Bowling Green. I see no reason not to expect a similar beatdown on the road this week.

Bobcats are going to be able to score at will. A big reason for that is they should be able to run at will. Ohio is averaging 213 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry and will be facing a Zips defense that is allowing 210 ypg on the ground. Give me the Bobcats -27.5.

50* PACKERS/49ERS SNF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers -3)

I'll gladly take my chances here with San Francisco getting right at home on Sunday Night Football against the Packers. I think after a couple of lackluster performances the 49ers are going to lay a beating on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I just don't think that Green Bay offensive line has any chance here of keeping that 49ers front from making life miserable for Rodgers. On the flip side of this, I think San Francisco's offense is poised to get back on track with the return of tight end George Kittle, who missed the last two. 49ers are also expected to have both wideouts Deebo Samuel and Emanuel Sanders after both were listed as questionable, they are now probable. Give me San Francisco -3! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Patriots -5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with New England winning by 6 or more at home against the Cowboys. I just think New England is the far superior team. Not only that, they just don't lose at home, especially at this juncture of the season. Patriots are a ridiculous 33-13 ATS at home with Tom Brady at quarterback. I think that offense will be able to move the ball here, but more than anything I think a Cowboys offense that is hurting on the offensive line is going to have a miserable time moving the football. GIve me the Patriots -5.5! 

40* NFL BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Bills -4) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bills laying a short number at home. I just think people are so quick to want to fade Buffalo because of the easy schedule they have played. I’m not about to sit here and say it hasn’t been easy or this team is as good as their 7-3 record, but this is just too good a price to pass up.

I also think we are seeing Denver get some love due to the fact that they nearly won outright as a double-digit dog last week at Minnesota and are a perfect 2-0 ATS with Brandon Allen at quarterback for the injured Joe Flacco.

I was on Denver last week in their near upset over the Vikings, but a lot of that was due to the fact that the Broncos were way undervalued at +10.5. They were also coming off their bye week and facing a Minnesota team that was primed for a letdown with their bye on deck and fresh off two huge prime time games against the Chiefs and Cowboys.

The biggest thing for me and jumping off the Broncos bandwagon this week is how they lost that game to the Vikings. I don’t care how big of a dog you are, losing a game you lead by 20-points at the half and by 16 going into the 4th quarter is one that is extremely difficult to bounce back. I think it’s that much harder when you have to go on the road against a hungry Bills team that desperately needs to win this game with their next 4 games against the Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers and Patriots. Not to mention that loss to the Vikings was one the Broncos had to have to have any shot at getting back in the AFC playoff race.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Denver came out and played their worst game of the season on Sunday. Give me the Bills -4!

40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Lions -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Detroit laying a short number at the Redskins. I just think this is a good price on the Lions. I know they have lost 3 straight and failed to cover 5 in a row, but they have played well here of late. Not have Stafford sucks, but I like what I've seen from Driskel against a couple of decent defenses in the Bears and Cowboys. He should have a big game here against a Redskins defense that was just shredded by Sam Darnold last week. The other big thing is the fact that Washington is sending out Haskins at QB and he's just not NFL ready and a big liability on the field. Detroit's defense should have a great game and could even get in on the scoring action. Give me the Lions -3.5! 

50* NFL NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -3.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta laying a short number at home against the Bucs. These two teams have identical 3-7 records, but it doesn't feel like it. Tampa Bay is on a downward spiral, while the Falcons have seemed to figure things out. Any concern that Atlanta's 26-9 win at New Orleans was a fluke were put to rest in a 29-3 win at Carolina last week. What was once one of the worst defenses in the league is playing like one of the best. I'll take my chances that strong defensive play carries over. With the way Tampa struggles to stop the pass and the weapons Atlanta has on the outside, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Falcons -3.5! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS KNOCKOUT (Wake Forest -7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Demon Deacons winning by more than a touchdown at home. I just think we are getting a great price here with Wake Forest due to the fact that they come in off a couple of blowout losses at Virginia Tech and Clemson. No explanation needed for the blowout loss to the Tigers, but that Virginia Tech team is playing unbelievable football right now. This is the ideal bounce back spot. Not only are we going to get a big effort coming off of those losses, but this is also their final home game and senior day. Duke is playing as poorly as any Power 5 team out there and just got routed at home by a bad Syracuse team 49-6. Give me the Demon Deacons -7! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Temple +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Bearcats. I just don't agree with this number at all. I feel like we are seeing Cincinnati getting way too much respect because they come in at 9-1. They have not put away teams like you would want to see for a team laying double-digits, especially given how well Temple has been playing. The Owls have had the Bearcats number of late with 4 straight wins in the series and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if they won this game outright. Temple is also a team that always seems to play their best this time of the year. They are 12-3 ATS last 15 in the month of number. They have also covered 39 of their last 55 conference games, while the Bearcats are 6-16 ATS last 22 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Owls +10.5! 

50* NCAAF FAVORITE ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH (Louisville -9) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinals winning by double-digits at home against the Orange. I've really liked what I've seen out of Louisville under first year head coach Scott Satterfield. He doesn't get near enough credit for what he's done in year one. Cardinals are sitting at 6-4 with two of their losses coming against Notre Dame and Clemson and the other two on the road against FSU and Miami. 

I don't see them having any problem winning here by 10+ on senior day at home. Don't be fooled by Syracuse's 49-6 win over Duke last week as a 10.5-point dog. Few teams are playing worse than the Blue Devils right now, especially at the Power 5 level. Prior to that the Orange had lost 4 straight and that's their only win this season against a Power 5 opponent. There defense will be exposed and I just don't see the offense doing enough to keep this close. Give me the Cardinals -9! 

50* NCAAF SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (UCLA +14) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Bruins getting two touchdowns against USC. UCLA was my only loser on the college card last Saturday, but I’m not going to let that keep me from jumping back on the Bruins this week. The big thing for me is that UCLA was not nearly as bad as the 49-3 final score would lead you to believe against Utah. The Bruins had a number of opportunities to make a game of it, but just couldn’t get out of their own way. UCLA turned it over 5 times and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson was sacked 5 times.  A bunch of those turnovers and sacks came in Utah territory, which took points off the board. 

Give credit to the Utah defense, which has one of the best defensive lines in the country. They hands down won that game for the Utes. The key here is USC doesn’t have near the talent in their front seven. Look for the Bruins to get back on track in the running game against the Trojans. Prior to being held to a mere 50 rushing yards against Utah, UCLA had put together 5 straight games with at least 200 yards on the ground. Each of the last 4 resulting in at least 31 points.  

USC is giving up 167 rushing yards/game and 4.6 yards/carry and had a game earlier this season where they let Notre Dame rush for 308 yards. I think with UCLA’s offense getting back on track, they not only have a great shot at covering the 14-points spread, but potentially winning this game outright.  

Note that while the Trojans have won their last two games, they are just 2-10 ATS the last 3 seasons when coming in off 2 or more consecutive wins and are losing in this spot by an average of 4.8 ppg. Keep in mind a bad UCLA team that won just 3-games last year beat USC 34-27 at home. With that win Bruins head coach Chip Kelly improved to 4-1 against the Trojans and his offense just always seems to give the Trojans problems.  Give me UCLA +14!  

40* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE WEEK (Texas A&M +13.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M covering the big double-digit spread on the road against Georgia. I think the Bulldogs are way overvalued here. Sure they have bounced back from that upset loss to South Carolina with 4 straight wins, but the offense has continued to struggle. Bulldogs have gone 5 straight games scoring 27 or fewer. I don't see that changing against a solid Aggies defense. I know the Georgia defense has been great, but a lot of their success has come against run-first teams. Texas A&M can not only run the ball (200+ yards in 3 straight games), but they have a legit quarterback in Kellen Mond. You could argue that Texas A&M is the 4th best team in the SEC, as their 3 losses this season are to Clemson, Alabama and Auburn. I don't that they can pull off the upset, but I'm confident they make a game of it. Give me the Aggies +13.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOODBATH (Virginia Tech -3.5)

I'll take my chances here with Virginia Tech laying the short number at home against Pitt. One of my biggest bets from last weekend was the Hokies and they delivered in a big way with a 45-0 thrashing of Georgia Tech on the road. They are now 5-1 in their last 6 with their only loss coming by 1-point against Notre Dame where the Irish needed a late score to secure a win. The Hokies have covered all 5 games during this stretch with a line and are simply playing as well as any team in the country right now. I just think people are slow to jump on board and they just continue to show value. Pitt has won 6 of their last 7, but 4 of those wins were against the likes of Duke, Delaware, Syracuse and Georgia Tech. They needed OT last week to beat UNC at home and I just think they are going to struggle to keep this close on the road. Give me the Hokies -3.5! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SLAUGHTER (E Carolina -14.5) 

I'll take my chances here with East Carolina winning by more than two touchdowns on the road against UConn. You aren't going to find many 3-7 teams laying 14.5 on the road, but that just speaks volumes to how bad this Huskies team is. Connecticut is 2-8 with one of those being a mere 24-21 win against Wagner at home and the other a win over a UMass team who is one of the worst teams in college football in recent years. It's also not like this team is losing a lot of close games, the majority are by a wide margin. ECU has covered 5 of their last 6, so don't be fooled by their 5-game losing streak that they aren't playing well. Those last 5 were against much better teams and in their last two they have only lost by 3 to Cincinnati and by 8 at SMU. They got one of the better QB's noone knows about and should put up 40+ in this one. Give me the Pirates -14.5! 

40* NFL COLTS/TEXANS TNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texans -3.5) 

I just think this is a great price to get the Texans coming off their worst performance of the season. I was actually shocked with how much respect Houston was getting on the road against a Ravens team that is playing as well anyone right now.

It’s just a lot harder than people think to slow down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. As is the case for a lot of teams that go against Baltimore, the Texans just couldn’t stop the Ravens running game. Baltimore piled on 263 yards on the ground.

The good news is that prior to giving up all those yards on the ground to the Ravens, Houston had gone 7 straight games where they held their opponent under 95 yards rushing. In the previous matchup with the Colts, they held Indy to just 62 yards on 26 attempts. I know the Colts got the win despite the low rushing numbers, but I don’t think it will be as easy for them to score without being able to run the ball on the road.

Another thing to keep in mind with that previous result against the Colts, is that Indianapolis had a big advantage in that game coming off their bye week. Now it’s the Texans who get the big scheduling advantage playing at home on just 3 days of rest.

You also have to love how Houston has responded after a bad game like they had against the Ravens. The Texans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a game where they gave up more than 150 rushing yards. They are also 16-7-1 ATS last 24 after scoring fewer than 15 points. Houston is also 7-1-1 ATS last 9 off a game where they failed to cover and 27-12 ATS last 39 when revenging a loss where they gave up 28 or more points. Give me the Texans -3.5!

40* NC STATE/GA TECH THURS NIGHT ATS MASSACRE (Ga Tech -1) 

I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Wolfpack. I think the public perception here is that Georgia Tech has no business being favored in this one, as they are just playing for pride and NC State is sitting at 4-6 and needing to win their final two to make a bowl. 

I just don't buy in as much to team that need to win out to make a bowl. Sure there's motivation there, but at the same time, there's a reason they are in this spot. I know Georgia Tech didn't play well last week in their blowout loss to Va Tech, but this team had shown some improvements over the season. I also think pride is more than enough for this team, as they are trying to build some positive momentum to close out their first year under head coach Geoff Collins. It also helps playing at home in a prime time game. Give me the Yellow Jackets -1! 

40* NCAAF MAC ATTACK ATS MASSACRE (Eastern Michigan +5) 

I'll take my chances here with Eastern Michigan covering the 5-point spread at Northern Illinois.  I just think we are going to get a really big effort here from the Eagles in this one, especially with how close they have been to putting an end to this losing streak against Northern Illinois (lost 11 straight, last 3 decided by 7 or less).

It should also be a lot easier for Eastern Michigan bouncing back from a cupcake win over Akron than it will for Northern Illinois off that big game against Toledo.

The Eagles offense should put up a big number in this one. While they got the win over Toledo, the Huskies gave up 508 yards to the Rockets. That’s after they allowed over 600 yards the previous time out against Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan’s offense has scored 34 or more in 3 of their last 4 and had 498 yards last week against the Zips.

Eagles are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games and 23-10 ATS last 33 after a game where they had 450 or more yards of total offense. Give me Eastern Michigan +5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -4) 

I'll take my chances here with Kansas City covering the spread over the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Mexico City. I know the Chiefs are coming off an ugly loss at Tennessee where they gifted the Titans the win. I still think this KC team is a legit Super Bowl contender. Patrick Mahomes was sensational in his first game back from a dislocated knee cap, throwing for over 400 yards with 3 scores. KC's defense struggled with containing Derek Henry, but I still like what I've seen from them on that side. They are much improved over a year ago and this Chargers offense hasn't been anything special. Give me the Chiefs -4! 

50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR(Patriots -4) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Patriots on Sunday. For me it's automatic to take New England coming off a loss and an absolute no-brainer if they are coming off a bye. I expect a big bounce back effort from the Patriots defense. The big reason they struggled with Baltimore in their last game is there's just no defending an elite mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson. Also, if coming off a loss and a bye wasn't enough to get you to take the Patriots, I got to believe NE wants some revenge against the Eagles after losing to them in the SB a couple years back, as this is the first meetings since that game. Pats are 16-5 ATS last 21 off a loss by 14 or more and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road after a bye week. Give me New England -4! 

40* NFL VEGAS UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK (Cardinals +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Arizona as a double-digit dog against the Cardinals. Whenever you have a big public team like the 49ers coming off a loss after being so good for so long, the public just assumes they are going to bounce back. I just don't see it. The injuries are really starting to pile up for SF. Jimmy G will once again be without his best weapon in tight end George Kittle and there's a good chance he won't have his new toy in Emmanuel Sanders. 49ers also lost a couple of key rotation guys up front on their d-line. Arizona is 6-3 ATS with rookie QB Kyler Murray and have covered 5 of their last 6 overall, including a mere 3-point loss at home to these 49ers a few weeks ago. Give me the Cardinals +10.5! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE  (Broncos +10.5) 

I see a lot of value here with the Broncos as a double-digit dog against the Vikings. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the Vikings off their win at Dallas in prime time on Sunday Night Football. Not only that, but Denver’s not a team the public wants a lot to do with right now, so the books are able to inflate the number knowing the public will be on Minnesota no matter what the number is.

I’m not going to sit here and say Denver is a great team, but I do think they are better than their 3-6 record. The Broncos could easily have a winning record, as they got 4 losses by 8 or less, including 3 defeats by a mere 2-points.

In Denver’s last game they gave Brandon Allen his first NFL start in place of the injured Joe Flacco. While they might have been forced into making the switch because of Flacco’s injury, it felt like a move needed to be made. Flacco was playing really bad before getting hurt and it often looked like he didn’t even want to be out there. I think his negative attitude was rubbing off on the entire team and things just weren’t going to get better with him on the field.

I get Allen didn’t light the world on fire in his first start, but he did guide the team to a win over Cleveland and played pretty well in process. More than anything Allen seemed to give a new sense of life to this Denver team and I think it’s going to carry over to this game.

I also like the fact that the Broncos are coming into this game off of their bye. Not only is it big in terms of getting some much-needed rest and getting guys healthy, it also gives the staff some time to work in a little more of the offense with Allen.

The other big thing here is the Denver defense has been playing extremely well all season long. Not a big surprise given the defensive prowess of head coach Vic Fango. In the Broncos last 5 games they are giving up just 74.2 rushing/yards game. They also have the league’s 4th ranked pass defense.

I feel like the best way to slow down this Vikings offense is to take away Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota ground attack. Note that both of the Vikings losses this season have come in games where they failed to rush for 100 yards. I’m not saying Denver will pull off the upset, but I definitely like their chances of keeping it within the number. Give me the Broncos +10.5!

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cowboys winning by at least a touchdown at Detroit on Sunday. Lions will once again be without Matthew Stafford and will have to start Jeff Driskel. The Lions managed just 13 points against the Bears last week and 7 of those came on a late garbage TD. If Chicago's offense wasn't so awful, they would have won by 20+ and I could see Dallas laying it on them. 

Not a good matchup at all for the Lions. Detroit has no running game and the passing game is now limited with Driskel and will be facing a Cowboys defense that ranks in the top half of the league against the pass. It's not good on the other side. No one has been able to contain Zeke and the Cowboys ground game and the Lions are 28th vs the pass, so it's going to be a real balanced attack for Dak and the Cowboys. Give me Dallas -6.5! 

50* NFL AFC SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Ravens -4) 

I don't know that there's a team playing better than the Ravens right now and I while the Texans are coming off of their bye, I don't see Houston being able to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and that Baltimore offense. Keep in mind there's a little extra incentive for Jackson, who certainly hasn't forgot about that heartbreaking loss he suffered in college to Deshaun Watson and Clemson. He will be out to get his revenge on Sunday. Give me Baltimore -4! 

40* NCAAF  PRIME TIME PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA +21.5) 

I'll take my chances here with UCLA covering as a massive 21.5-point dog against the Utes. The Bruins might be just 4-5 overall, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Just like they did a year ago, they have greatly improved as the season has worn along. 

Utes are way overvalued right now after winning and covering in each of their last 5 games. The books may have been slow to adjust the number, but they definitely have inflated it here. Just a few weeks ago they were a 21-point favorite at home against Cal and the week before only a 16-point favorite at home against Arizona State. I would take UCLA against both of those teams right now. 

UCLA head coach Chip Kelly has gone 16-5 ATS as a head coach when facing a top tier team that's won more than 75% of their games. Give me the Bruins +21.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Appalachian State -16.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Appalachian State covering the 16.5-point spread at home against Georgia State. The Mountaineers should have no problem putting up a big number here. The Panthers defense is one of the worst in the country. They are giving up 36.0 ppg and 464 yards/game. 

I just don't see them being able to keep pace offensively with starting quarterback Dan Ellington sidelined with a knee injury. Ellington is what makes the Panthers offense go. He's competed 66% of his attempts with an 18-4 TD-INT ratio, while rushing for 603 yards and 5 scores.

Home underdogs who are allowing 35+ ppg and coming off 2 straight games with 60 or more combined points scored are a mere 30-75 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Mountaineers -16.5! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME BOOKIE CRUSHER (Texas A&M -11) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M laying it on the Gamecocks and covering the 11-point spread at home. I just think we got a case here of the Aggies being better than what they are getting credit for and South Carolina still getting a little too much love for their earlier upset win against Georgia. 

The thing is the Gamecocks have just been decimated by injuries and simply don't have the talent to keep this close against Texas A&M. Aggies are 6-3 with their 3 losses coming against Clemson, Auburn and Alabama. We saw them priced similarly in their last home game against Mississippi State and they easily covered as an 11.5-point favorite.

Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-6 (82%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me Texas A&M -11! 

50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Va Tech -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hokies winning by at least a touchdown on the road against the Yellow Jackets. I was dead wrong playing against Virginia Tech last week, but I'm getting some of that money back and some with them this week. The Hokies are so much better right now than they were to start the season it's not funny. 

Georgia Tech just covered on the road against Virginia, but they also lost by 10 at home the previous week to a pretty average Pitt team. More than anything, I just think this is a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets. While they aren't as run heavy as their triple-option days, they still don't offer much in the passing game. That's a problem against this Hokies defense, which is giving up just 86 yards/game on the ground in their last 5. 

Georgia Tech is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS at home this season. Hokies are 29-12 ATS last 41 as a road favorite of 7 or less and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when coming off an upset win over a conference opponent. Give me Virginia Tech -5.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Indiana +15) 

I'll take my chances here with the Nittany Lions catching more than two touchdowns at Penn State on Saturday. I feel the public perception is that Penn State is just going to bounce back from their loss at Minnesota, which was their first of the season. It's just not as easy bouncing back from your first loss this late in the season and I'm also not convinced Penn State is as good as people think. They could have easily lost at Iowa a few weeks back and at home to Michigan. 

Add in the biggest game of the season on deck next week against Ohio State and I think it's asking a lot for the Nittany Lions to win here in blowout fashion. Indiana comes in having won 4 straight and while it's been against soft competition, this team shows up ready to give it their all on a weekly basis. They are going to have even more fire coming off their bye. Give me Indiana +15! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Texas Tech +3) 

I really like the value with the Red Raiders in this one. Texas Tech will be coming into this game with a ton of confidence after going on the road and laying it on the Mountaineers 38-17 as a slim 2.5-point favorite. I not only think they cover the 3-point spread at home, but I think there’s a decent chance they win this one going away.

Not only do I think this is an ideal spot to jump on Texas Tech, but I think it’s an even better spot to fade TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching 29-23 triple-overtime loss at home to undefeated and No. 12 ranked Baylor last week. TCU led the entire way only to see Baylor tie the game in the final seconds on a 51-yard field goal and then had to watch their defense give up 3 touchdowns in OT after they had held the Bears to 3 field goals in regulation.

Simply coming off that loss would have been a challenge. Add in the fact that TCU has a massive game on deck against No. 10 Oklahoma, who every team in the Big 12 has circled on the schedule and I think it will be near impossible for the Horned Frogs to play in Lubbock this Saturday.

Texas Tech quarterback Jett Duffey torched West Virginia’s secondary for 354 yards last week and the Red Raiders as a team come in completing 66% of their pass attempts for an average 309 yards/game. Texas Tech as a whole averages 32.2 ppg. Those stats are important to note given the matchup, as TCU is 2-9 ATS the last 2 seasons when facing an offense that completes 62% or more of their pass attempts and the same 2-9 ATS when facing a team that averages 31 or more points/game.

Horned Frogs have also been a good fade off a loss, as they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a defeat. They are also 2-6 ATS last 8 on the road. Give me Texas Tech +3!

50* NCAAF BOUNCE BACK ATS GAME OF THE MONTH(Alabama -17.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Alabama winning by 20+ on the road against Mississippi State. Much like the Patriots in the NFL, you take the Crimson Tide when they are coming off a loss. With or without Tua, I look for Alabama to lay it on the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State has shown nothing to make you think they can be competitive enough to keep this close. They lost by 19 at Texas A&M, by 23 at home to LSU and by 33 at Auburn. THey also lost by double-digits to Tennessee, which really tells you all you need to know. 

Alabama 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games when listed as a favorite of 14.5 to 21 points and have covered 4 of their last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Give me the Crimson Tide -17.5! 

40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (San Diego State PK) 

I'll take my chances here with San Diego State at a pick'em on their home turf against the Bulldogs. I'm not sure why this Fresno State team is getting so much love right now. The Bulldogs are atrocious defensively and really have no choice but to try to outscore teams. Fresno has allowed 37+ in each of their last 3. They can't stop the run and that's the one thing you need to be able to do to slow down the Aztecs. San Diego State's defense is also top notch, allowing just 14.4 ppg and really matchup well with what the Bulldogs do well offensively. Give me the Aztecs PK! 

40* NCAAF UNC/PITT ATS KNOCKOUT (N Carolina +4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with North Carolina getting more than a field goal at Pitt. I just think this line is a bit of a reflection of these two teams records, as Pitt is 6-3 and UNC is 4-5. However, the Panthers have played the much easier schedule (there 3 conference wins are against Duke, Syracuse and GA Tech) and all 5 of UNC's losses have come by 8 or less, including a mere 1-point loss to Clemson. Mack Brown always seems to get his teams to play well off a bye and I expect North Carolina to win this outright. 

Home favorites (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are just 7-30, 19% ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Tar Heels +4.5! 

50* SEAHAWKS/49ERS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the 49ers winning by at least a touchdown at home against the Seahawks. I just think it's going to be really hard for Seattle to make a game out of this. Seahawks rely so much on Russell Wilson and their passing game and will be going up against an elite 49ers pass defense that is giving up just 139 ypg and 4.9 yards/attempt. It's not just the defense. San Francisco has a better offense than they get credit for and are averaging 35.3 ppg at home. 49ers will be out to make a statement on Monday Night Football. Give me SF -6! 

50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams -3.5) 

I give a lot of props to Pittsburgh and how they have continued to play hard, but I just think they are getting a little too much love here. The thing you have to keep in mind is that 3 of their 4 wins have come at home against the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts. Not to mention Indy lost their starting QB early in that game.

I just don’t think their offense is going to be able to keep up. Pittsburgh has struggled to effectively run the football and Rudolph hasn’t been that impressive. If they can’t run the ball, that’s a problem, because they won’t be able to play keepaway from the Rams offense. Nothing supports this more than the fact that the LA is a perfect 7-0 ATS under Sean McVay against teams who are averaging 90 or less rushing yards game.

The Rams just aren’t covering in this spot, they are destroying teams. Their average margin of victory is by 19.7 ppg (35.1 to 15.4).

Another thing is that you almost just have to back road favorites blindly when coming off a bye. Teams laying points on the road with 2 or more weeks of rest are 100-57 (64%) ATS dating back to 1983. Steelers are also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and Rams are 6-0 ATS last 6 on the road. Give me Los Angeles -3.5!

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Titans. With Mahomes set to return this week for KC, I just don't see Tennessee being able to keep pace offensively against what I believe is hands down the best offense in the league with Mahomes under center. 

Kansas City isn't just getting Mahomes back, they are as healthy as they have been since Week 1. I just don't think we have seen anything close to the best football for this team and with the way the defense is improving each and every week, they would be my pick to win it all right now. Give me the Chiefs -6! 

40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Browns -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Bills. Most have thrown in the towel on the Browns this season and it's hard to blame them, given they are just 2-6 overall and come in having lost 4 and failed to cover in straight. 

I expect a big effort here from Cleveland in this one and I think Buffalo is a team they can handle, especially at home. Bills are 6-2, but haven't beat anybody. Buffalo's 6 wins are against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins and Redskins. Tennessee is the only one of those teams with more than 2 wins. 

Speaking of schedules, the Browns have played one of the toughest slates in the league. They have played 5 of their first 8 on the road with 3 of those against the Ravens, 49ers and Patriots. They also have had two home games against top tier teams in the Rams and Seahawks. Give me Cleveland -2.5! 

50* LIONS/BEARS NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bears -2.5) 

The public perception couldn’t be much worse with Chicago right now and I think it’s created unbelievable value with the Bears laying less than a field goal at home. There’s no denying that Trubisky is not playing well, but I don’t think he can play any worse than he has. If anything, he’s due for a breakout performance.

One thing that I think gets overlooked with the Bears and most notably Trubisky’s poor start to the season, is the fact that Chicago has played a bunch of really good defensive teams. The only bad defense he’s faced in 2019 is the Redskins and he threw for 231 yards and 3 scores. Detroit’s defense has been holding them back all season and their secondary is 30th in the league, giving up 288.4 ypg.

Another thing that has quietly gone under the radar a bit in the Bears offensive struggles, is rookie running back David Montgomery is starting to get going. While he had just 40 yards against the Eagles, he scored twice and had a lot of nice runs in the 2nd half. The week before he had 135 yards against the Chargers. Lions run defense has allowed 165 or more yards in 3 of their last 4.

I think we see the Chicago offense come to life, while the Bears defense makes life difficult on Matt Stafford and the Lions offense. Detroit’s offense just hasn’t been the same since losing Kerryon Johnson to a season-ending injury. Stafford has played 30 games in his career against strong defensive teams that allow 15 to 21 ppg and has won just 6 times. Bears are 18-7 ATS last 25 at home off 3 straight losses and 22-8 ATS last 30 at home after two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. Give me Chicago -2.5!

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS NO-BRAINER (Georgia -16) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs winning by 3 scores over Missouri. All the talk this week in SEC country is centered around the big showdown between Alabama and LSU. I just think Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs are going to be out to send a message in prime time at home against the Tigers. Georgia won by 14 last year at Missouri and the last time they hosted the Tigers they won by 25. Missouri comes in off a 21-14 loss at Vanderbilt and a 29-7 loss at Kentucky. I just don't see them flipping the switch on the road against a hungry and motivated Georgia team. Give me the Bulldogs -16! 

50* ALABAMA/LSU SEC GAME OF THE YEAR (Alabama -5.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a touchdown against LSU at home. All signs point to Tua playing and I want to point out I think they could beat the Tigers by a TD without him. With him, I don't think it's going to be close, especially with everyone jumping on the LSU bandwagon for this one. Joe Burrow has been special for the Tigers, but Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide have had two weeks to prepare for him and we just saw LSU score just 20 at home against Auburn. I think Burrow struggles and more than anything, I think the Tigers defense won't be able to stop the Alabama offense. Give me the Crimson Tide -5.5!