Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -5) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-22-18 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +3.5 | 28-17 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS MASSACRE (Iowa +3.5) I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes as a home dog. Kinnick Stadium is one of the most difficult places to play in college football and there’s something special about this place at night. Two years ago the Hawkeyes came out of nowhere to stun No. 2 ranked Michigan 14-13 as a 21-point underdog in a home night game. Last year they nearly upset No. 4 Penn State, losing 21-19 with the Nittany Lions scoring a touchdown on the final play of the game. I also think after watching BYU go into Madison and beat the Badgers, the talent gap between these two teams might not be as big as originally thought. BYU’s defense more than held their own against that Wisconsin offense and the Cougars rushed for 191 yards, while averaging 6.8 yards/carry. BYU is definitely improved this year, but I would argue Iowa is every bit as good as the Cougars and likely a little stronger. There’s going to be plenty of people calling out Iowa and their 3-0 start because of what looks like a soft schedule, but Northern Illinois is a team that was picked to win the MAC by a lot of people and nearly upset Utah the very next week. Iowa State on the other hand only lost by 10 at home to Oklahoma and they were without their starting quarterback. Even Northern Iowa is no pushover, as they came into the year ranked in the Top 15 of FCS programs. I think that with the electric atmosphere and Wisconsin being a team that wants to run to set up the pass, this Hawkeyes defense can really make things difficult on this Badgers offense. Iowa comes into this game ranked 2nd in the country, allowing just 42 yards/game rushing and out of the 24 points they have allowed, 21 have come in garbage time in the 4th quarter. They held the same ISU offense that put up nearly 450 yards on the Sooners to just 188 total yards and 11 first downs. The Iowa offense hasn’t been all that impressive, but a lot of that had to do with Stanley not playing up to his potential in the first two games. He looked like a different guy against UNI. I know lighting up a FCS defense is nothing to get overly excited about, but I think it was huge for his confidence going into this game. If he shows up and can keep Wisconsin from just loading the box, Iowa could runaway with this thing. Keep in mind BYU had just 120 passing yards in their win over the Badgers last week, so it’s not like he has to play well for the Hawkeyes to win this game. Give me Iowa +3.5. |
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09-22-18 | Stanford v. Oregon +3 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Oregon +3) I'll gladly take my chances here with Oregon getting points at home against Stanford. I think the books had this one listed right when they opened it, as I just don’t think the Cardinal should be favored on the road. This Oregon team is no joke and I just think people have forgot about how big an advantage is to play at Autzen Stadium in a prime time night game like this. I just don’t know how you trust this Stanford team on the road given the struggles they have had offensively. I know Bryce Love didn’t play last week, but he wasn’t anything special in the first two games. Thru 3 games the Cardinal have the 112th ranked rushing attack (115.3 ypg) are just 63rd in passing (243 ypg). That 14-3 win over USC doesn’t look nearly as good after the Trojans were embarrassed 37-14 at Texas this past weekend. I know the defense has been great, but they played one of the most traditional offenses in the country in San Diego State, a USC team that lost a ton and was starting a true freshman at quarterback and a FCS foe in UC Davis. Note that Texas, who gave up 34 points and over 400 yards to Maryland in their opener, held USC to fewer yards (317) than Stanford did (332). Simply put, this Oregon offense is the best unit that Stanford will have faced to this point in the season. The Ducks come in averaging 51 ppg (8th) and are averaging 503 ypg (24th). They have playmakers at both running back and wide receiver, plus a season veteran at quarterback in junior Justin Herbert, who already has thrown for 12 touchdowns. I know the schedule has been soft, but the Oregon defense is better than people think, especially up front. The Ducks are sitting 9th in the country, allowing just 77 ypg and have allowed just 2.0 yards/carry. The defense should feed off what will be an electric crowd and I look for his entire Oregon team to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how bad they have been the last two years of this series. Give me Oregon +3! |
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09-22-18 | TCU -3 v. Texas | 16-31 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (TCU -3) I'll take my chances here with TCU as a short road favorite against the Longhorns. I just don’t trust this Texas team. The win over USC looks great on paper, but that’s not a great Trojans team. I also still can’t get forget about that loss to Maryland in the opener. Last year you could make the excuse that Texas was overlooking the Terps, but not this year. Not to mention that loss to Maryland looks even worse after the Terps were just annihilated at home by Temple 35-14. Note the Owls came into that came 0-2 with losses at home to Villanova and Buffalo. On top of that, the Tulsa team they struggled to beat two weeks ago lost at home to Arkansas State this past Saturday. Even though it came in a loss, TCU proved that they are for real. They lost by just 12-points, despite the Buckeyes scoring two defensive touchdowns. The yardage battle was almost identical, as Ohio State had 526 and the Horned Frogs had 511. Note that if you take away the two defensive scores, TCU held the Ohio State offense to just 26 points. TCU’s defense is the best in the Big 12 and when you can get consistent stops on that side of the ball, you can go on the road and take down quality opponents. That defense is a big reason why the Horned Frogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. You also can’t ignore the history of this series with the Horned Frogs winning 4 straight by at least 17 points. I know Texas head coach, Tom Herman, has been there for just one of them, but last year’s Longhorns team only managed 263 total yards against the TCU defense. Adding to this, the Horned Frogs have covered 4 of their last 5 trips to Austin. It’s also worth noting that Texas has not been a good team to back when coming off a blowout win. The Longhorns are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win by more than 20 points. Give me TCU -3! |
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09-22-18 | Arizona v. Oregon State +7 | 35-14 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Oregon State +7) I'll take my chances here with the Beavers getting a touchdown at home against Arizona. Oregon State is light years better than the team that finished 1-11 last year. They put up 31 points on a great Ohio State defense in Week 1, rolled Southern Utah at home and nearly upset Nevada on the road. A lot of people haven't heard of Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith, but he's doing some big things in year one, mainly on the offensive side of the ball. The Beavers only averaged 20.7 ppg and 334 ypg last year. Smith, who was the OC at Washington the last 5 years, has them at 38.0 ppg and 527 ypg early on in 2018. As for Arizona, this team was way over-hyped coming into the season and it's shown. They lost at home to BYU in their opener and were annihilated on the road by Houston. The lone win came against Southern Utah and it was a very similar outcome to when Oregon State played Southern Utah. I just think these two teams are a lot more evenly matched than a lot of people realize. The biggest thing with the Beavers and this line, is they have been so bad for so long that they are going to keep showing value even though they are clearly better. Give me Oregon State +7! |
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09-22-18 | South Carolina -2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (S. Carolina -2.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Gamecocks laying less than a field goal on the road against the Commodores. South Carolina has to be absolutely chomping at the bit to take the field. They have yet to play a game after that ugly Week 2 loss at home to Georgia, as last weeks game against Marshall was canceled due to the hurricane that hit the area. Not to take anything away from the Commodores, who are better than expected, but this is a horrible spot for them off that heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame. The offense that lit it up against Middle Tennessee and Nevada managed just 17 points against the Fighting Irish. That's not going to cut it against this South Carolina team, which I think is a lot better than they get credit for. It's also worth noting this series has been very lopsided. The Commodores have lost 9 straight by an average of 9 ppg. I'm not saying it won't be close, but I just think there's way too much value with South Carolina essentially just needing to win the game outright to get the cover. Give me the Gamecocks -2.5! |
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09-22-18 | Georgia v. Missouri +15 | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Missouri +15) I'll take my chances here with Missouri as more than a two touchdown dog at home to the Bulldogs. Georgia has looked the part of a playoff team to this point an already have that impressive road win over South Carolina. With that said, I think this Missouri team is a lot better than people think, but don't get the respect because of how they struggled against the top teams last year. The Tigers just went on the road and beat a good Purdue team that desperately didn't want to start 0-3 and that was no easy spot given this massive game was on deck. Anytime you have a quarterback that is as talented as Missouri's Drew Lock, you don't just have a good shot at keeping games close, but it's not out of the question they could pull off the upset. A big thing here is I don't think Georgia has seen an offense as explosive as Missouri. They are giving up just 8 ppg, but that's against teams averaging just 19.3 ppg and 318 ypg. The Tigers are sitting at 43.7 ppg and 589 ypg. The Bulldogs better bring their "A" game or they might be leaving Columbia with their first loss of 2018. Either way I think the Tigers keep it closer than expected. Give me Missouri +15! |
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09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic +13.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 36-56 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (FAU +13.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with FAU as a double-digit dog against UCF. I know the Knights have looked great early on and will have a massive edge in rest with them having not played since Sept. 8th and FAU on just 5 days of rest. However, I just think this is too many points. I think there’s a couple reasons we are seeing FAU undervalued in this matchup. The first being that ugly 63-14 Week 1 loss at Oklahoma, where they went off as a mere 21-point dog. The other being the fact that they haven’t covered a single contest. Clearly this team was getting too much respect against the Sooners, but keep in mind they lost 42-19 and 31-14 in their first two games last year against Navy and Wisconsin. I just have a lot of trust in Lane Kiffin and the Owls offense to score enough here to keep this game competitive. After struggling to get anything going against Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic has amassed over 500 total yards in each of their last two games against Air Force and Bethune-Cookman. What I like is how they took advantage of what the defense gave them. They had just 54 rushing yards against the Falcons, but Chris Robinson threw for 471 yards. Against Bethune-Cookman they rushed for 376 yards, while only throwing for 183. UCF’s defense looks great through the first two games, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have played UConn and South Carolina St. Despite playing some bad offenses the run defense has given up 220 yards to UConn and 177 last time out to South Carolina State. As for UCF’s offense, they are going to score some points behind talented junior quarterback McKenzie Milton, but once again the big numbers through the first two games are more a result of who they played. I think FAU can get some stops and it wouldn’t shock me of the Owls pulled off the upset. Give me Florida Atlantic +13.5! |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa +7 v. Temple | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF THURSDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Tulsa +7) I'll gladly take my chances here with Tulsa as a touchdown underdog against the Owls. Not only do I think the Golden Hurricane will keep it close enough to cover, but I believe they can win this game outright. I know Tulsa is coming off a home loss to Arkansas State, but this is a much better team than people realize. The Golden Hurricane are just 2 years removed from a 10-win season and are loaded this year with 15 starters back. Tulsa averaged just 29.3 ppg last year, but had put up 42.5 ppg in 2016 and 37.2 ppg in 2015. With 8 starters back and a talented sophomore quarterback in Luke Skipper leading the charge, I look for this Golden Hurricane offense to get back to averaging close to 40 ppg this year. Temple's defense couldn't have looked much better against the Terps, but they just loaded the box and made Maryland one dimensional. Not to mention it looked like the Terps were a little over-confident going into that matchup after their impressive 2-0 start. This is still the same Owls team that lost outright as favorites at home against both Villanova and Buffalo. Give me the Golden Hurricane +7! |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -4 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -4) I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago at home on Monday Night Football. For me it’s all about the Bears defense. I believe the addition of Mack has taken Chicago from being a good defensive team to a great one. Keep in mind this team quietly finished last year ranked 10th in total defense and 9th in points allowed. I look for Mack and that dominant front 7 of the Bears to have their way with Seattle’s offensive line, which is once again one of the worst units in the league. The Seahawks couldn’t run the ball against the Broncos (64 yards) and Russell Wilson was sacked 6 times and threw two interceptions. Add in the home field edge with Chicago and this being a prime time game and I look for that defense to feast in this one. Note that Seattle is still without their top wide out in Doug Baldwin. The other big key here is I don’t think this Seattle defense is very good. They were very fortunate to only give up 27 points to the Broncos. Case Keenum torched the secondary for 329 yards and 3 scores and Denver piled on 470 total yards. Keenum was just 19 of 35 yesterday against the Raiders and Denver was extremely fortunate to win at home 20-19. You also have to factor in that Seattle will be without both their star linebackers in Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, as well as several other players to injury. The Seahawks are are also historically a slow-starting team under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games in the first two weeks of the season. Chicago is also an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Give me the Bears -4. |
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09-16-18 | Raiders +7 v. Broncos | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Raiders +7) I think the Broncos are getting a little too much respect for a win over what I believe is a Seahawks team that isn’t all that great outside of Russell Wilson. I would be shocked if Seattle ended up in the playoffs this year. On the flip side of this, I think people are writing off Oakland after a 20-point home loss to the Rams. I actually thought the Raiders played well in that game. The Rams are just loaded with talent and are going to do that to a lot of teams this year. I was impressed with the 395 total yards that Oakland racked up against LA, as they actually outgained the Rams by 30 yards on the game. I know the Broncos defense looked great, but they had such a big advantage in the trenches with all the talent they have up front and Seattle having one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Derek Carr was only sacked once by a Rams front that features arguably the two best defensive tackles in the game. They are going to be primed for Von Miller and the Broncos pass rush. Another factor here that has me thinking the spread is a little high here, is the fact that only once in the last 3 seasons (6 meetings) have the Broncos beat Oakland by more than 6-points. That one doesn’t really count in my book, as that was back in Week 17 of the 2016 season where the Raiders were without Carr after he broke his leg the previous week. I know it’s a new team with Gruden, but it’s worth noting that the Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a double-digit loss at home (I think a lot of teams perform well in this spot, as they are highly motivated and a little undervalued on the line). A lot of people think Denver has a big home field edge, but they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are also just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. I’ll gladly take my chances with the Raiders, who I believe are a live dog in this one. Give me Oakland +7. |
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09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -6 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Falcons -6) I think Atlanta is flying under the radar going into Week 2, while I think people are overreacting to the Panthers Week 1 win. Even after scoring just 12 points against the Eagles, I have high expectations for this Falcons’ offense going forward. That Eagles defense is one of the best in the league and while the Panthers are typically strong defensively, they don’t pose the same caliber a pass rush or talent in the secondary. It’s also worth noting that Carolina is still without one of their top linebackers in Thomas Davis, who was suspended for the first 4 games and star middle linebacker Luke Keuchly figures to be playing this at less than 100% after hyper-extending his knee late in the win over Dallas. I’m also not buying the great defensive showing by Carolina in Week 1. The Cowboys offense was a complete mess. For whatever reason Dallas wanted to drop Prescott back and throw to that lackluster receiving corps instead of feeding their best player in Ezekiel Elliott, who had just 15 carries. It’s going to be night and day for the Panthers defense when they line up against the Falcons and all the weapons they have on the field. Not to mention Atlanta’s offense is built for playing inside a dome, where the Panthers defense is best suited on a grass or turf playing surface. Not only has the home team covered 5 of the last 6 meetings, but Matt Ryan is 4-1 in his last 5 home starts against the Panthers and has averaged 333 passing yards in those games. As for Cam Newton, he’s posted some of his worst numbers in Atlanta. He’s completed just 53% of his attempts and averaged a mere 150 passing ypg in his last 5 on the road vs the Falcons. I am aware of the Falcons losing two of their best defensive players in Deion Jones and Keenu Neal, but I still like Dan Quinn’s defense in this one. Carolina has been hit hard with injuries on the offensive side of the ball, most notably the offensive line. Left tackle Matt Kalil is on IR, right tackle Daryl Williams is doubtful and guard Trea Turner is in the concussion protocol. Keep in mind they let All-Pro Andrew Norwell leave in free agency and did little to replace him. They also lost Newton’s favorite target in Greg Olson to a serious foot injury. Add in the fact that the Falcons are going to be the more hungry team, as they are the ones trying to avoid the 0-2 start, and that Atlanta has had 3 more days to prepare and I think this one could get ugly in favor of the home. Give me the Falcons -6. |
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09-16-18 | Texans -3 v. Titans | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -101 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
50* NFL 'AFC SOUTH' GAME OF THE YEAR (Texans -3) I played against the Titans in their Week 1 loss at Miami and I believe that is just the start of what's going to be a really tough year for Tennessee. The Titans were by far the worst team to make the playoffs last year and it simply has them getting way too much respect coming into 2018 and the books are slow to adjust on teams the first couple weeks of the season. Houston lost their opener at New England, but that's a loss you can live with, as it's never easy going up against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady when they have had weeks to prepare for you. I look for Deshaun Watson and that Houston offense to bounce back in a big way in this one. Miami's Ryan Tannehill picked apart the Titans secondary, going 20 of 28 for 230 yards and 2 scores. The Dolphins don't have near the weapons that Houston does. The Titans offense wasn't very good and it doesn't figure to be any better against what I think is an elite Texans defense. Marcus Mariota is banged up (expected to split reps with Blaine Gabbert), their best weapon on the outside, Delanie Walker is now on IR and both starting tackles, Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan aren't expected to play. I think this one could get ugly. Give me the Texans -3! |
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09-16-18 | Chargers -7 v. Bills | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chargers -7) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chargers laying just a touchdown against the Bills. I know you can't overreact to much to Week 1, but I'm pretty confident that Buffalo is the worst team in the league. While I would have loved for the Bills to keep trotting out the horrible Nathan Peterman, rookie Josh Allen isn't that big of an upgrade. He's got some raw talent, but is not ready for the NFL game. I think we got an even better idea of just how bad this Bills team is after watching the Ravens lose to the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Baltimore's defense gave up 21 points in the first 17 minutes of the game after only allowing 3 points and 153 total yards in their 47-3 blowout win over the Bills in Week 1. The Chargers lost in a shootout to KC at home in Week 1, but they outgained the Chiefs 541 to 362. Philip Rivers threw for 424 yards and 3 scores and would have topped 500 yards if it wasn't for his receives dropping a couple of easy catches downfield. This team is tired of starting slow and will be out to lay it on the Bills and I just don't see Buffalo being able to keep this close with how limited they are offensively. Give me Los Angeles -7! |
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09-15-18 | USC v. Texas -3 | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PRIME-TIME ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas -3) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Longhorns laying just a field goal at home. I think even though USC is the team that lost last week, the public is just not a believer in this Texas team. So many people thought they were going to make that jump back to being elite in 2018, but that was thrown out the window in their Week 1 loss to Maryland and less than impressive showing against Tulsa to follow it up. The 2nd half against the Golden Hurricane wasn’t great, but I liked how Texas started out that game. You almost had to wonder if they went into the half up 21-0 and started looking ahead to this game against USC. This is definitely one Texas had circled on the calendar after how they blew that game last year in Los Angeles. Add in this being a home game and it coming at night in front of what will be an electric crowd in Austin and I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for Texas to win this game by more than a field goal. My biggest thing with USC is I think they are getting way too much respect coming into this season. I know the Trojans recruit well, but anytime you lose a quarterback the caliber of Sam Darnold, there’s going to be some setbacks. I really like the potential of Daniels, but he’s just a kid and we saw him not look nearly as good on the road against Stanford as he did in the opener at home. I think that’s a trend that will keep repeating itself as this season goes on, especially when USC plays on the road against a quality opponent. It’s also worth noting that while Daniels is expected to play, he’s a little banged up, as he suffered an injury to his throwing hand in the loss to the Cardinal. USC is just 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 road games and are on a miserable 3-13-1 run ATS over their last 17 games. They have also failed to cover each of their last 6 non-conference games and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in September. Give me the Longhorns -3. |
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09-15-18 | LSU v. Auburn -10 | 22-21 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Auburn -10) While Auburn has a ton of big games on their schedule, there’s no question this is one they had circled. They haven’t forgot about that ugly collapse against LSU in Baton Rouge last year and revenge is definitely an angle I look to back in the SEC. Going back to 2000, a team that lost as a favorite the previous year is 125-89-7 (58%) ATS in the next meeting. You also have to factor in just how much home field has meant in the series. The road team has lost each of the last 5 meetings and only twice in the last 18 times these teams have played has the home team loss. While motivation is a huge factor, it’s not the only reason I like Auburn to win here by double-digits. I think Auburn’s defense is going to make life miserable on the LSU offense. Despite winning comfortably against Miami, LSU only had 296 total yards in the win. They also managed just 335 against Southeastern Louisiana and looked lost at times against a FCS defense. Ohio State transfer, Joe Burrow is getting a lot of praise for leading LSU to two wins, but I haven’t been that impressed. It’s one thing to struggle against Miami (11 of 24 for just 140 yards), but to go just 10 of 20 for 151 yards against the Lions is a major concern for me. I believe for LSU to effectively move the football in this game, Burrows is going to have to be a difference-maker in the passing game. That’s because Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in the country. They held Washington’s star running back, Myles Gaskin to just 75 yards as Washington was forced to attack them thru the air. I just don’t see LSU being able to establish the running game to the point where they can sustain drives without Burrows making some big plays with his arm. I think he’s going to have a really tough time playing well on the road and could see a couple costly turnovers that turn a close game into a blowout. I also don’t think it’s a given that LSU’s defense is going to be able to contain this Auburn offense, which features one of the best signal callers in the SEC in junior Jarrett Stidham. Keep in mind while they only managed 21 points against Washington, Auburn had 420 total yards and 27 first downs against a Huskies defense that was considered to be one of the best in the country. It’s also worth noting how these two teams have performed coming off a comfortable win. Auburn is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 off a win by more than 20 points, while LSU is just 1-3-1 in their last 5 off a win by 20 or more. The Tigers are also 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in September and Auburn is 15-5 ATS under Gus Malzahn after a game in which they scored at least 42 points. Give me Auburn -10. |
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09-15-18 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -14 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
50* NCAAF 'MAC' GAME OF THE MONTH (N. Illinois -14) I'll gladly take my chances here with Northern Illinois laying just two touchdowns at home against a Central Michigan team that just lost at home to Kansas (Jayhawks had lost 46 straight on the road). While the Chippewas did lose by just 15 at Kentucky, that was a much bigger mismatch than the final score would lead on. Kentucky had a 427-255 edge in total yards. Northern Illinois comes in at 0-2, but that was almost to be expected given they opened up the season at Iowa and at home against Utah. They ended up losing 33-7 to the Hawkeyes, but that was just 3-0 at the half. They were down just 7-6 in the 4th quarter and were still in it until a late pick six by the Utes (lost 17-6). Sitting at 0-2 the Huskies are way undervalued and ready to lay a whopping on someone. Lucky for them the Chippewas are a team they can do just that against. Not to mention a team they want to beat badly after losing to them in the regular-season finale last year. Central Michigan only had 280 yards at home against Kansas and turned it over 6 times. This is one of the worst offenses in the FBS and I fully expect Northern Illinois to win here by 20+ points. Give me the Huskies -14! |
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09-15-18 | Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh +3.5 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SHOCKER (Pitt +3.5) I'll gladly take my chances with Pitt as a home dog against the Yellow Jackets. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to Pitt’s 51-6 blowout loss at home last week to Penn State. The outcome simply doesn’t do justice to the caliber a team the Panthers are. They were a couple breaks away early in that game from a much different outcome. As for Georgia Tech, I have a lot of concerns with this team’s performance against South Florida. The Yellow Jackets made the Bulls look a lot better than they actually are. Simply put, Georgia Tech should not be favored on the road, especially in conference play. The biggest key for me is the Panthers offense should have a field day against this Georgia Tech defense. The Yellow Jackets gave up 224 rushing yards and 3 scores on the ground against South Florida and Pitt showed their running game is for real with 245 yards against a good Penn State defense. I look for a big bounce back game from Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett, who didn’t get to really showcase his arm against the Nittany Lions because of a steady rain. Not only do I think Pitt will be able to put up points, but I also think the defense could make things difficult on a banged up Georgia Tech offense. The Panthers have their most talented defense since Pat Narduzzi took over and all those returning starters have prepared in years past for this Georgia Tech option offense. The Yellow Jackets lost starting B-back KirVonte Benson for the season in their loss to USF and Benson torched the Panthers last year for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns. Starting quarterback TaQuon Marshall is going to be playing at less than 100% and starting center Kenny Cooper is questionable to play with a foot injury. I definitely like the revenge factor with Pitt losing last year’s meeting at Georgia 35-17, but I also think this is a really tough spot for the Yellow Jackets. It stings anytime you blow a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter and those games you feel like you should have won are the toughest to bounce back from. Add in the fact that they are hosting Clemson next week, easily their biggest home game of the season and I think there’s a good chance they come out flat against a hungry Pitt team. Give me the Panthers +3.5. |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
40* RAVENS/BENGALS TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bengals +1.5) As good as Baltimore looked against the Bills, a lot of that had to do with just how bad Buffalo is, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Nathan Peterman is not an NFL quarterback and it’s crazy the Bills went into a season with him as their starter. He was 5 of 18 for 24 yards and threw two interceptions before getting pulled in favor of rookie Josh Allen. I look for the Ravens defense to have a much tougher time against Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Dalton was sharp against the Colts, completing 21 of 28 for 243 yards and we got a taste of just how dynamic running back Joe Mixon could be this year. Mixon had 95 rushing yards on just 17 attempts and caught 5 passes for 54 yards. Cincinnati also had to be happy with the pay of tight end Tyler Effect, who had 3 catches for 44 yards. It’s not just all about stopping A.J. Green. The offensive numbers for Baltimore were solid, but a lot of that had to do with the Bills’ offense not being able to sustain a drive. Buffalo didn’t get a first down until the 3rd quarter. While Joe Flacco threw for 236 yards and 3 scores, the Ravens running game struggled to get going. Baltimore had just 117 yards on 34 attempts for just 3.4 yards/carry and that was with Lamar Jackson accounting for 39 yards on 7 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). Cincinnati’s defense struggled to contain Luck on the road, but I think that will be the case for most defenses when they travel to Indy. They were much better against the run, allowing just 75 yards on 22 attempts. I think if they can slow down Baltimore’s ground game, they can get after Flacco and make things difficult on the Ravens offense. Say what you want about Dalton, but he’s 24-13 ATS as a starter at home, including an impressive 7-1 ATS mark when his team is listed as a home dog. As for Flacco, he’s just 5-7 ATS as a road favorite and 3-6 ATS in 9 meetings against the Bengals with Marvin Lewis as the head coach. Give me Cincinnati +1.5! |
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09-13-18 | Boston College -4.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Boston College -4.5) As much as I don’t like road favorites in these weekday games, I would have to leans towards laying the points with the Eagles in this one. I just feel like Boston College is the far superior team in this matchup. I know they aren’t ranked right now, but I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Eagles crack the Top 25. Not only is BC the more talented team, but I love that they are playing with revenge from last year’s ugly 24-point loss at home to Wake Forest. Another huge factor here is home field hasn’t exactly meant a lot in this series. In fact, the road team has won outright each of the last 4 years. I also feel like this Boston College team is built to win games on the road. The Eagles can ground and pound you on offense and are very sound defensively. They have all 5 starters back on the offensive line and one of the best running backs in the country in sophomore A.J. Dillion. As for the defense, that side of the ball has been the strength of this team under head coach Steve Addazio and with 5 of their top 6 tacklers back from last year, they should be one of the best the ACC has to offer. I also want to point out that the Eagles are more than capable of attacking teams through the air. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Brown started 10 games as a freshman and he’s got his top 6 receivers back. Not to mention, he’s going to really benefit from defenses having to load the box. This has the makings of the best offense in the Addazio era. Wake Forest is a program on the rise under head coach Dave Clawson, but they figure to come into this fight short-handed. Projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton won’t be available until next week, as he finishes up serving a 3-game suspension. They have already lost starting left tackle Justin Herron and running back Arkeem Byrd to season ending injuries. Starting safety Cameron Glenn (last year’s leading tackler) and starting corner Ameri Henderson are also both questionable to play, as is one of their top returning wide outs in Scotty Washington. The Demon Deacons were fortunate to leave New Orleans with a win over Tulane in their opener and while they ended up beating Towson by 31-points, they were tied 14-14 at the end of the 1st quarter and really didn’t separate themselves until Gerg Dortch returned two punts for touchdowns in the 2nd quarter. Turnovers have also been a problem, as Wake has already coughed it up 5 times after only giving it away 13 times all of last year. All these things are going to make it very difficult for Demon Deacons to keep this game close. Give me the Eagles -6.5! |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions -7 | 48-17 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
40* NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ATS KNOCKOUT (Lions -7) There's a lot of people who are excited about the Jets with rookie Sam Darnold at quarterback, but I just have to go with Detroit at home in this one. Darnold is talented, but has a long way to go. I just don't trust his decision making and think he's going to have a difficult time playing well on the road in what's going to be a very hostile environment. My biggest concern here is the Jets not being able to run the ball effectively, which is really going to put the pressure on Darnold. I also think New York's defense is going to have a really tough time slowing down Stafford and that Lions offense. Stafford has a ton of weapons at his disposal and I love the addition of LeGarrette Blount to help in short-yardage situations, an area they really struggled with in past years. I also think rookie Kerryon Johnson could be a difference-maker. The Jets will be without starting safety Marcus Made, as well as starting linebacker Josh Martin. Two big losses. I also don't think NY did much to improve a dreadful pass rush that finished 28th in the league last year in sacks. Give me the Lions -7! |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Panthers | 8-16 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NFL UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Cowboys +3) With all the hype around the Eagles off their Super Bowl and the Giants getting Saquon Barkley, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Dallas in the NFC East. The Cowboys won 9 games last year despite Zeke missing almost half the season and he just wasn't the same guy with all the off the field shit he had to deal with. People are going to say Prescott has no one to throw to after the loss of Dez Byrant and Jason Witten. While Witten's departure is a big one, Bryant was a cancer in that locker room. I think Prescott will be much better taking what the defense gives him and he's going to have his chances with how much teams will have to load the box to stop the run. Carolina's got some big injuries up front on the offensive line and this Dallas defense is young and talented. I think the Cowboys go into Carolina and get the win. Give me Dallas +3! |
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09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -112 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals -1) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinals at basically a pick'em at home against the Redskins. Arizona has an underrated homefield edge and I think this team is going into the 2018 season with a chip on their shoulder. No one is giving them any respect, despite the fact that they managed to win 8 games with their best offensive player, David Johnson, playing in just one game and starting QB, Carson Palmer, missing half the season. Johnson is back healthy and is one of the most dynamic backs in the league and Arizona did a more than adequate job of replacing Palmer with veteran Sam Bradford. As for the Redskins, I think this team is going to be in trouble. Alex Smith isn't going to be the same quarterback under Jay Gruden as he was under Andy Reid and he doesn't have near the weapons at his disposal. Give me the Cardinals -1! |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Vikings -6.5) I'm not buying all the hype around Jimmy G and the 49ers going into 2018. I'm not saying he isn't going to be a great quarterback, but let's not get carried away with how a bad team finished strong. I think 49ers still have a long way to go in terms of talent to compete with the top teams in this league and Minnesota might just be the most talented team in the NFC. One thing is for sure, the Vikings have an elite defense and I expect them to show out at home against SF. I also think people are underestimating the addition of Kirk Cousins. The guy is a legit quarterback and is finally going to play on a team that can run the football and get stops on the defensive side of the ball. I don't think it's asking a lot for Minnesota to win by a touchdown. Note they won by an average of double-digits at home last year. Give me the Vikings -6.5! |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins +2 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Dolphins +2) No way should the Titans be favored on the road here. Tennessee is getting way too much after making the playoffs last year. The Titans were no where near as good as their record would indicate and might be the worst team in their own division with Andrew Luck back in Indy. It's going to be hot and humid in Miami on Sunday and that's a big edge for the Dolphins, who I think are flying under the radar. Last year was a lost cause for Miami when starting QB Ryan Tannehill was lost before the season ever started. Tannehill has looked sharp in the preseason and this is a team that won 10-games in 2016 with him as the starter. Give me the Dolphins +2! |
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09-08-18 | Kentucky v. Florida -13.5 | 27-16 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Florida -13.5) There's been no shortage of talent in Gainesville and now they have a legit head coach in Dan Mullen, who did an amazing job developing and improving the talent he had to work with at Mississippi State. With 19 starters back and off an ugly 4-7 season, I think the Gators or primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country and got a legit shot at knocking off Georgia for the SEC East title. I got a lot of respect for what Mark Stoops has done with Kentucky, but they just don't have the talent to keep this game close on the road against a loaded Florida team. The atmosphere is going to be electric at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and that's going to spell trouble for Wildcats first year starter Terry Wilson. Keep in mind we saw a similar priced game the last time Kentucky visited Florida in 2015 (+16) and the Gators won that going away 45-7. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who have 9 or more offensive starters returning and coming off a game where they gained 6.25 or more yards/play are 57-25 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. These teams on average have won by 22 ppg and I fully expect the Gators to win here by at least 21 and all we need is for them to win by 14. Give me Florida -13.5! |
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09-08-18 | Arkansas -13.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Arkansas -13.5) I'll gladly back the Razorbacks laying less than two touchdowns against Colorado State. The Rams are way down this year, as they only bring back 9 starters from a team that only went 7-6 a year ago. The offense hasn't been good in the first two games and that's no surprise. They had just 7 points midway thru the 3rd quarter against a horrible Hawaii defense and managed just 13 points and 284 yards against Colorado in their second game. Not only did they lose one of their all-time passing leaders in Nick Stevens, but they lost a 1,400 yard back and receiver. Arkansas gets overlooked by a lot of people because they play in the loaded SEC West, but the Razorbacks are going to surprise some people in Chad Morris' first season. Arkansas has 17 returning starters back from last year. The put up 55 potions behind a high-powered passing attack that accounted for 353 yards in the opening win against Eastern Illinois. In Colorado State's first two games their secondary has been absolutely torched, giving up 418 passing yards to Hawaii and 338 against the Buffaloes (also allowed 258 yards rushing to Colorado). With the limitations of the offense, this team has no shot of keeping this game close. Give me the Razorbacks -13.5! |
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09-08-18 | Colorado v. Nebraska -3 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -3) I have really high expectations for Nebraska this season and just can't pass up on the Cornhuskers only laying a field goal at home against the Buffaloes. Especially given how fired up Nebraska is going to be for this game, as their opener was canceled because of weather. I think people are expecting a much improved Cornhuskers offense under new head coach Scott Frost, but I don't think people outside of Lincoln are aware of the talent they have at quarterback in true freshman Adrian Martinez. He's flashed in practice and was a Frost recruit. I think he's going to have the Nebraska offense firing on all cylinders. I know Colorado held Colorado State to just 13 points, but they held the Rams to just 3 points last year and would up being a pretty average defensive team. Keep in mind that's a Colorado State defense that had just 7 points midway through the 3rd quarter against an awful Hawaii defense. The other thing people are going to over look with Nebraska is their defense, which is coming off a horrific 2017 season, where they gave up 36.4 ppg and 436 ypg. New defensive coordinator Erik Chinander came over with Frost from UCF and in his first season with the Knights he took a defense that had allowed 37.7 ppg the previous year to allowing just 24.6 ppg. I think this one could get ugly. Give me Nebraska -3! |
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09-08-18 | Mississippi State -7 v. Kansas State | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Mississippi St -7) As much as I don't like betting against Kansas State as a home dog, I don’t see anyway the Wildcats can keep this within double-digits. I thought the Bulldogs hire of Moorehead was one of the most underrated coaching hires of the entire offseason. Moorehead spent the last two years as the OC for Penn State and was the mastermind behind the Nittany Lions revival. When he took over at Penn State the Nittany Lions averaged just 23.2 ppg the previous year. In his first season he had them scoring 37.6 ppg. I don't think people realize just how potent this Mississippi State offense is going to be.A lot of people are going to shrug off the 63 points and over 600+ yards of total offense they put up in their opener because it came against SF Austin. Not me. The Bulldogs did all of that without starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who was suspended for the first game. I just don’t see Kansas State being able to keep pace offensively in this one. The Wildcats were lucky to come away with a 27-24 win at home over South Dakota in their opener at home, as they were getting dominated basically the entire game. I just don’t know how this team is going to be able to move the football against this loaded Mississippi State defense. For Kansas State’s offense to be effective they have to be able to run the football. I don’t see that happening against this loaded Mississippi State defensive line, which is right there with Alabama and Georgia as one of the best defensive lines in the SEC and not far behind the likes of Ohio State and Clemson. Give me the Bulldogs -7! |
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09-08-18 | Georgia Tech -3 v. South Florida | 38-49 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS NO-BRAINER (Georgia Tech -3) I'll gladly lay just a field goal with Georgia Tech against USF. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a 5-6 campaign, but rarely does this team struggle in back-to-back years. They went 3-9 in 2015 and followed that up by going 9-4. With 13 starters back, including 8 on offense, I expect Georgia Tech to be a much stronger team in 2018. They certainly looked the par in their 41-0 blowout win over Alcorn State in their opener. Georgia Tech piled on 543 yards, while the defense held the Braves to just 146 yards. I look for the Yellow Jackets to have no problem running all over a South Florida defense that only brings back 5 starters and had to replace 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line. I also think the Bulls are going to be way down offensively this year. Not only did they lose their do it all quarterback in Quinton Flowers, but they lost their top two running backs and No. 1 receiver. The thing is this team is still getting a ton of respect from going 21-4 over the last 2 seasons. Now is the time to fade the Bulls. Give me Georgia Tech -3! |
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09-07-18 | TCU -22 v. SMU | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (TCU -22) I’m not a huge fan of playing big road favorites in weekday games. Especially knowing the public will be all over the same side and TCU having a massive game on deck against Ohio State next week. With that said, I can't help myself but lay the big number with the Horned Frogs. I just have a hard time seeing how SMU can keep this game close after how poorly their offense played against North Texas. A team they beat last year 54-32. The Mustangs finished the game with a mere 256 yards and most of that came in garbage time, as they couldn’t even get first downs the first 3 quarters of that game (208 of their 256 total yards came in the 4th quarter, It's also worth pointing out the offensive line allowed 9 sacks. I think that’s a really bad sign for SMU going forward, as the biggest thing for me with this team is how the offense would fair after losing Morris. I wasn’t a fan at all of the hire of Sonny Dykes and that performance against the Mean Green tells me this team is in some serious trouble in 2018. If they can’t get first downs against North Texas, how in the heck are they going to move the ball against a TCU defense that many believe have the best defense in the Big 12. You have to think the Horned Frogs are going to score at will on this SMU defense. The Mustangs could score in the 20’s and still not cover the spread. As far as this being a bad spot to take TCU because of the lookahead to Ohio State, I think there’s two key things that will keep the Horned Frogs from laying an egg. The first is this being the only game on the board. Players love showing out in nationally televised prime time games. The other is they came out flat last year against SMU and found themselves luckily to only be down 19-7 early in the 2nd quarter. They ended up winning that game by a final score of 56-36. I have a hard time seeing Gary Patterson letting his team come out sluggish against the same opponent two years in a row. Give me the Horned Frogs -22! It’s also worth noting that TCU is 34-18 ATS under Patterson off a win as a favorite where the team failed to cover the spread, while SMU is a mere 4-19 ATS in their last 23 home games off a contest where they were outgained by 225 or more yards. Give me the Horned Frogs -21.5! |
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09-06-18 | Falcons +1.5 v. Eagles | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
50* FALCONS/EAGLES VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Falcons +1.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta on the road against the defending champs. No team had to be more sick about the Eagles going on to win the Super Bowl than the Falcons. That’s because Atlanta had to feel like they should have won that game against Philadelphia in the playoffs. The Falcons had to be ecstatic when the schedule was released. Not only do they get a chance at revenge, but they have a shot at ruining what will be special night for Eagles’ fans. Not to mention it’s a prime time game, where everyone will be glued to the TV for the first game of a new season. I’m not just taking the Falcons because of the huge motivation angle, but I think they are the better team in this matchup. The Eagles may have won the Super Bowl without Wentz, but it’s absurd to think they are just as good with Foles. Wentz being out for this game is massive, as I think Foles will struggle to come close to how he played in the Super Bowl. Especially given the Eagles top wide out, Alshon Jeffrey, is doubtful to play. Not to mention the offense was atrocious with Foles in the preseason. I just don’t see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively with Matt Ryan and the Falcons. A lot of people criticized Atlanta’s offense last year because it wasn’t as good as the 2016 version under Kyle Shanahan. The Falcons still managed to finish in the Top 10 in total offense. They should be even better in year-two under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and I love the addition of rookie wideout Calvin Ridley, who they took in the 1st round. I also don’t think Atlanta’s defense gets near the respect they deserve. Dan Quinn has done a masterful job of turning the Falcons into one of the top defensive teams in the league. Atlanta was 9th in total defense (318.4 ypg) and 8th in scoring defense (19.7 ppg) last year. Given how young they were on that side of the ball and how much talent they have coming back, there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to get better. Give me the Falcons +1.5! |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
40* FSU/VA TECH LABOR DAY ATS MASSACRE (Va Tech +7.5) I think the perception with Florida State is that they are going to bounce back in a big way in 2018, but I’m not completely sold on the Seminoles returning to elite status. I know Taggert has a great background, but there’s a bit of a learning curve when you making a coaching change. FSU is undergoing scheme changes on both sides of the ball. Simply put, I think the loss of Fisher is going to have a big impact on this team in a negative way. I’m not saying the Seminoles shouldn’t be favored at home, but laying over a touchdown is a bit much against a Virginia Tech program that appears on the rise under Fuente. There’s been a lot of talk about how young the Hokies are going to be defensively and I think that’s scaring people away from this team. While they will be young, they still have a ton of talent and one of the best defensive coordinators in the game in Bud Foster. While the lack of experience coming back on defense is getting a lot of publicity with Virginia Tech, people are overlooking how much Florida State lost from their stop unit. In fact, the Seminoles have fewer starters (4) coming back on defense than the Hokies (5). FSU lost their top 4 tacklers and 6 of their top 8 (3 players taken in first 4 rounds of NFL draft). I know the Seminoles will have Deondre Fancois back at quarterback, but he could be working with a depleted receiving corps. Last year’s leading wide out, Nyqwan Murray is questionable with a knee injury and projected starter D.J. Matthews is questionable with a back injury. I just don’t see Florida State running away with this game to where they can cover this number and wouldn’t be shocked if they lost the game outright. Give me the Hokies +7.5! |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL -3 v. LSU | 17-33 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF MIAMI/LSU ATS NO-BRAINER (Miami -3) Mark Richt has this program headed back to being a legit national title contender. With 14 starters back (7 offense, 7 defense), I believe they are fully capable of winning the ACC and making the 4-team playoff.. It’s hard to find a weakness with this Miami team. The offense should be even better than it was a year ago. They get back senior quarterback Malik Rosier, who threw for over 3,000 yards with 26 touchdowns and another 468 yards and 5 scores on the ground. Rosier won’t have to do it all, as Miami gets back talented running back Travis Homer and are loaded up front on the offensive line. The Hurricanes do lose their top 2 receivers, but have a ton of big recruits ready to step in. Defensively Miami should field one of the best stop units in the country. They have their top 5 tacklers back from last year’s team that allowed just 21.0 ppg and 363 ypg. They know how to get to the quarterback (44 sacks last year) and were one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers. Miami only lost the turnover battle twice all of last season. I know LSU recruits extremely well and have some nice talent on the roster, but I just don’t have a good feeling about this program. I’m not a fan of Orgeron and believe this will be his last year in Baton Rouge. The biggest thing for me is the lack of experience that LSU has coming back for 2018. Not only do they have just 10 starters come back, but they bring back just 47 lettermen (only Kentucky has fewer returning lettermen in the SEC). While there’s a good chance the defense will be sharp, I have major concerns with the offense, which has to replace their starting quarterback, top 4 rushers and top 3 receivers from last year. I know people are excited about Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow taking over at quarterback, but I’m not sold on him stepping in and putting up big numbers. Give me Miami -3! |
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09-01-18 | BYU +12 v. Arizona | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS DESTROYER (BYU +12) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cougars as a double-digit dog at Arizona. The Wildcats are getting a ton of love going into the season because of all the hype surrounding quarterback Khalil Tate. On the flip side of this, BYU isn't exactly a team the public wants to back after they went just 4-9 last year. I believe it's created some big time value with the Cougars, who keep in mind beat Arizona in the opener a couple years ago as a 1-point favorite. Tate is a good player and his big runs can be exciting, but teams started to key on him more as last season progressed and his production declined. Arizona as a team went just 1-4 in their final 5 games. It's hard to explain the falloff for BYU last year, but you can't overlook the fact that they had to play LSU, Utah and Wisconsin in a 3-game stretch after opening with Portland St. Starting quarterback Tanner Magnum was banged up early and was never really himself, which had a lot to do with the team not living up to their potential. He's back healthy and the Cougars have 14 starters back. They also have 60 total lettermen returning, making them one of the Top 10 most experienced teams in the country. I think this team is going to be greatly improved and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Give me the Cougars +12! |
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09-01-18 | Michigan +1.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
50* NCAAF PRIME TIME SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Michigan +1.5) Not to take anything away from Notre Dame, who I think is without a doubt one of the Top 25 most talented teams in the country, I just like Michigan that much more. I know the Wolverines have struggled to win the big games since Harbaugh took over, but a lot of that had to do with the lack of talent he had to work with at the quarterback position. In his first year he had to rely on Iowa transfer Jake Rudock. In year two it was Wilson Speight and last year it was a combination of Speight, John O’Korn and Brandon Peters. I think the addition of Shea Patterson finally gives Harbuagh the talent at quarterback to not just win the Big Ten, but the national championship. Keep in mind we saw Michigan average 40.3 ppg in 2016 with Speight at quarterback. With all of their top skill players back and a solid offensive line that will have three starters back, I have a hard time believing this won’t be the most prolific offense of the Harbaugh era in Ann Arbor. If the offense rounds into the form most are expecting, it’s going to be extremely difficult for teams to score enough to beat this team. Michigan’s defense is absolutely loaded with NFL talent and just might be the best stop unit in the country. They have 9 starters back from a unit that only gave up 18.8 ppg and 271 ypg. Keep in mind they put up those ridiculous numbers last year with a mere 1 starter back from the previous season. I just don’t see Notre Dame being able to generate enough offense to win this game. Wimbush is a much bigger threat to run the ball than he is to throw it. He only completed 49.5% of his pass attempts last year and will be working behind an offensive line that has to replace two 1st round draft picks. The Irish also lose leading rusher Josh Adams and his replacement, senior Dexter Williams, is suspended for the first 4 games. Give me the Wolverines +1.5! |
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09-01-18 | SMU v. North Texas -4.5 | 23-46 | Win | 102 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (North Texas -4.5) I'll gladly take North Texas a mere 4.5-point home favorite against SMU. The Mean Green are coming off a surprising 9-win season and I see no reason for them not to build off that success, as they are now in year 3 under head coach Seth Littrell and have 17 starters back (one of the most experienced teams in the country). While North Texas is loaded and trending in the right direction, SMU is in a bit of flux, as they have to adjust to life without head coach Chad Morris, who parlayed his success with the Mustangs to a job at Arkansas. Sonny Dykes replaces Morris and I wasn't a huge fan of his in his previous stint at Cal. With the addition of Dykes also comes scheme changes on both sides of the ball and it was Morris' schemes, especially on offense that got SMU back to being competitive. I look for the offense to struggle to get going on the road in the first game of the season. I know North Texas' defense wasn't great last year, but they got 8 starters back and added in some nice JUCO transfers. They will be improved. Morris improved the defense in his time at SMU, but it remained a weakness. I just don't see them being able to contain what I think will be one of the best offenses in the C-USA, which is saying something. Give me North Texas -4.5! |
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09-01-18 | Louisiana Tech -10 v. South Alabama | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
50* NCAAF OPENING WEEK GAME OF THE YEAR (Louisiana Tech -10) I'll gladly take my chances on Louisiana Tech as a mere 10-point favorite against South Alabama. I'm extremely high on the Bulldogs in 2018, as they will be one of the most experienced teams in the country with 15 starters and 52 lettermen back from last year, including talented junior quarterback J'Mar Smith. It's the first time that Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz will have his starting quarterback back, which is really amazing given this is his 6th year with the team. I think this year's offense will rival the 2015 Bulldogs, which put up 44.3 ppg and 515 ypg. I look for them to score at will here against the Jaguars. South Alabama is one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt, which is hands down the worst FBS conference. The Jaguars went just 4-8 last year and the defense struggled to contain the top offenses they faced. That included a game against Louisiana Tech, which they were lucky to only give up 34 points, as the Bulldogs had nearly 500 yards of offense. The other key here is Louisiana Tech is expected to have their best defense yet of the Holtz era and the stop unit is what will allow the Bulldogs to create separation. South Alabama only averaged 19.9 ppg and 334 ypg last year. They should be better, but will not be able to keep pace here. Give me Louisiana Tech -10! |
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09-01-18 | Florida Atlantic +21 v. Oklahoma | 14-63 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (FAU +21) I just feel the Sooners are getting way too much respect given what they lost at quarterback. I know they have former Texas A&M transfer, Kyler Murray, ready to take over, but it’s ludicrous to think he’s going to put up anywhere close to the number of the Heisman winner. Mayfield completed a ridiculous 70.5% of his 404 pass attempts last year, throwing for more than 4,600 yards with a ridiculous 43-6 TD-INT ratio. What also gets lost is how having a player as talented as Mayfield at quarterback makes everyone else around him look better. I’m not saying the Sooners offense won’t score a ton of points, but they aren’t going to be as prolific on that side of the ball. Let’s also not overlook this FAU defense, which has 10 starters back from a unit that only gave up 22.7 ppg and 390 ypg last year. Oklahoma also lost some big pieces on the defensive side of the ball and you can bet that Kiffin will have the Owls offense well prepared for what they will see from the Sooners defense. I know FAU has just 5 starters back on offense and has to replace their starting QB, but they have two Power 5 transfers competing for the open job. One of those is former Oklahoma recruit Chris Robison, who Kiffin has compared to Johnny Manziel. FAU also has one of the best running backs in the country in Devin Singletary, who is coming off a season in which he rushed for 1,920 yards and 32 touchdowns. While he’s unlikely to put up video game like numbers against a Power 5 defense, keep in mind he had 68 yards and a score on 17 carries last year against a stout Wisconsin run defense (only gave up 98 ypg rushing). I also have some concerns here with Oklahoma not giving the Owls their full attention with a home game against UCLA on deck and a big revenge game the following week against Iowa State (beat them on their home field last year). As for FAU, they are going to give the Sooners every thing they got, as this is their only chance to show how good they are against a Power 5 team. I don’t think an outright upset is out of the question, but either way I’m confident they keep it within the number. Give me FAU +21! |
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08-31-18 | Colorado State v. Colorado -7.5 | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Colorado -7.5) I'm really high on Colorado this season. I think they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the Pac-12. At the same time, I'm way down on Colorado State and recommended a play on Hawaii in "Week Zero" as a big dog and wasn’t the least bit surprised to see them lose outright. Simply put, I don’t think the spread is high enough. I would be shocked if Colorado didn’t win here by double-digits. It’s interesting to note that this is a near identical scheduling scenario to last year, when Colorado State hosted Oregon State in “Week Zero” and had to turn around and play Colorado the following Friday. The Buffaloes ended up winning that contest 17-3. It continued a dominant stretch for Colorado in this in-state rivalry, as they have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, including all 3 since Mike Bobo replaced Jim McElwain at Colorado State. I also don’t think people are factoring in just how bad a loss that was to Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors aren’t expected to be bowl eligible at season end and that’s a team they dominated a season ago by 30-points on the road. While Colorado only has 4 starters back on offense from last year, there actually in a lot better shape than people realize. Not only do they have a talented quarterback in Montez, but they added in Virginia Tech transfer Travon McMillian at running back, which will ease the loss of Phillip Lindsay, who left as the school’s #2 all-time rusher. They also have a couple of Power 5 transfers in Juwaan Winfree (Maryland) and Tony Brown (Texas Tech) at wide receiver. Keep in mind that while Colorado’s defense took a big step back last year, they only gave up a mere 3 points to a talented Colorado State offense that went on to average 33.4 ppg. All signs point to the Buffaloes being greatly improved on that side of the ball and I think we could end up seeing a similar outcome to when these two teams met in 2016, which Colorado won 44-7 as a mere 8-point favorite. Give me the Buffaloes -7.5! |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest v. Tulane +6 | Top | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Tulane +6) The public will undoubtedly be drawn to playing Wake Forest. They see an ACC team that won 8 games last year going up against a team that has been to one bowl since 2002. They will gladly lay the points, as to them this line will likely seem to small. I personally think there’s a ton of value with Tulane, as I believe they have a legit shot at winning this game outright. I think there’s going to be a buzz around this Green Wave team in New Orleans and I expect a rowdy home crowd for Tulane. They went 4-2 at home last year, including an upset win of Houston as a 9-point dog and a mere 28-34 loss to #16 USF. I’m not sure everyone is aware that Tulane is running the option offense, but that’s definitely a factor here. Wake Forest only returns has to replace 4 starters in their front 7 on defense. Keep in mind they did have some troubles against the run last year, giving up 4.4 yards/carry and 186 yards/game. The Green Wave have 4 of their 5 starters back on the offensive line and a senior quarterback in Banks that knows how to operate the option offense. I know Tulane’s defense loses a lot, but they have really taken some nice strides since Fritz took over. I think they will be better than expected and will feed off the home crowd in this one. Another huge factor in favor of the Green Wave being able to hold their own is projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton is suspended for the first 3 games of the season. Hilton was the clear-cut favorite to win the job, as he had previously beat out Wolford. Talented backup running back Arkeem Byrd has also been lost for the year to a torn ACL and starting wide out Scotty Washington is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Washington's loss can't be overlooked, as the Demon Deacons already had to replace two guys who combined for more than 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns. I think we could really see the Demon Deacons offense struggle to get going and if Tulane doesn’t fumble (rarely throw), they will have a good shot at winning the turnover battle. I believe the smart play here is to grab the points. Give me the Green Wave +6! |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 53 m | Show |
50* PATS/EAGLES SUPER BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Pats -4) As much respect as I have for the Eagles, I don’t know how you go against the Patriots in this scenario. On one side you have arguably both the greatest head coach (Bill Belichick) and quarterback (Tom Brady) to ever play the game. On the other side you have a head coach (Doug Pederson) that is in just his second year as a head coach with a backup quarterback (Foles) filling in for a MVP candidate (Wentz). I know the Patriots historically haven’t blown teams out in the Super Bowl, but it’s not asking a lot for New England to win here by 6 or more. I think the experience factor for New England and having been here and handled all that comes with playing in a Super Bowl is a huge edge. I also think it’s a massive advantage any time you give Belichick two weeks to prepare for opponent. The public is on the Eagles and the points here, especially having just watched the Patriots struggle against the Jags and Philadelphia completely dominating the Vikings. More times than not the public loses in these high-profile games. Couple things that you can’t overlook from those outcomes. The Patriots went up against the best defense in the NFL and Brady wasn’t 100%. Not to mention he played the majority of the game without his top weapon in Gronkowski. As for the Eagles, I think they benefitted not only from playing at home in the underdog role, but I also think the Vikings suffered a major letdown after their miracle win over the Saints the week before. Give Foles credit. He played a great game against the Vikings, but let’s not forget how much this offense struggled to move the ball in the Division Round against the Falcons, where they only managed 15 points. I’m not saying he won’t play well in the Super Bowl, I just wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick devised a game-plan that made life miserable for Foles and the Eagles. Give me the Patriots -4 |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars +9 v. Patriots | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 7 m | Show |
50* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR (Jags +9) I think the Jaguars not only have an excellent shot at keeping this game within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they went into New England and won the game outright. I just think that Jacksonville is the ideal opponent to take down the Pats. The teams that Brady and the Patriots have struggled against during their ridiculous run over the last decade are teams that can put pressure on the quarterback without having to blitz. In fact, in the postseason, New England is just 4-4 when facing top tier pressure teams, compared to 6-2 against teams that don't put pressure on the quarterback. Pats average almost 11 ppg less and Brady's TD-INT ration is just 15-12 compared to 20-5. Not only do the Jags have the talent on the defensive line to put pressure on Brady without blitzing, they have the talent and speed at linebacker to cover the running backs out of the backfield and playmakers in the secondary who can at least give some resistance to Gronk. I know there's some concerns with Jacksonville's offense and how they will score, but I think they can do enough here to keep it close in what I feel will be a low-scoring game. Give me the Jaguars +9! |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 68 h 36 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jags +7.5) I'll gladly take my chances with Jacksonville and the points on Sunday. I think this Jaguars defense is not only good enough to keep this game close, but good enough to propel Jacksonville to the AFC Championship Game. It’s not very often you see a team catching more than a touchdown against an opponent they beat by 21-points early on in the season. That’s just shows you how much the public loves this Steelers team and how little respect and trust the public has for these Jaguars. Most are just going to chalk up that win in the regular season as a fluke and say they got lucky with the turnovers. I’m not saying I expect Jacksonville to intercept Roethlisberger 5 times on Sunday, but I see no reason not to think that the Steelers offense will struggle to move the ball against this defense. Sure Brown is going to play, but just how effective will he be? If he’s not 100% that’s a big deal. Keep in mind he caught 10 passes for 157 yards in the first meeting and Pittsburgh only managed 3 field goals. I know the run defense for the Jaguars isn’t as good as the secondary and their ability to stop the pass, but they did a pretty good job of limiting Le’Veon Bell in that first meeting. Bell had just 47 yards on 15 attempts. He did catch 10 passes, but for just 46 yards. If they can bottle him up like they did the first time, it’s going to force Roethlisberger to have to throw and chances are he makes another mistake or two. Another big key here that I think is getting overlooked is the Steelers defense wasn’t the same once they lost Ryan Shazier in that Week 13 game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. They just didn’t have the same look, as they no longer had that elite guy in the middle who could use his speed to limit big plays both on the ground and through the air. In the final 5 games the Steelers allowed 127.4 rushing yards/game. In the 11 games prior to that they had allowed 91 yards/game. Jacksonville rushed for 231 yards on 37 attempts (6.2 yards/carry) against the Steeles with Shazier on the field. I just think the Jaguars are going to be able to move the ball here and put up points. With the way the play defense, I think it’s going to be really hard for Pittsburgh to win here in blowout fashion. Give me the Jags +7.5! |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots -13 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show | |
40* TITANS/PATS DIV ROUND ATS KNOCKOUT (Pats -13) Tennessee was gifted a win in KC this past weekend, as the Chiefs took a 21-3 lead into the half and didn't score again. I believe the only reason the Titans were able to get back in that game was the injury (concussion) suffered by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. He's such a big part of their offense and clearly was a problem for Tennessee, as he had 4 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets midway through the 2nd quarter. New England has arguably a better version of Kelce in Gronk, not to mention the best quarterback of all-time in Tom Brady. I think the Patriots are going to carve up this Titans defense and put close to 40 on the board. I also think the New England defense is going to do a much better job of shutting down Henry and not letting Mariota get out in space. Two things the Chiefs struggled with. I just don't see the Tennessee being able to keep pace offensively in this one and won't be able to keep this within 3 scores. Give me the Patriots -13! |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
50* NCAAF NATIONAL CHAMP SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Georgia +5) As much as respect what Saban and Alabama have been able to do, I just think there's too much value here with Georgia catching almost a touchdown in the title game. I personally think these are two very evenly matched teams and think that this should be closer to a pick'em than anything. I just think that the Bulldogs ability to lineup and take away the running game from Alabama is going to be the difference here. Keep in mind that Kirby Smart use to be the defensive coordinator at Alabama and few have a better idea of how to stop Alabama's offensive attack. On the flip side of this, I think the explosiveness and talent of Georgia's running backs are going to be the difference, as I just don't think the Crimson Tide can shut them down for 4 quarters. Give me the Bulldogs +5! |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
40* NFL AFC WILD CARD ATS KNOCKOUT (Bills +9) I'm just not a believer in the Jaguars and simply don't think they should be laying almost double-digits against the Bills. It's rare that a team struggles the way Jacksonville did in their finale two games and they just turn it on in the playoffs. The Jags are also not a team that's built to win via a blowout. They want to run the football and rely on their defense. I just don't trust Bortles in the postseason and think the Bills can get some offense going with their ability to run the football. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Buffalo won this game outright. Give me the Bills +9! |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Chiefs -8) I think we are getting a great price here on the Chiefs laying single digits at home against the Titans. I think the public is still a bit cautious with laying this big a number on Kansas City given their midseason struggles. Not me. This team returned to that elite form that had them start out 5-0 and more than anything they are the far superior team in this game. Tennessee is only in the postseason because of how poor the AFC was as a whole and are a team that has really struggled to play well on the road. The last time they faced a legit team on the road was the Steelers back in November and they got annihilated 40-17. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and it goes to a whole different level when it's a big game like this. The atmosphere in KC is going to be electric and outside of the Steelers the Chiefs have owned teams in this spot. Give me the Chiefs -8! |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -3 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
50* ALABAMA/CLEMSON SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Alabama -3) I'll gladly take my chances here with Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide laying just a field goal in the much anticipated rubber-match. I have nothing but respect for what Dabo Swinney has been able to do at Clemson, but I just think the Tigers are in for a long day against a pissed off Alabama team that is out for revenge for last year's loss in the title game. Sure Clemson has played the Tide tough each of the last two years, but let's not forget who was at quarterback for the Tigers. Deshaun Watson was the only reason they were in either of those games and the only reason they won last year. Yes, Kelly Bryant had a great season, but I think people are getting carried away with thinking that he's going to be able to do the same things that Watson did to this Alabama defense. Bryant's numbers don't even come close to what Watson put up last year. He's thrown for 13 touchdowns and 2,678 yards. Watson going into last year's playoffs had thrown for 3,914 yards with 37 touchdowns. Clemson also had one of the best wide outs in the country in Mike Williams, who had caught 84 pass for 1,171 yards and 10 touchdowns. This year no Tigers wide out has more than 55 catches, 659 yards or 6 TDs. There's also another big difference here that I think is huge. Each of the previous two meetings came in the title game, where each team has just 1-week to prepare for their opponent, unlike the semifinals where you have close to a month. Last year in the semifinals, Alabama held Washington to just 7 points and the year before that they shutout Michigan State. As far as Alabama's offense is concerned, I also think people forget about Lane Kiffin getting the ax the week leading up to last year's game against Clemson. A move that very well could have cost them the game. All the talk leading up to this game has been about the Tigers defensive line and how great they are. That's only going to fuel the Alabama offensive line and I think they play well in this one. Give me the Crimson Tide -3! |
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame +3.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NOTRE DAME/LSU CITRUS BOWL KNOCKOUT (Notre Dame +3.5) I know Notre Dame struggled down the stretch, but I think we are getting too good of a price here on the Irish to pass up. I think we are going to see an extremely motivated Notre Dame take the field, as this team should feel like it has something to prove. The SEC might have two teams in the playoffs, but overall the conference was down this year. I believe there was a substantial gap between Alabama, Georgia and Auburn from the rest of the league. Notre Dame played one of those elite teams and fared really well, losing by just 1-point to Georgia, which I think is a much better version of the Tigers. LSU finished the year strong and had that impressive 27-23 win over Auburn, but that was at home, where they have a massive home field edge. I just don't think they are that great of a team. This is still the same team that lost at home to Troy and by 30 on the road to Mississippi State. LSU scored just 21.8 ppg away from home this year and will be going up against a well-coached Notre Dame defense that has had ample amount of time to prepare for the Tigers attack. It's also worth pointing out there's some disfunction on the offensive side of the ball, as there are rumors out that offensive coordinator Matt Canada is going to be fired after the bowl game. Can't see Canada being completely locked into his job knowing the team is going to let him go. It's no secret that when it comes to the Notre Dame offense their success relies on their ability to run the football. While LSU finished the year 21st against the run, I think they are going to have their hands full against this elite offensive line of the Irish, especially given that they are without three of their top linebackers in Arden Key, Corey Thompson and Donnie Alexander, all of which were in the Top 10 in tackles. They also combined to account for 11 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. I think given how poorly the SEC has looked in bowl games so far and the circumstances for LSU on both sides of the ball, Notre Dame should be the ones favored here. Give me the Irish +3.5! |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals +9 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +9) I just think we are seeing the Seahawks overvalued in this spot, as they are the only team with something to play for. This line basically suggest that Arizona has no business being on the same field with Seattle and I’m just not buying it. The Cardinals would love nothing more than to go into CenturyLink Field and eliminate the Seahawks from postseason play with a win. I expect an all-out effort here from Arizona and they have proven over recent years that they can overcome the big home field edge Seattle has. The Cardinals have won each of the last two times they visited the Seahawks and three of the last four overall at CenturyLInk Field. It’s also worth pointing out that the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. If you watched Seattle’s game last week against the Cowboys, you know that final score doesn’t do justice to how the Seahawks played in that game. Not only did they manage just 136 total yards, but they were outgained by 146 yards. That’s now two straight weeks where Seattle’s offense has been atrocious. In their 42-7 loss to the Rams in Week 15, they only managed 149 yards and were outgained by over 200 yards. Now they go up against an Arizona defense that has quietly been playing very well down the stretch. The Cardinals are allowing under 250 total yards in their last 5 games and a big reason for that has been their ability to shutout the opposing team’s running game. Arizona has allowed just 139 yards on the ground in their last 3 games combined and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards. Seattle has thrown for just 131 yards in their last two games combined and are going to have a hard time moving the ball here. Arizona’s offense is nothing to write home about, but I think they can have some success here against a banged up Seahawks defense that is missing several key starters and has a number of other guys who are either questionable or playing through injuries. Another factor here that I think favors the Cardinals is they know there’s a good chance that head coach Bruce Arians will be coaching his final game with the team. Whether or not he actually does, these players are going to play their hearts out in the chance that it could be his final game. With that said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Arizona win this game outright, but no way I’m passing up on getting over a touchdown. Give me the Cardinals +9! |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State +4 v. Memphis | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 47 m | Show |
50* LIBERTY BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (ISU +4) I know this is a home game for the Tigers, but I still see a ton of value with the Cyclones catching over a field goal. Note that ISU was an excellent road team this season, going 4-2, which included a 38-31 win at Oklahoma and 31-13 win at Texas Tech. It’s also worth noting that their two road losses at West Virginia and at Kansas State both were by 4-points or less. Memphis is one of those teams that get’s a ton of love for their ability to put up points. The Tigers finished 2nd in the country with 47.8 ppg and 4th in total offense at 548.2 ypg. The biggest reason for that is the schedule they played. The best defense in terms of yards allowed per game that they faced was Navy, who ranked 60th and the only reason Navy’s defensive numbers aren’t worse is they run the ball so effectively and limit the number of possessions by controlling the clock. The next best defense they faced was Houston at 88th. Every other team they played was 94th or worse, including 6 teams who ranked in the bottom 10 in the nation. Iowa State finished 45th in the country in total defense, giving up just 368.5 ypg, which is even more impressive given they play in the Big 12. This is the best defense Memphis will have seen all season and it’s not even close. I think it’s going to be extremely difficult for the Tigers to adjust to actually playing a team that knows how to tackle and doesn’t just let receivers run wide open. I also love the fact that all you keep hearing in the hype for this game is how good this Memphis offense is and how will the Cyclones stop them. I think that only adds fuel to the fire for an Iowa State team that has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all season. On the flip side of this, the Tigers have one of the worst defenses in the country. Memphis finished 99th against the run (196.8 ypg) and 123rd against the pass (279.4 ypg). I think they are going to have a tough time here slowing down the Cyclones passing attack, which finished 33rd in the country at 269.5 ypg. At the same time, I think this is also a defense that ISU can pick up big chunks of yards against on the ground behind 1,000 yard rusher David Montgomery, who averaged just under 5 yards/carry. Lastly, I think the Cyclones have a massive edge here in terms of coaching with Matt Campbell, who I think will be headed to an elite program sooner rather than later. Note that in Campbell’s final two bowl games with Toledo, the Rockets absolutely dominated their opponents, winning 63-44 over Arkansas State in the 2014 GoDaddy Bowl as a mere 3-point favorite and 32-17 over No. 24 Temple in the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl as a 2-point dog. As for Memphis head coach Mike Norvell, I think he’s still benefiting largely from the players left over from Justin Fuente’s tenure and note that last year the Tigers lost by 20 as 7-point dogs to Western Kentucky in their bowl game. I’ll take the points as some added insurance, but I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright. Give me ISU +4! |
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12-29-17 | NC State v. Arizona State +7 | 52-31 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
40* SUN BOWL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Arizona St +7) I'll gladly take a touchdown here with the Sun Devils against the Wolfpack in Friday's Sun Bowl. Arizona State is in a unique situation here where they have fired head coach Todd Graham, yet are letting him coach and keep his staff in place for the bowl game. These players absolutely love Graham and are going to do whatever it takes here to get a win here in his final game with the program. I just don't see the same level of motivation for NC State and it stems from star defensive player Bradley Chubb choosing to sit this game out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Chubb was the heart and soul of that defense and was named the college football Defensive Player of the Year. You simply don't lose a player like that and expect good results, as he's one of those guys that made everyone else around him better. I look for the Sun Devils, who are a good offensive team (scored 37 or more in each of their last 4 games) to move the ball at will here and I'll bank on the defense getting enough stops to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but for them to win outright. Give me Arizona State +7! |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State -2 v. Washington State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
50* HOLIDAY BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Michigan State -2) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Spartans laying less than a field goal against the Cougars. Michigan State was one of the most improved teams in the country, as they finished 9-3 after going just 3-9 a year ago. They are going to be excited about getting back to a bowl and they have thrived in postseason play of late under head coach Mark Dantonio. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowls with the only loss coming in that blowout defeat to Alabama in the playoffs a couple season ago where they had no business being in the playoffs. A huge factor here is how this Spartans defense stacks up against the Cougars offensive attack. Washington State is as one-dimensional off a passing offense as you will find. The Cougars had the 2nd ranked passing attack (374.8 ypg) and the 129th rushing attack (71.7 ypg). That passing attack will be up against a Michigan State defense that finished 34th in the country, allowing just 196.5 ypg through the air, while holding opposing quarterbacks to a mere 53.7% completion rate. Making matters even worse for the Cougars is their top two wide outs (Tavares Martin and Isaiah Johnson-Mack) have both been dismissed from the team. If Michigan State can get anything going offensively in this one, they should runaway with this contest. Give me the Spartans -2! |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
40* CAMPING WORLD BOWL ATS SLAUGHTER (Oklahoma St -5.5) I'll take my chances here with the Cowboys winning by at least a touchdown over the Hokies in the Camping World Bowl on Thursday. I have a ton of respect for Justin Fuente, but I don't see how Virginia Tech is going to keep pace with this high-powered Oklahoma State offensive attack. The Cowboys featured a balanced attack. They led the country in passing at 392.3 ypg and were 46th in rushing at 183.3 ypg. The numbers suggest the Hokies are a great defensive team, but I believe a lot of that has to do with the schedule they played. The closest thing they have seen all year to what OK State brings to the table was their opener against West Virginia and the Mountaineers put up 31 points and 592 total yards. I also have major concerns here for Virginia Tech's offense, which will be without their biggest playmaker in wide out Cam Phillips, who led the team with 71 receptions and 964 yards. Next best was Sean Savoy with a mere 39 receptions and 454 yards. Note that this is also a Hokies team that struggled to run the ball, as they averaged just 3.8 yards/carry against teams that allowed an average of 4.4. Give me the Cowboys -5.5! |
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12-27-17 | Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
50* FOSTER FARM BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Purdue +3.5) I was on the Boilermakers a lot this year as I loved their hiring of head coach Jeff Brohm, who got immediate results in his first year. He guided Purdue to a 6-6 record and their first bowl appearance since 2012. Keep in mind this is a team that had won a combined 9 games over their previous 4 seasons. He went a perfect 2-0 in bowl games with WKU and I believe he gives his team a huge edge with all the extra time to prepare. Arizona finished 7-5, but were just 1-3 in their final 4 games with the only win coming against Oregon State. The emergence of Khalil Tate helped spark the 7-win season for Arizona, but it felt like teams started to have a better game-plan for stopping him. Purdue made massive strides on defense this year, allowing just 370.9 ypg and their strength was stopping the run, as they finished 30th in the country, allowing just 133.3 ypg and that's going up against all those great running teams in the Big Ten, as well as non-conference games against Louisville, Ohio and Missouri. I think the Boilermakers will be able to slow down Tate and that Arizona attack and that should allow them create some separation and likely win this game outright. The Wildcats are not a good defensive team, as they finished 89th against the run (187.3 ypg) and 122nd against the pass (278.6 ypg). Look for Purdue to have some explosive plays and I wouldn't be shocked if they won via a blowout. Give me the Boilermakers +3.5! |
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12-26-17 | Kansas State -6.5 v. UCLA | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
50* CACTUS BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (K-State -6.5) I'll take my chances here with the Wildcats winning by at least a touchdown over UCLA in Tuesday's Cactus Bowl. The Bruins have had quite an offseason with the hiring of Chip Kelly to take over for the departed Jim Mora. Kelly brings big time excitement for this program going forward, but he's not taking over until after the bowl game. Offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch is serving as the interim head coach for this game. On top of that, star quarterback Josh Rosen, a potential 1st round NFL draft pick isn't expected to play. I just think UCLA is going to have a really tough time here keeping this one competitive without Rosen. If not for his outstanding play this season, the Bruins wouldn't have been a bowl team. He repeatedly had to put this team on his back because of how poor the defense played. UCLA ranked 123rd out of 130 teams in total defensive, including posting the 129th ranked run defense. K-State might not be the most explosive offense, but they should have no problem here moving the ball and putting up points and while the Wildcats defense wasn't great, they are strong enough up front to take care of business against this Rosen-less UCLA offense. Give me Kansas State -6.5! |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks +5) I think we are seeing a big overreaction here from the Seahawks ugly loss to the Rams and the fact that Dallas is getting back Elliott from suspension. Any time a team gets embarrassed the way Seattle did, they almost always come back with one of their best performances in their next game, especially when it’s a quality team like the Seahawks. The thing you have to keep in mind with the blowout loss to the Rams is that was an absolutely horrible matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and were up against one of the best defensive lines in the league in Aaron Donald. At the same time, they were without one of their best linebackers in K.J. Wright and star linebacker Bobby Wagner basically played on one healthy leg as he took the field with a hamstring injury. Without those two at 100%, they had no chance of slowing down LA’s high-powered offensive attack, which in turn put the offense in horrible spot having to play catchup, which allowed the Rams to come after Wilson. While Wagner wasn’t a factor in the game, he did avoid further injuring his hamstring and should have a much bigger impact this week. As for Wright, there’s a really good chance he returns after failing to pass the concussion protocol last week. With these two healthy this team was really good against the run. Note that both were injured in the game against Jacksonville in Week 14. Prior to that, from Week 9 to Week 13, Seattle held all 5 of their opponents under 100 yards rushing. Holding Dallas under that mark won’t be easy with Elliott back, but I think they can slow him down enough to keep this close and potentially win outright. This is also a much better matchup for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, as Dallas doesn’t have the talent like LA to manhandle Seattle’s offensive line. In fact, I think Wilson could torment this Cowboys defense with his ability to extend plays. The Seahawks should also be able to have some success on the ground, which will open up things even more for Wilson. Seattle is 9-2 ATS under Pete Carroll when coming off 2 straight losses. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 7 or less points at the half. As for Dallas, they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Give me the Seahawks +5! |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (49ers +4.5) Even though the 49ers come in having won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, this is still far from a public team and they certainly aren’t going to be the popular side in this one. That’s because the Jaguars have twice as many wins as San Francisco and are rolling right now. Jacksonville has won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall with the most recent being a 38-point thrashing of the Texans. I think it’s a perfect storm for the 49ers to not only cover at home, but win this game outright. I know there’s a lot still at stake for the Jaguars, but I think this is an ideal letdown spot for them. They just clinched their first playoff appearance in 10-years. That’s something the players certainly celebrated. Keep in mind that even with a loss here they could win the division if the struggling Titans lose at home to red-hot Rams. Even if Tennessee were to pull off the upset, Jacksonville could clinch the division with a win the next week at the Titans. Another thing here that I think is getting overlooked with the Jaguars is that 5 of their 6 wins during their 6-1 stretch have come at home. The lone loss was on the road against a Cardinals team that hasn’t been playing well and are decimated with injuries. Like that game against Arizona, this contest against the 49ers comes a long way from home, which will only make it that much harder on this team. The other big thing for me is that I don’t think you can treat the 49ers like a 5-10 team. They are a perfect 3-0 with Garoppolo at quarterback and he’s looked every bit the part of a franchise quarterback. Garoppolo threw for 293 yards in his first start at Chicago, he then threw for 334 yards at Houston and capped it off last week with 381 yards against the Titans. He’s got this entire franchise in a frenzy with his play. More than anything, he’s given the rest of this team a reason to be excited and that’s a big reason why we have seen this team play so well despite having nothing to play for. Keep in mind that the 49ers had 5 losses early in the year by 3-points or less. You have to believe that had Garoppolo been the starter the entire way in 2017, the perception of this team would be a lot different, as they would likely be sitting at at least 8-6 right now. I think that 49ers team might actually be favored here against the Jags, so it’s easy to see the value with the current line. Give me San Francisco +4.5! |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Titans +7) As much as I like this Rams team, I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line based of LA’s result last week at Seattle. Keep in mind that the Rams caught the Seahawks at the perfect time, as they were without their top two linebacker in K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner, on top of already being without the likes of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman. What can’t be overlooked is just how big a game that was for the Rams in their quest for winning the NFC West title. I think there’s a decent chance we see Los Angeles suffer a letdown here on the road against the Titans, especially given that there’s no pressure for them to win this game. Even with a loss they can secure up the division at home next week against the 49ers. At the same time, there’s a good chance the Seahawks lose at Dallas, which would also do the trick. On the flip side of this, this couldn’t be a much bigger game for the Titans, who simply can’t afford a loss with where they are sitting in the standings. At the same time, you can’t overreact to the fact that Tennessee is coming off back-to-back losses at Arizona and San Francisco, who are two teams out of the playoff picture. The Titans simply are a different team at home than they are on the road. Tennessee is 5-1 at home compared to just 3-5 on the road. The last time the Titans lost on their home field was Week 1 against the Raiders. While the Rams aren’t just a team that relies on their ability to run the football, they are at their best offensively when Gurley is picking up big yards on the ground. I think that makes this a good matchup for Tennessee, as the strength of their defense is stopping the run. The Titans are ranked 5th in the NFL, allowing just 87 rushing yards/game and are even better at home, where they are allowing just 74 yards/game and just 3.4 yards/carry. There’s also a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Rams in this spot. Road favorites who are averaging 27+ points/game on the season are just 20-46 (30%) ATS after a game in which they led by 21 or more points at the half since 1983. That’s a 70% system backing the Titans to at least cover this spread. Give me the Titans +7! |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | 14-37 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 33 m | Show | |
40* IDAHO POTATO BOWL ATS SLAUGHTER (C Michigan +3.5) The fact that Josh Allen is expected to play for Wyoming doesn't deter me the least bit from backing the Chippewas in this one. I think Allen's NFL hype has had the Cowboys drastically overvalued all season. Wyoming won 7 games and the only one that you can even consider as a good win came against Colorado State and a big reason they were able to win that game is it was played in rain and snow where both teams were basically relegated to just running up the middle, which is not the strength of Colorado State, who likes to throw the ball. Central Michigan went 8-4 were arguably the 2nd best team in the MAC behind Toledo. This team tested itself early with non-confernce road games against 3-power 5 teams and it resulted in a 3-4 start to the season. They turned their season around with a 26-23 win at Ohio, which sparked a 5-game winning streak to end the year. Former Michigan quarterback Shane Morris has been a major spark plug in their turnaround and finished the year throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with 26 TD's. This is also a much better defense team that they get credit for and the best example of the talent on that side is when they held Toledo to just 30 points and less than 400 yards of offense. Even when Allen was healthy this Wyoming offense really struggles to move the ball, as they struggled to replace the production lost from running back Brian Hill, who rushed for 1,860 yards and 22 scores a season ago. The leading rusher in 2017 had just 474 yards. The offensive line is also a major weakness and I'm not expecting Allen to be sharp given he's coming off an injury and hasn't played in a game since Nov. 11th. Give me the Chippewas +3.5! |
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12-21-17 | Temple -7 v. Florida International | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 47 h 39 m | Show | |
40* GASPARILLA BOWL ATS KNOCKOUT (Temple -7) I'll take my chances here with the Owls to win here by more than touchdown against FIU. The Golden Panthers are a great story, as Butch Davis has the program headed in the right direction, but I still think this is a team that is lucky to be sitting at 8-wins. Their resume was helped out a lot by getting to play the likes of Rice, Charlotte and UMass, plus a a cupcake FCS opponent. They do have wins over Western Kentucky and Marshall, but those teams are way down this year and we just saw the Hilltoppers lose to Georgia State by 10 in their bowl game. Big thing here for me is I just feel that the Owls are going to have the much easier time moving the ball. Temple was a completely different team down the stretch once Frank Nutile took over at quarterback, averaging 31.8 ppg in his 5 starts. He completed 61% of his attempts and will be facing a FIU defense that allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.4% of their attempts, while ranking 94th against the pass. Temple's defense wasn't up to their standards from previous year, but I love that defensive minded head coach Geoff Collins will have had ample amount of time to prepare for this FIU offense, which I don't think is anything special. The Owls run defense looks bad on paper, as they finished 84th giving up 181.8 ypg, but you to keep in mind they played both Navy and Army and actually on average held opponents below their season average. They were also great against the pass, allowing opposing QB's to complete just 58% of their attempts. Give me the Owls -7! |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +4 v. SMU | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
40* FRISCO BOWL ATS ANNIHILATOR (Louisiana Tech +4) I like the points here with the Bulldogs against SMU in the Frisco Bowl. The biggest thing here is SMU lost head coach Chad Morris to Arkansas and that's a massive blow to this program. Morris is the main reason that the Mustangs are relevant again. His biggest impact came on the offensive side of the ball and his ability to put that unit in a position to excel. Morris not only won't be calling the plays, but a good chunk of staff left with him for the Razorbacks. Graduate assistant GJ Kinne is being given the reigns as the play caller for this bowl game. I just think it's asking a lot for this offense to not miss a beat with a guy who has never called a game. At the same time, I question the entire motivation of this team in this game. As for the Bulldogs, this is a team that we can count on being prepared for this bowl game under head coach Skip Holtz, who has guided LA Tech to 3 straight bowl wins over the last 3 years. One of the impressive things with those wins is how well the offense performed scoring 35, 47 and 48 in those 3 wins. I think they put up another big number here against an awful SMU defense, which was one of the worst in the country this season. The Mustangs ranked 113th against the run (213.3 ypg) and 121st against the pass (273.4 ypg). Give me the Bulldogs +4! |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
40* COWBOYS/RAIDERS SNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Raiders +3) There’s no sugar-coating the Raiders lackluster performance last week in Kansas City. Not only did they not play well, they didn’t seem to have the fire you would expect given it was against one of their hated rivals and with the division on the line. Simply put, it was embarrassing showing by this team. Any time a team plays that poorly, we often see them come back with one of their best efforts and I expect just that against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. As for Dallas, I think people are getting a little too excited with their recent performances. Two weeks ago they beat the Redskins 38-14, but Washington was decimated with injuries. They also scored 2 late touchdowns to make it look a lot worse than it was. Keep in mind that banged up Redskins team followed that up by losing 13-30 at the Chargers. They then escaped with a win over a decimated Giants team, who also had all the off field distractions with their coach getting fired in the week leading up to the game. Again, Dallas made that look like a bigger blowout than it was, as they were tied 10-10 with less than 8 minutes to play and won by 20. I believe taking advantage of two teams who were missing several key players has a lot of people forgetting what this team looked like in the first 3 games without Ezekiel Elliott. For those that forgot, they lost 7-27 at Atlanta, 9-37 at home to the Eagles and 6-28 at home to the Chargers. I think we are going to see Derek Carr and that Raiders offense put up some points, while the Oakland defense feeds off the energy of the home crowd with one of their better showings. Give me the Raiders +3! |
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12-17-17 | Titans v. 49ers -1 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (49ers -1) I was on the 49ers in their win last week against the Texans and will back them again here. Usually when a team is sitting at 3-10 this late in the season, you have big time concerns with them even being motivated to play. That’s not the case with San Francisco, as this team is playing with a whole new sense of confidence under quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. I think 49ers fullback Kyle Juszcyk says it best, “It gets everyone excited. I mean, it feels like a whole new season here. It feels like we started last week. Especially, getting a win, we wish we had more games left. We wish we had a full season to do this thing with him.” Not only has it brought life to the team, but the fan base couldn’t be more excited about the future. I expect a lot of the 49ers faithful to show up for this game and give San Francisco a big home field edge here. At the same time, I’m not the high on this Tennessee team. The Titans haven’t been playing anywhere close to as well as their 6-2 record over their last 8 games would suggest. In fact, they were lucky to win a number of those contests, as 4 of the 6 wins came by 4-points or less with the two blowout wins coming at home against the Colts and Texans. Offensively the Titans seem to be lost and a big reason for that is the poor play of quarterback Marcus Mariota. In his last 4 games he’s thrown just three touchdowns with 8 interceptions. In his last 3 games he’s thrown for a mere 184 yards against the Colts, 150 yards against the Texans and 159 yards against the Cardinals. San Francisco’s overall defensive numbers aren’t great, but in their last 3 games they are allowing just 18 ppg and a mere 258.7 ypg. The defense has been especially good against the run, giving up just 80.7 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. It’s not like the Titans are running the ball all that effectively either, as they have had rushed for fewer than 95 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. It’s also worth noting that Tennessee is a team that has not played well on the road this time of year. They are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. They are also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a losing home record. San Francisco on the other hand is an impressive 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset win as a road dog. Give me the 49ers -1! |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -3 v. Steelers | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 96 h 51 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Patriots -3) I’m going to take the New England Patriots -3 on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers. If history tells us anything, I think it’s that you don’t bet against the Patriots off a loss, especially an ugly showing like they had against the Dolphins in Week 14. New England is 41-19-2 ATS since the start of the 2001 season following a loss and a ridiculous 22-4 SU and 23-3 ATS when in this spot and listed as an underdog or favorite of 3-points or less. They are also 24-7 ATS in their last 31 off a game where they had less than 250 total yards and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after a game where they allowed more than 350 yards. I know it’s not something you see often from a New England team, but I don’t think this team showed up with the right mindset against the Dolphins. Part of it was the lack of respect for Miami and that team and the other was they had this massive game on deck against Pittsburgh. Let’s also not overlook that’s not the first time they have struggled on the road against the Dolphins. One thing New England hasn’t done is struggle to find ways to beat these Steelers. The Patriots have won 4 straight in the series, which includes three wins over the last two seasons. They won 28-21 in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign. Last year they not only beat them 27-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 7, but destroyed them 36-17 later on in the AFC Championship Game. As you can see from the results, Bill Belichick and his staff have done a masterful job of keeping this high-powered Steelers offense in check, while the offense has had their way with the Pittsburgh defense. Another thing that I think is getting overlooked here is just how fortunate the Steelers are to be riding an 8-game winning streak and sitting at 11-2. Let’s just look at their last 6 games. They have trailed by double-digits going into the 4th quarter of each of their last two games against the Ravens and Bengals. Needed overtime to beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers at home 31-28. They trailed the Colts 3-17 in the 2nd half of a 20-17 win and were bailed out by bad coaching in a 10-15 win agains the Lions, as Detroit went for it on 4th down instead of kicking field goals twice in the 2nd half. I just don’t think that’s the sign of a 11-2 team and it’s only a matter of time before their luck runs out. I know the Patriots are banged up right now, but they will be getting back Gronkowski from suspension. Not having him is a big reason why Brady and the offense struggled against the Dolphins. This is also not the same Steelers defense as it was a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh lost in my opinion their most important defensive player in Ryan Shazier in that physical game with Cincinnati. Without him last week they gave up 38 points and over 400 yards to a bad Ravens offense. New England is going to take full advantage of his absence in this one. It’s also worth pointing out that the Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Lastly, favorites who have won 3 of their last 4 against and are playing a team that has won 8 or more games in their last 10 are a dominant 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Pats -3! |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +1.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 49 h 18 m | Show | |
40* CHARGERS/CHIEFS SNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs +1.5) I'll gladly take the points here with Kansas City. It’s amazing how much the perception has changed on these two teams since they last met. Keep in mind that the Chiefs were a 2.5-point road favorite in LA for that first meeting, which means at that time KC would have been close to a 8.5 favorite at home. I’m just not buying it and while I don’t think the Chiefs should be laying more than a touchdown, they should be favored by at least a field goal. I know it’s been a rough go of things for Kansas City since that 5-0 start, as they are just 2-6 over their last 8 games. What gets overlooked is that while they weren’t playing great, they were in just about everyone of those games they lost. More than anything, I think the win over the Raiders was huge for the psyche of this team. That’s also now two straight games in which the offense has looked good. Had it not been for a couple dropped passes deep in Oakland territory, KC would have put up 40 on the Raiders. The week before they had 31 points and nearly 500 yards against the Jets. When this team is clicking offensively they are very tough to beat. I also like the matchup here, as the Chiefs are at their best when they can run the football. The Chargers are 29th in the NFL, giving up 124.8 ypg against the run. The other thing here is the Chiefs’ defense has had Philip Rivers’ number. They picked him off 3 times in the first meeting this season and since Andy Reid and Bob Sutton came to KC, Rivers has a mere 79.3 QB rating in 9 games against the Chiefs, throwing just as many interceptions (11) as he has touchdowns (11). Another huge factor here that I think gives the Chiefs a huge edge is the atmosphere that we will see in Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be electric for this prime time matchup, which is going to feel like a playoff game with what’s at stake. Keep in mind that a win here and the Chiefs would simply need to beat either Miami at home or Denver on the road in their final two games to lock up the AFC West title. Give me Kansas City +1.5! |
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12-16-17 | North Texas v. Troy -6.5 | Top | 30-50 | Win | 100 | 68 h 25 m | Show |
50* NEW ORLEANS BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Troy -6.5) I just think the books are giving North Texas way to much respect here. I thought the same thing in the Mean Green’s last game against FAU in the C-USA title matchup, as they were only an 11-point dog, despite all signs pointing to the Owls winning by 20+. That’s exactly what happened and it could have been a lot worse than the 17-41 final, as FAU led 34-0 in the 2nd half before North Texas finally scored. For me, I just don’t think this North Texas team is anywhere close to as their record would suggest. However, the fact that they have 9-wins and just played in a conference championship game, they get some love. This was a very fortunate team, as they went a perfect 5-0 in games decided by 7-points or less, with 4 of those coming by a field goal or less. Also, when they did play good teams they struggle to make it competitive. They lost to SMU by 22 and Iowa by 17 in non-conference and also lost by 38 to FAU in the regular season. While the die-hards know how good this Troy team is, I don’t know that the general public does. The Trojans weren’t far off from going undefeated. They lost their opener at Boise State 13-24 and were in that game until the very end. The other was a loss at home to a bad South Alabama team, but it was a horrible spot for Troy off that huge win over LSU. Since that loss to the Jaguars, they hasn’t looked back, winning 6 straight to close out the year. North Texas comes in with an offense that looks to be potent on paper, as the Mean Green put up 35.9 ppg (20th) and 467 ypg (18th). A lot of that is who they played, as there’s a lot of bad defenses in C-USA. The best D in the conference was C-USA and they could barely get first downs against them. Not to mention they recently lost one of the best offensive players in running back Jeffery Wilson, who led the team with 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns (also caught 24 passes). Troy has a legit defense. The Trojans allowed just 17.5 ppg (11th) and 340.1 ypg (26th). We know they are the real deal by how well they played outside of league play in their two games against Boise State and LSU. On the flip side of all this, we have a not great but pretty good Troy offense against a bad North Texas defense. The Mean Green were abused on the ground, allowing an average of 208.1 ypg (108th). The Trojans are going to be able to put up points here and I just don’t see North Texas matching it to the point where they can keep this within a touchdown. Give me the Trojans -6.5! |
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12-10-17 | 49ers +3 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 45 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (49ers +3) It can be difficult to bet on games like this one, where you have two teams that are all but out of the playoff picture. I know the Texans are technically still alive, but I don’t think anyone is fooling the players on this team that they have a shot at making the playoffs with a 4-8 record with 4 weeks to play. I think this team went into last week’s game against the Titans knowing that they needed to win that game to keep their slim hopes alive. I believe that’s going to make it really hard for Houston to show up here against a 49ers team that has one of the worst records in the league at 2-10. Not only do I think the Texans are going to be lacking motivation here, but the injury situation just keeps getting worse and worse for this team. In last week’s game against Tennessee, they had 6 players leave the team and not return. They were forced to use running back Andre Ellington as a slot receiver. Tom Savage had to basically tell Ellington where to line up and who to block on each play. At least two of those players, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and wide out Bruce Ellington won’t be back this week, as each has been placed on IR. I got a feeling a lot of the other guys on Houston’s injury report that are listed as questionable won’t end up playing, as it’s just not worth playing hurt when there’s nothing to play for. The big key here is that the 49ers are a team that I think is going to continue to come out and fight each week the rest of the way. There’s a ton of excitement with this team and the potential going forward with Garoppolo as their quarterback. I also think the fact that San Francisco traded for Garoppolo, eliminates any concern of them trying to tank and lose games for a higher draft pick. There was a lot to like with Garoppolo’s first start against the Bears. He completed 26 of 37 attempts for 293 yards. Keep in mind that was against a good Chicago defense, which is sitting 12th in the league against the pass this season, giving up only 221.0 ypg. Now he faces a Houston secondary that is banged up (could be without top corner Jonathan Joseph) and currently ranked 22nd against the pass, giving up 235.8 ypg. Lastly, it’s worth nothing that I still think the 49ers can win and cover here, even if the Texans are still holding on to the hope they can make the playoffs. That’s because this Houston offense simply can’t be trusted with Tom Savage at quarterback. Give me the 49ers +3! |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 15 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers +3) I went against the Vikings last week with Atlanta. A game in which the difference was the Falcons had to settle for 3 field goals, while both of Minnesota’s score were touchdowns. I’m going to go against the Vikings again here, as I just don’t think this Carolina team should be a dog against anyone on their home field. The Panthers 10-point loss at New Orleans doesn’t concern me, as the Saints are as tough as anyone to beat on their home field. I’ll take my chances here with Carolina rebounding at home against the Vikings, as we should see a desperate Panthers team that may need to win out just to make the playoffs. Another big key here is this is not a great spot for Minnesota. The Vikings will be playing their 3rd straight on the road and each of the previous two have been huge games. The first was that Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, which at the time the Lions were still in the hunt for the NFC North lead. Then they had last week’s huge game at the Falcons. I just think it’s asking a lot of this team to go into Carolina and get a win against this team. Note that teams playing 3 straight on the road going back to the start of the 2000 season have won that 3rd road game just 34% of the time and are just 43.5% ATS. It gets even worse if they are playing a good team that’s won more than 60% of their games, as the team playing their 3rd straight on the road have won outright just 24% of the time and covered only 33% of the time. While the Panthers don’t have the offensive fire-power of the Falcons, this team has been playing much better on that side of the ball here of late. They have scored at least 20 in 4 straight and are averaging 33.7 ppg over their last 3. Given the situation for the Vikings, I think we see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense be able to move the ball and unlike Atlanta, finish off drives with touchdowns and not field goals. I also think Minnesota is going to have a really tough time moving the ball here against this Carolina defense. The Panthers are only giving up 19.8 ppg (10th) and are 6th in the NFL in total defense (297.6 ypg). They are also a balanced defense, ranking inside the top 10 against both the run (4th, 88.6 ypg) and the pass (7th, 209 ypg). It’s also worth noting that the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a loss and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after playing a division game last time out. Carolina is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when listed as an underdog and 4-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a total set of 35.5 to 42 points. Give me the Panthers +3! |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy -2.5 | 14-13 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
40* ARMY/NAVY GAME ATS KNOCKOUT (Navy -2.5) It's been 15 years since the last time that Navy came into this game with a chip on their shoulder, as the Midshipmen had won 14 straight prior to last years 17-21 loss to Army. My money is on Navy to get their revenge and avoid losing two straight in the series. While the Black Nights have the better record, the Midshipmen played the tougher schedule. I know Navy closed out the season going just 1-5 in their final 6 games, but it was a brutal stretch that had them play Memphis, Temple, Notre Dame and Houston all on the road, as well as an elite UCF team at home. The big key for me is how Navy was in all of those games. No loss came by more than 10-points, with 3 of those by 8 points or less. A few breaks go their way and I think we would see a 8-3 Navy team be closer to a touchdown favorite here. Give me the Midshipmen -2.5! |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
40* SAINTS/FALCONS TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Falcons +1) The home team has such a big advantage in these Thursday games, but because of how well the Saints have been playing and the Falcons off a home loss to similarly strong team in the Vikings, we are getting exceptional value here with Atlanta at home. Not only is this a tough spot for New Orleans on the road, but you have to wonder just how much this team has left in the tank, as they have had to lay it all on the line the last two weeks against the Rams and Panthers. Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is poised for a breakout game here after a tough go of things last week against an elite Minnesota defense. The Saints are better on defense, but are not on the same level as the Vikings. Give me the Falcons +1! |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Jets | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 18 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWUT (Chiefs -3) It’s hard to put a finger on what’s exactly happened to the Chiefs. Outside of losing Eric Berry in Week 1, they haven’t really been hit that hard with injuries. If anything the key guys have been lost on defense, which doesn’t explain the big decline in production from the offense. The biggest difference is the lack of success the Chiefs have had running the ball. During their 5-0 start, KC averaged 156.2 ypg on the ground. Over their 1-5 stretch they have rushed for a mere 76.3 ypg. Years ago the Jets would be the last team you want to face when you couldn’t run the ball, but that’s not the case now a days. New York comes in ranked 26th in the NFL, giving up 120.4 ypg on the ground. Just last week they gave up 145 on their home field to the Panthers. I think this is a defense the Chiefs can get right against. It’s also not just all the running game, Alex Smith has to play better than he has and again this is a team I think he will play well against. I also think we are getting exceptional value here with Kansas City. What really has everyone down on this team is not only were they struggling to win games, they haven’t been covering. A big reason for that is they were way overvalued coming off that 5-0 start, laying 10-points on the road and more than a touchdown against the Bills. The books have finally adjusted, as the public is off this team. Just a coupe weeks ago I think the Chiefs would have been closer to a touchdown favorite here, but instead we get them laying only a field goal. It would be one thing if the Jets were 3-3 over their last 6 and showed the ability to close out games, but they are 1-5 and you have to wonder just how much more fight this team has left in them. It’s do or die fo the Chiefs in this game. I’ll put my trust here in Andy Reid and his staff putting together a game plan to leave New York with a win. Give me Kansas City -3! |
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12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 43 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Ravens -2.5) I would have to lean here towards taking Baltimore and would strongly consider buying it down to 2.5 or wait it out and see if it doesn’t drop (public is on the Lions). I personally am just not all that impressed with Detroit. They are 3-4 in their last 7 and those 3 wins came against the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, Browns at home and at Chicago. Keep in mind that was Green Bay’s first game without Rodgers and they were outgained and trailed by double-digits to both Cleveland and Chicago. The loss to the Vikings last week isn’t a shocker, but note Detroit had a big edge in that game playing at home on a short week of rest. As for the Ravens, I’m not exactly sold on this team either. The big reason for that is the offense is one of the worst in the league. Defensively they are elite in my eyes, especially now that they are healthy. They had a stretch during the middle of the season where they didn’t play great on that side of the ball, but were missing some key guys. Baltimore is also one of the best in the league at special teams, which can win you a lot of games in this league. I think this is a game where they can get some offense going. The Lions rank 26th in the league, giving up 359.4 ypg and are in the bottom 10 against both the run (24th, 116.2) and the pass (23rd, 243.2 ypg). Hard to trust a team that doesn’t play defense on the road. It’s also worth pointing out that their run defense has really struggled away from home, as they are giving up 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Getting the run game going will do wonders for this Ravens offense. I also give Baltimore an edge when Detroit has the ball. It’s no secret that the Lions’ offense is built around Matthew Stafford and their passing attack. That plays right into the strength of this Ravens stop unit. Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL when it comes to holding opposing quarterbacks in check, as they are allowing just 189.9 ypg through the air. Look for Terrell Suggs and the rest of the Ravens front to live in the Lions backfield. That should be a recipe for at least a couple turnovers to help set up the offense with some short fields. Note that Baltimore leads the NFL with 26 takeaways. They have forced 2 or more in 6 of their 11 games and have 13 in their 5 home games this season. Detroit has committed at least 1 turnover in 7 straight games. I just think there’s too much here pointing in favor of the Ravens and with the short price I think we are getting great value. Give me Baltimore -2.5! |
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12-03-17 | Vikings v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 14-9 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 30 m | Show |
50* NFL *NFC* GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -2.5) This is simply too good of a price to pass up with Atlanta. After struggling to put it all together early on, the Falcons have started to look more and more like the team that steamrolled through the NFC playoffs a season ago. It feels like the turning point in their season was that ugly 7-23 loss at New England. Since that defeat, they have gone 4-1. The only game they lost was at Carolina by 3-points, a game they could have easily won. They had a 10-point lead early and won the yardage and turnover battle. In their last 3 games they have crushed the Cowboys 27-7 at home, went on the road and beat the Seahawks in prime time on Monday Night Football and completed dominated a division rival in the Bucs. The best teams in the NFL rarely lose on their home field and that where I feel we get the value when you have two good teams playing each other. We saw this two weeks ago with the Vikings, when they hosted the Rams, who had won 4 straight. Minnesota was just a 2-point home favorite and won that game 24-7. Similar story last week with the Rams hosting the Saints. New Orleans had won 8 straight and were just a 3-point road dog, but it was LA that won 26-20. While the Vikings win last week at Detroit might be considered a good road win, I just don’t think the Lions are that great of a team. The only other wins for Minnesota away from home are against the Redskins, Bears and Browns (London). Their only loss came at Pittsburgh by a final of 9-26 and keep in mind they were an 8-point dog on the road against the Steelers. I see this Falcons team a lot closer to Pittsburgh than Detroit and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Falcons ran away with this one. Give me Atlanta -2.5! |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State -5 v. Wisconsin | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 53 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Ohio State -5) As much respect as I have for Wisconsin and what they have been able to accomplish this season, my money here is on Ohio State laying less than touchdown. While the Badgers can’t do anything about the schedule they were dealt, there’s no denying the fact that they have had it easy to this point. Their toughest game all season was at home against Michigan and while they won 24-10, it was a lot closer than the final score would indicate. Wisconsin now takes a massive step up in competition this Saturday when they face Ohio State and I just have a hard time seeing them keep this one close. Offensively, the Badgers are a team that relies heavily on their ability to run the football. That’s a problem, because this Buckeyes defense is as good a unit against the run when they are on as you will find. That means in order for Wisconsin to have success offensively, Alex Honibrook and the passing game will need to play a big role. I just don’t see it happening. The Badgers come in ranked 118th out of 130 FBS teams with a mere 182.8 yards/game through the air. So little was asked from Hornibrook that he only attempted more than 20 passes in one conference game. It’s also worth noting that he’s prone to mistakes. Prior to the Minnesota game, where he didn’t throw a pick, he had thrown at least one interception in 8 straight games. I expect him to add at least a couple more picks to his resume against the Buckeyes. As for the Wisconsin defense, there’s no denying that they are strong on that side of the ball. However, I’m not quite convinced they are as good as the numbers would suggest. Over their 9-game Big Ten schedule the best offense they faced was Northwestern, which finished the year ranked a mere 59th in total offense, averaging 405.2 ypg. Six of their nine opponents ranked 85th or worse, with five 100th or worse. Ohio State is unlike anything they have seen, as the Buckeyes come in 4th in the nation averaging 529.8 ypg and can beat you with both the run (13th, 250.3 ypg) and the pass (27th, 279.5 ypg). This reminds me a lot from the 2014 season when these two teams played in the Big Ten title game and Ohio State won 59-0 as a mere 4-point favorite. Keep in mind that was with a 3rd string starting at quarterback. It might not be quite that ugly, but I just don’t think it’s asking a lot of the Buckeyes to win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Ohio State -5! |
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12-02-17 | Fresno State +9.5 v. Boise State | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 23 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF SHARP MONEY ATS ANNIHILATOR (Fresno St +9.5) I would have to take the points here with the Bulldogs against the Broncos. I think this line speaks volumes to how much more a public side Boise State is. Say what you want about last week’s game not meaning anything, Fresno State clearly outplayed the Broncos. Even after losing by a 11-points on the road, there’s those that will be willing to lay the 9-points here with Boise State simply because they trust them more and the game is being played on their home field. I actually think it works in the Bulldogs favor here. Tedford and his staff can continue to use the disrespect hard to motivate their team, something that has fueled this team all season. Not only will they have the bigger chip on their shoulder, but they just might be the better team. Fresno State’s defense is the real deal and has only gotten better as the season has moved on. Keep in mind they finished the season ranked 12th, allowing just 17.3 ppg, despite having to play both Alabama and Washington on the road in non-conference play. One thing the Bulldogs did extremely well in the game last week against Boise State is shutdown the Broncos ground game. Fresno State held Boise to just 107 yards on 31 attempts (3.5 yard/carry). I like their chances of keeping the Broncos run game in check again and it’s a lot easier to play defense when you know the opponent can only beat you with the pass. It wasn’t just the defense that shined, the Bulldogs put up 431 yards on a good Boise State defense. The Broncos simply didn’t have an answer for junior quarterback Marcu McCaryion, who threw for 332 yards and 2 scores, while also adding 27 yards on the ground. His favorite target was KeeSean Johnson, who had 6 catches for 119 yards and both of McCaryion’s touchdown passes. Jamire Jordan was also a factor, catching four passes for 91 yards. The ability to attack this Broncos secondary is not only key to keeping this close enough on the road to cover, but it keeps open the backdoor if Boise happens to get off to a strong start. With all that said, I think Fresno State has an excellent shot at winning this game and simply feel that getting over a touchdown is a gift you can’t pass up on. Give me the Bulldogs +9.5! |
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12-02-17 | TCU +7.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 42 h 58 m | Show |
50* NCAAF BIG 12 CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (TCU +7.5) I just feel like this is too big a number for TCU to be catching in a game they are more than capable of winning outright. Keep in mind that in that first meeting in Norman, Oklahoma closed as just a 5.5-point favorite. Based off that line, the Sooners would have only been around a 3-point favorite at that time on a neutral field. There’s a couple of reasons the line has jumped so much from then to now. One is the outcome of the first game, where Oklahoma was in complete control from the start and won by 18. The other is the books know that based on that first outcome and how well the Sooners have been playing, the public is going to be on Oklahoma here. I personally don’t think the line should be closer to what it would have been a few weeks back with the Sooners around a 2.5 to 3-point favorite. With that said, there’s simply too much value here with TCU to pass up. I know the game was basically over at the half in the first meeting, but I think there’s a lot to be said about how the 2nd half played out. TCU’s defense, which didn’t play up to their potential in the 1st half, held Oklahoma scoreless over the final two quarters. I believe that’s something they can build on going into the rematch and let’s not forget this Horned Frogs defense has been one of the best in the country this season. The other big key here is where this game is being played. While I expect a pretty even amount of fans from both sides, it’s a whole different story playing a team on a neutral field than it is on their home field. Oklahoma has only lost 8 times over the last 11 years on their home field, so for them to win at home in the first meeting shouldn’t have been a huge surprise. Lastly, I like the fact that all the pressure is on the Sooners in this game. Even with a win here the Horned Frogs likely don’t have a path to the playoffs. Oklahoma on the other hand is likely in with a win. So not only is TCU going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to get revenge, they should be the more relaxed of the two teams in this matchup. Like I said earlier, I think the Horned Frogs have an excellent shot at wining this game and a great chance of keeping it closer than expected. Give me TCU +7.5! |
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12-02-17 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic -11 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 41 h 36 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (FAU -11) I don’t typically love taking the favorite in these same season revenge games, but I just think there’s more than enough here to feel pretty confident with backing the Owls. Note that this line has already jumped quite a bit, as FAU opened as a 8.5-point favorite. I wouldn’t be surprised if ended up closer to 14 by the time kickoff comes around. A lot can change over a little time in college football and just because FAU dominated North Texas a little over a month ago, it doesn’t mean it will happen again. However, I think there’s a good chance this one isn’t close. The Owls simply did whatever they wanted offensively against the Mean Green, racking up a ridiculous 804 yards and 37 first downs. They scored on their first 11 possessions, which is absurd. Chances are they won’t be as dominant, but they don’t need to win here by two touchdowns. The biggest thing for me is the injuries that North Texas has suffered leading up this rematch. The biggest being the loss of running back Jeffery Wilson, who leads the team with 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns. On top of that, they could also be without wide out Jalen Guyton, who is questionable with a concussion. Guyton leads the team with 758 receiving yards and 9 touchdown catches. Even if Guyton is able to play, the loss of Wilson is going to make it tough for the Mean Green to keep pace. Backup Nic Smith did have 178 yards last week against Rice, but Rice’s defense is horrible. Smith got 8 carries in the first meeting with FAU and only had 25 yards (3.1 yards/carry). One of the ways that North Texas could have kept this one closer than the first meeting is to establish the run and try to control the time of possession to limit the chances for FAU’s offense. I just don’t see them being able to do that with Wilson out o the picture. The Mean Green have no choice here but to try and go score for score with the Owls and I just don’t see them being able to keep pace over 4 quarters. It’s also worth noting that North Texas has a history of not doing well against the spread in games that are expected to be high-scoring, as they are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 with a total of 63 or more. They also have had a hard time keeping it close on the road against high-powered offenses like FAU, as they are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams who average 425 or more yards/game and have lost these contests on average by 25.1 ppg. Give me the Owls -11! |
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12-02-17 | UL-Monroe +27 v. Florida State | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (ULM +27) This play comes down to the fact that I don't think Florida State has any interest in playing this game. What's been an absolute miserable season for a team that came in thinking they were legit national title contenders got even worse when head coach Jimbo Fisher decided it was time to pack up and head to the SEC, as he just accepted the head coaching job at Texas A&M. I know they are just 1-win from being bowl eligible, but fighting for a crappy bowl game isn't something programs like FSU get all that excited about. In fact, I'm not convinced this team wants this season to last any longer than it has and if that's the case, they not only won't cover this huge spread, they could lose the game outright. I just feel that the line here doesn't factor into account the lack of motivation for Florida State and is set more based on what you would expect if this was the middle of the season. It's also worth noting that while the Seminoles could struggle to find an excuse to get pumped up for this one, the Warhawks are going to show up to play. ULM is just 4-7 and this is their last game no matter what. Even though FSU is down, this is still a potentially program changing win for the Warhawks. I think they treat this like their bowl game and at worst give the Seminoles a legit scare here. Give me ULM +27! |
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12-02-17 | Memphis +7.5 v. Central Florida | 55-62 | Win | 100 | 41 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Memphis +7.5) I was actually hoping to see a similar line here as we saw last week with South Florida catching double-digits. I gladly backed the Bulls, who were in a great position to win that game outright. I know that UCF beat Memphis in the regular season by 27 and outgained the Tigers by more than 200 yards, but that game really spiraled out of control for Memphis early. The Tigers really shot themselves in the foot, as they turned it over 4 times and went for it twice on 4th down in UCF territory and came up short. A couple breaks Memphis’ way and that would have been a lot closer. You also have to keep in mind that was just the 3rd game of the season for the Knights. They were still flying way under the radar and I don’t think Memphis had any idea just how good they were. Not only do the Tigers have that experience to fall back on, but there’s a heck of a lot more tape on UCF for the coaching staff to use to their advantage. As we saw in last week’s game against South Florida, the Knights defense can be exposed and this Memphis offense is no joke. With all the off the field talk about head coach Scott Frost leaving town and the Tigers playing with a chip on their shoulder here with revenge, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Memphis win outright. One last thing that also has me overlooking the first result is that these two teams played 4 common opponents this year. Both teams went 4-0 in those 4 games, but it was Memphis that had the more impressive scoring margin. The Tigers outscored those 4 teams by an average of 30 ppg and outgained them by 163.3 ypg, while UCF only won by an average of 21 ppg and outgained them by 138 ypg. Give me Memphis +7.5! |
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11-30-17 | Redskins -1.5 v. Cowboys | 14-38 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NFL REDSKINS/COWOBYS TNF NO BRAINER (Redskins -1.5) I just don’t trust this Dallas team right now. Not only is the offense missing their biggest weapon in running back Ezekiel Elliot, they have numerous players ailing along the offensive line. Left tackle Tyron Smith was able to return last week, but he’s still dealing with both groin and back problems. Right tackle La’el Collins figures to play, but also isn’t practicing because of back problems. On top of all that, second year quarterback Dak Prescott is not playing well. He completed 20 of 27 attempts against LA, but only finished with 179 yards. He also threw 2 more interceptions, giving him 5 in the 3 games since Elliott’s suspension started. He’s also not thrown a single touchdown pass during this stretch. It’s not just the offense that is struggling, the defense has allowed at least 27 points during the 3-game slide. A big part of that is they are having to be on the field a lot more. They have also been without All-Pro linebacker Sean Lee the last two games and he's the one guy this defense couldn't afford to lose. During the Cowboys 3-game slide since Elliott’s suspension they have been outscored 92-22 and have failed to score at least 10 points in any game. It’s also worth pointing out that Dallas has been outgained by at least 100 yards in all 3 contests. I know Washington has a laundry list of injuries that they are dealing with, but this team has shown the ability to fight through them. More than anything, I trust Kirk Cousins and this Redskins offense to be able to score and I see no reason why the defense won’t be able to hold their own with how poorly Dallas’ offense is performing without Elliott. Give me the Redskins -1.5! |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers +7 | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL BIG MONEY UNDERDOG SHOCKER (49ers +7) I'll gladly back San Francisco at home coming off their bye week against the Seahawks. There's no denying the 49ers are in rebuilding mode, but this is also a team that's much better than their 1-9 record, as they have 5 losses by 3 points or less and have been in most of their games. Seattle clearly isn't right after losing at home in a prime time game against the Falcons on Monday Night Football, yet they are getting treated here like an elite team. The thing is the Seahawks have lost a number of key players to injury, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I look for the 49ers to do enough here offensively to keep this close and potentially even win this game outright. Give me San Francisco +7! |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Panthers -5) I just don't see Carolina failing to leave New York with a win. The Panthers are quietly sitting at 7-3 and right in the thick of things in the NFC, but aren't a team that's getting talked about a lot. Not only is this team flying under the radar, but I think they are only getting better as the season goes along. They come in having won 3 straight and simply can't take their foot off the gas with how well the Saints and Falcons are playing inside their division. The Jets were more competitive than anyone expected early on this season, but are just 1-4 in their last 5 and I think they have a hard time bringing that same energy they showed early over the final few weeks of the season. Biggest thing here is I just don't see New York being able to get anything going offensively against this top notch Carolina defense. Give me the Panthers -5! |
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11-26-17 | Titans v. Colts +3.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Colts +3.5) I think the Titans are one of the most overrated teams in the league and that showed in their last game, when they lost 17-40 at Pittsburgh. The Colts on the other hand are a team I feel is trending in the right direction and are simply a lot better than they get credit for. The biggest key here is Tennessee is not a good road team and that's evident by their awful 7-21 ATS record over their last 28 games. Titans have also had a hard time playing well against bad teams, as they are just 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 games against a team with a losing record. Colts are the exact opposite, having gone 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with winning road record. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 off of their bye week. Give me the Colts +3.5! |
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11-26-17 | Dolphins +17 v. Patriots | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL BIG MONEY ATS NO BRAINER (Dolphins +17) As well as the Patriots are playing right now, I can't pass up on catching 3-scores with Miami against their division rivals. The Dolphins have been a hard team to figure out, as one week they look like a playoff contender and the next look like the worst team in the league. My money is on them to at least play well enough to keep this within the number, as there's no team they would rather beat than the Patriots. I also like the fact that Matt Moore is getting the start here instead of Jay Cutler. I just haven't been impressed with Cutler at all this season and I actually think the players have more confidence in Moore giving them a shot to win. I think he gets the offense going and the defense does just enough here to keep the Patriots from running away with this. Give me the Dolphins +17! |
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11-25-17 | Notre Dame -2.5 v. Stanford | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -2.5) I believe the value here is with the Irish laying less than a field goal against the Cardinal. Notre Dame’s playoff hopes took a huge hit with their loss to Miami. I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see them struggle against Navy last week, in fact, I was all over the Midshipmen in that spot. The key here that even though it’s a bit of a long-shot, Notre Dame is not out of the playoff picture just yet and I believe that’s the key to backing the Irish in this contest. If Notre Dame was completely out of it, there’s no chance I would take them on the road against a good Stanford team, but with a shot I think they not only win, but win comfortably. I know the Cardinal just recently knocked off Washington at home, which was a great win, I just don’t think this team is as good as people think. That win over the Huskies is their only win against a top tier opponent. One thing that stands out to me is that both of these teams played USC and the results were the complete opposite. Stanford lost 24-42 to the Trojans, while Notre Dame dominated USC 49-14. The two teams that were able to beat the Irish this season were Georgia and Miami, who are two of the best defenses in the country when it comes to stopping the run. Simply put, if Notre Dame can’t run the ball, the offense has a hard time moving the ball, as Brandon Wimbush just isn’t that polished of a passer. This is not your usual dominant Stanford defense. In fact, it’s one of the worst in recent memory. One of their biggest struggles has been stopping the run, as they are giving up 171.7 ypg and 4.7 yards/carry. The last time that Stanford allowed more than 170 rushing yards/game was in 2006 when they finished 1-11. I look for Wimbush and star running back Josh Adams to make life miserable for the Notre Dame defense. The other big key here is that Stanford’s offense is all about their ability to get Bryce Love going, but he’s just not been the same player since he suffered an ankle injury in the win over Oregon back in the middle of October. He might break one big run, but overall I look for the Irish to key on him and force Stanford to try and move the ball through the air. At the same time, I think Notre Dame still has an excellent shot at winning here even if Love has a big game, as I just don’t think their defense will be able to keep the Irish in check. Give me Notre Dame -2.5! |
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11-25-17 | Arizona v. Arizona State +2 | 30-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Arizona St +2) This is a much improved Arizona State team from last year and I’ve backed them numerous times over the last couple months with a lot of success. They continued to be undervalued by the books and are now 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Revenge is a big time motivator at the college level and there’s no doubt that the Sun devils have had their eyes set on revenge against in-state rival Arizona after last year’s embarrassing 21-point loss. I look for Arizona State to not only win here, but to win convincingly. One of the reasons the Wildcats get a ton of love from the books, is everyone is drawn to the big numbers of Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 1,325 yards and 11 touchdowns. Tate is certainly fun to watch, but he was held in check last week by the Ducks, as he had just 32 yards on 14 carries. Look for Arizona State to try and use the same game plan that Oregon used to slow down Tate in this one. Even if Tate has a big game, I still like the Sun Devils chances here to get the cover. That’s because Arizona State’s offense should be able to score at will here against a Arizona defense that is dealing with a number of injuries. The Wildcats lost 3 different defensive lineman to injury in last week’s game against Oregon and have several other defensive players either questionable or out for the year. Arizona does have a 3-2 record on the road this season, but could very easily be 1-4, as they have a 3-point win at Colorado and mere 1-point victory at Cal. The only legit win came against an awful UTEP team, while the other two were blowout losses to USC and Oregon. Adding to this, is the fact that this will be the Wildcats second straight on the road and 3rd road game in their last 4 overall. That’s not an easy thing to overcome this late in the season. Arizona is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games in the 2nd half of the season and a mere 2-13 ATS in their last 15 vs a team like Arizona State, who is averaging more than 32 minutes of possession and 21+ first downs per game. The Sun Devils on the other hand are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games played on Saturday and 34-18 ATS in their last 52 at home against a conference opponent. Not only is the home team 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings in this series, but they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS. Give me Arizona State +2! |
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11-25-17 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota +18 | 31-0 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Minnesota +18) All those questions everyone had about whether or not Wisconsin was good enough to make the playoffs have quieted, as the Badgers have rolled off 3 straight impressive wins over Indiana (45-17), Iowa (38-14) and Michigan (24-10). Now everyone is all over Wisconsin, as the perception here is they will make easy work of the Golden Gophers. This Minnesota team hasn't performed like some were expecting in P.J. Fleck's first season, but they aren't going to go down without a fight, especially with the Gophers needing 1 more win to become bowl eligible. I look for Minnesota to come out like this is their Super Bowl and while it might not be enough to get the win, I think they put a huge scare into the Badgers and keep this well within the number. This being at home is huge for the Gophers, as I expect a rowdy crowd for this one and there's no question that Minnesota has played much better at home this year. The other big key here is that the Gophers have the defense to keep Wisconsin from running up the score. Minnesota is 28th in the country, giving up just 337 yards/game. That drops down to 322 ypg when they are at home. They also give up just 18.2 ppg at home and are holding teams to just 3.9 yards/carry against the run. I think this is a very similar defense to the one of Purdue, maybe even slightly better and the Boilermakers lost 9-17 on the road to Wisconsin. Wouldn't shock me if the Badgers struggled to score more than the spread. Give me the Gophers +18! |
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11-25-17 | Georgia v. Georgia Tech +12 | 38-7 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Georgia Tech +12) I'll gladly take 12 points with the Yellow Jackets at home against in-state rival Georgia. I think we are seeing a big overreaction here to how these two teams fared a week ago. The Bulldogs defeated Kentucky 42-13 and covered as a 24-point favorite. That was a lot closer game late than the final score would indicate, as it was only 13-21 midway through the 3rd quarter. Georgia Tech on the other hand lost 20-43 at Duke as a 7-point favorite. That loss looks bad, but that was a tough spot for the Yellow Jackets off a big win at home as a dog against Virginia Tech and knowing they had this game against their rival on deck. I just don't think Georgia Tech had the right mindset going into that game and it shows with the fact that they allowed a season-high 319 rushing yards to a pretty sub-par Blue Devils offense. I expect to see a completely different mentality and focus for the Yellow Jackets in this one. The one thing we learned with Georgia in their loss to Auburn, is that if you can take away their running game the offense has a hard time moving the ball. I don't know that they can do what Auburn did to this Bulldogs offense, but I think they can hold their own. The Yellow Jackets come in ranked 29th in the country, giving up just 343 yards/game and have held their opponents to an average of just 95 yards and 3.1 yards/carry at home, where they are a perfect 5-0 SU on the season. I also think the triple-option has some success against the Georgia defense, allowing them to keep this close and potentially pull off the upset. Give me the Yellow Jackets +12! |
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11-24-17 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia +7.5 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
50* NCAAF RIVALRY GAME OF THE MONTH (Virginia +7.5) Bronco Mendenhall has done a tremendous job turning around this Virginia program, as he's already got them bowl eligible after they won just 2-games his first year on the job. He can really put a positive note on this season with a win over their rivals, as Virginia Tech has won the Commonwealth Cup 13 straight times. The Hokies just haven't been the same in year two under Justin Fuente and have struggled down the stretch. Virginia Tech is just 1-2 over their last 3 and have failed to cover 3 straight. While the Hokies have put up strong defensive numbers, I think they have a tough time containing Virginia's high-powered passing attack led by senior Kurt Benkert, who has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards with a 25-8 TD-INT ratio. The other huge factor here is that this game is being played at Scott Stadium under the lights on ESPN. The atmosphere in Charlottesville will be electric as the Cavaliers believe they got a shot at the upset. Win or lose, I see this one coming right down to the wire. Give me Virginia +7.5! |
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11-24-17 | South Florida +10 v. Central Florida | 42-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (USF +10) It's almost as if people forgot about how good this South Florida team is. Not to take anything away from UCF, but this is just too big of a number for them to be laying against the best team they have faced all season. Not only do I think the Bulls are capable of keeping this close enough to cover, but I think there's a good chance to win the game outright and spoil the Knights quest for a perfect season. For the most part this season UCF has simply been able to just outscore their opponent, but that won't be so easy against the Bulls. USF not only has a high-powered offense that can go score for score with the Knights, but they are also a lot better defensively than they get credit for. The Bulls are only giving up 19.9 ppg and I think they are better than that, as they haven't exactly had to give their best effort in a lot of their games because of how lopsided the matchup was. UCF is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Bulls on the other hand have stepped up against the better competition going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me South Florida +10! |
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11-24-17 | Navy v. Houston -4.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Houston -4.5) I'll lay the points here with the Cougars at home against the Midshipmen. I just think this is a tough spot for Navy after that big game against Notre Dame, where they had the No. 8 team in the country on the ropes. I know they have a week off after this game against Houston, but I also think it will be hard for the Midshipmen to not look ahead to their huge rivalry game against Army, which means a little more than normal after last year’s loss to the Black Knights. As for Houston, I look for a big bounce back effort here after laying an egg on the road against Tulane last week. The Cougars will also be out for revenge, plus have a little extra motivation here with this being their final home game of the season (senior day). The big key here is I believe Houston has the talent up front to really cause problems for Navy’s triple-option attack and it all starts with star sophomore defensive lineman Ed Oliver, who has helped guide the Cougars to the 39th ranked run defense, giving up just 142.7 yards/game. Note that last week they held Tulane, who is currently 22nd in the country at 237 rushing yards/game to just 166 yards on 47 attempts (only 3.5 yards/carry). If they can keep the Midshipmen from running at will, it’s going to keep Navy from controlling the clock and let Houston’s offense pick apart a weak Navy defense. If the Cougars can get their offense going early, this could turn into a bit of a blowout, as the Midshipmen aren’t built to play from behind. Give me Houston -4.5! |
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11-23-17 | Giants +7.5 v. Redskins | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
40* NFL LATE NIGHT THANKSGIVING ATS NO BRAINER (Giants +7.5) I was impressed with how New York responded after being called out by their head coach in the week leading up to their game against Kansas City. They played one of their best games of the season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I believe we will see this team carry over that effort here against a division rival. As for Washington, I think it’s asking a lot of this team to pull away for a comfortable win here. While they aren’t officially out of the playoff race, that loss to the Saints really made things difficult for the Redskins. The Falcons hold the final Wild Card spot in the NFC at 6-4 and there’s 4 teams between Atlanta and Washington. The big concern here for me with the Redskins is they are once again dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Starting center Spencer Long is on IR and backup Chase Roullier just fractured a bone in his hand this past Sunday. Good chance Roulier doesn’t play and if he doesn’t backup guard/tackle Tony Bergstrom will be forced into action at center. The team will also be without starting left guard Shawn Laovao and left tackle Trent Williams will be a go on short rest with a bum knee. Needless to say the offensive line is a complete mess right now and it’s just hard to win games, especially by more than a touchdown when dealing with these kinds of injuries up front. Look for the Giants defensive front to live in Washington's backfield. That’s not the end of the injuries for the Redskins offense. Wide out Terrelle Pryor and running back Chris Thompson both just landed on IR. While Pryor has been a disappointment after signing as a free agent, Thompson is tied for the team lead with 39 receptions and his 510 yards receiving are second only to Vernon Davis with 527. Thompson is also the top backup at running back with Rob Kelly on IR. Same Perine has taken over as the lead back, but he’s questionable, as is tight end Jordan Reed. I know the offense of the Giants is nothing to get excited about, but the Redskins defense has been reeling. Washington has allowed 30+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. If they struggle at all to find motivation after that crushing loss to the Saints, New York could be in store for one of their best offensive games of the season. At the same time, I don't think they have to be great offensively to keep this within a touchdown, as I don't see this turning into a shootout. Give me the Giants +7.5! |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -14.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Mississippi St -14.5) I would typically look to back the underdog in a rivalry game like we have here in what is known as the Egg Bowl, but I just don't see how Ole Miss keeps this game close. Sure, they haven't had anything to play because of a self-imposed postseason ban. I'm not saying that the Rebels won't show up for this one. That's not a doubt. I just don't think they are good enough to keep it close. You don't think this team wanted to beat Alabama when they played them? The Crimson Tide destroyed them 66-3. They also had a 21 point loss to Auburn and 16 points defeat at home to LSU. Those are the only 3 ranked teams they played and they weren't competitive in any of those. Mississippi State is just a step below the elite of the SEC, which in my opinion is Alabama, Auburn and Georgia. Right there with LSU. The Bulldogs had some struggles on the road against Georgia and Auburn early in the year, but those came on the road and this is a much better team at this point in the season, which is evident of their upset win over Alabama a few weeks back. While they did just fail to cover as a near two-touchdown favorite last week at Arkansas, they just didn't have the same fire coming off that loss against the Crimson Tide. They won't be lacking it against Ole Miss. Offensively the Bulldogs should have a field day, as the Rebels have had all kinds of problems stopping the run and slowing down dual-threat quarterbacks. Ole Miss does have some talent on offense, but this is a top tier Mississippi State defense that is going to feed off the home crowd under the lights in a prime time game. I think they can hold the Rebels to 21 or less, while scoring close to 40. Give me the Bulldogs -14.5! |
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11-23-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Lions | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NFL THANKSGIVING BANKROLL FEAST (Vikings -2.5) I'll take the bait here and back Minnesota laying less than a field goal against the Lions. The Vikings are going to be out for revenge here. Not only for their earlier 7-14 loss to Detroit at home, but they have lost 3 straight overall in the series, including a crushing 13-16 loss at Detroit last Thanksgiving. Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points. Despite the fact that Minnesota sits at 8-2, I just don’t feel this team gets the respect they deserve from the books. We saw it last week when they were less than a field goal favorite at home against the Rams. I think we are seeing them undervalued again, as I’m just not buying this Lions team. Sure Detroit is 6-4, but a lot of those wins have come against bad teams, especially during their 3-game winning streak. A stretch in which they have played Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, as well as the Browns and Bears. Note that they had to rally from 10-points down against both Cleveland and Chicago. It’s great they were able to pull out the wins, but I think it also speaks to just how this isn’t an elite team. The Lions were able to hand Minnesota a loss on their home field earlier this season, but that was about as bad as the Vikings have played. They turned it over 3 times, including two early giveaways to start the 2nd half that turned into 10-points for Detroit. The Minnesota defense held the Lions to just 251 yards and I see now reason why the Vikings won’t be able to shutdown Stafford and company again this time around. Another key here is that Minnesota’s offense has improved dramatically since the first month of the season, as Case Keenum is playing as well any QB in the league right now. At the same time, the Lions defense has regressed. Not only did they give up 24 points to two horrible offenses in the Browns and Bears, they allowed each of those teams to rush for over 200 yards. Vikings are a ridiculous 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games overall. They are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games played inside a dome. Give me Minnesota -2.5! |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks -2.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
40* NFL FALCONS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Seahawks -2.5) My money is on the Seahawks laying less than a field goal at home against the Falcons. I just don’t think Seattle is getting near enough respect here in a prime time home game, especially this late in the season and with how much they want this game given what happened in that ugly playoff loss to the Falcons a year ago. Year in and year out under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks always seem to be playing their best football in the 2nd half. I know they lost a huge piece to their defense in Richard Sherman, but they still have two of the best safeties in the game in Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. I also think backup Jeremy Lane is capable of holding his own. Lane also has had a few extra days to get use to his new role, as Seattle gets a big advantage here playing with 3 extra days of rest after the Thursday night game. At the same time, I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with Atlanta off that big win over the Cowboys. Dallas is simply not the same team without Ezekiel Elliott and there would have been major concerns had they not won convincingly. I just think that win has people thinking this team is back, but in reality they are 2-4 in their last 5 and more likely to revert back to their old ways. It’s also not like Atlanta’s offense lit the world on fire against the Cowboys and the offense hasn’t looked the same all season. Even without Sherman this is a top notch Seahawks defense that is only giving up 18.3 ppg. I also don’t think the offense gets enough respect, especially at home. Seattle is averaging an impressive 28.2 ppg and 426 ypg at home this season. Look for Russell Wilson and the offense to steal the show in this prime time affair. Give me the Seahawks -2.5! |
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11-19-17 | Ravens -2 v. Packers | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 89 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ravens -2) I believe the fact that Green Bay was able to pull out a victory in Chicago has provided some hope that the Packers aren’t completely done for without Rodgers. I’m not buying it, as I don’t think any player means more to their team than Rodgers. Let’s also not overlook the win came against the Bears, a team they know very well with them being in the same division, plus Chicago is a bad team. I know the Ravens haven’t been playing great here of late, but this is a great spot to back them, as Baltimore is coming off of their bye. A big time advantage this late in the season. It’s also a spot in which they have excelled, as they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games off their bye week. I also love this matchup for the Ravens, who are a top tier defensive team. Baltimore is 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 311 yards/game. While the run defense hasn’t been great, Green Bay isn’t a strong running team and could be without their two best options out of the backfield. Aaron Jones had really come on strong for the Packers, but he’s out 3-6 weeks with an MCL injury and backup Ty Montgomery is questionable with a rib injury. That’s going to put too much pressure on Brett Hundley, who simply isn’t very good. The big concern with Baltimore is their offense and rightfully so. The Ravens rank 30th out of 32 teams at just 286.6 ypg. However, this Packers defense is getting exposed now that they are being asked to do a lot more with the offense struggling to score. In Green Bay’s 3 games without Rodgers, the defense has allowed 408.3 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. While the win over the Bears certainly helped keep this line from being more, I also think Green Bay is getting more respect than it deserves on their home field. Keep in mind we already have seen them lose badly at home in two games without Rodgers, falling 17-26 to the Saints and 17-30 to the Lions and that game against Detroit was on Monday Night Football, when you would expect the home field edge to be at it’s strongest. Give me the Ravens -2! |
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11-19-17 | Redskins +8 v. Saints | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Redskins +8) As hard as it is to go against a red-hot team like the Saints, I would have to lean towards taking the points here with Washington. Not to take anything away from New Orleans and their 7-game winning streak, as it’s no easy task to win that many in a row, regardless of who you are playing, but it’s certainly been a favorable stretch for them. In just their last 4 games they have faced Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, the Bears and Bucs at home and a clearly dysfunctional Bills team that is doing everything they can to ruin this season. The latest move being benching starting QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of Nathan Peterman. They also have a home win over the Lions and win against the Dolphins in London where Miami didn’t show up to play. The best win of the bunch is a victory at Carolina way back in Week 3. That looks great now with how the Panthers are playing, but keep in mind that Cam Newton was playing at less than 100% early in the year. Now I’m not saying the Saints are going to lose this game at home, I just think it’s asking a lot for them to win here by more than a touchdown against a good but not great Washington team. Despite a rash of injuries, including a stretch where they were missing 4 starting offensive linemen, the Redskins have showed a lot of fight and this feels like a game they need to have to keep their playoff hopes alive. We also have a strong system that backs this being a good time to fade the Saints. Favorites in the NFL that are averaging 27 or more points/game are just 9-27 (25%) ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games since 1983. Give me the Redskins +8! |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 89 h 41 m | Show |
50* NFL SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Vikings -2) The Vikings simply aren’t getting enough respect on their home field. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach, Minnesota has gone 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS at home. One of things I like about this Vikings team is you rarely hear anyone talking about them, despite the fact that they are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL at 7-2. LA has that same 7-2 record and they are getting all kinds of love. Mainly because no one saw this coming. Either way, I think it’s going to have the Vikings playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they look to send a message to the rest of the league that they are for real. This is also a huge game in terms of a potential first round bye in the playoffs. The biggest thing for me in this matchup is I believe the Vikings have the talent defensively to slow down this high-powered Rams attack. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the NFL against the run (81.3 ypg) and are 12th against the pass (213.2 ypg). No one enjoys shutting down a great offense more than Zimmer, who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the game today. Since he took over at Minnesota, the Vikings are 11-2 ATS in 13 games against excellent passing teams, who average 260 or more yards/game through the air. They are also 8-1 ATS in 9 games against teams that average 375 or more total yards/game. Another factor here that I think favors Minnesota is the Rams have kind of been on cruise control here of late. Each of their 4 games during their winning streak have been decided by 10 or more points. They haven’t been in a closely contest battle in more than a month. The Vikings on the other hand are team that’s got countless close wins under their resume over the last few seasons and my money is on them to find a way to win this game at home. Give me Minnesota -2! |