40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (FAU +21) 

I just feel the Sooners are getting way too much respect given what they lost at quarterback. I know they have former Texas A&M transfer, Kyler Murray, ready to take over, but it’s ludicrous to think he’s going to put up anywhere close to the number of the Heisman winner. Mayfield completed a ridiculous 70.5% of his 404 pass attempts last year, throwing for more than 4,600 yards with a ridiculous 43-6 TD-INT ratio.

What also gets lost is how having a player as talented as Mayfield at quarterback makes everyone else around him look better. I’m not saying the Sooners offense won’t score a ton of points, but they aren’t going to be as prolific on that side of the ball. Let’s also not overlook this FAU defense, which has 10 starters back from a unit that only gave up 22.7 ppg and 390 ypg last year.

Oklahoma also lost some big pieces on the defensive side of the ball and you can bet that Kiffin will have the Owls offense well prepared for what they will see from the Sooners defense. I know FAU has just 5 starters back on offense and has to replace their starting QB, but they have two Power 5 transfers competing for the open job. One of those is former Oklahoma recruit Chris Robison, who Kiffin has compared to Johnny Manziel.

FAU also has one of the best running backs in the country in Devin Singletary, who is coming off a season in which he rushed for 1,920 yards and 32 touchdowns. While he’s unlikely to put up video game like numbers against a Power 5 defense, keep in mind he had 68 yards and a score on 17 carries last year against a stout Wisconsin run defense (only gave up 98 ypg rushing).

I also have some concerns here with Oklahoma not giving the Owls their full attention with a home game against UCLA on deck and a big revenge game the following week against Iowa State (beat them on their home field last year). As for FAU, they are going to give the Sooners every thing they got, as this is their only chance to show how good they are against a Power 5 team. I don’t think an outright upset is out of the question, but either way I’m confident they keep it within the number. Give me FAU +21! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Colorado -7.5) 

I'm really high on Colorado this season. I think they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the Pac-12. At the same time, I'm way down on Colorado State and recommended a play on Hawaii in "Week Zero" as a big dog and wasn’t the least bit surprised to see them lose outright. Simply put, I don’t think the spread is high enough. I would be shocked if Colorado didn’t win here by double-digits.

It’s interesting to note that this is a near identical scheduling scenario to last year, when Colorado State hosted Oregon State in “Week Zero” and had to turn around and play Colorado the following Friday. The Buffaloes ended up winning that contest 17-3. It continued a dominant stretch for Colorado in this in-state rivalry, as they have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, including all 3 since Mike Bobo replaced Jim McElwain at Colorado State.

I also don’t think people are factoring in just how bad a loss that was to Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors aren’t expected to be bowl eligible at season end and that’s a team they dominated a season ago by 30-points on the road.

While Colorado only has 4 starters back on offense from last year, there actually in a lot better shape than people realize. Not only do they have a talented quarterback in Montez, but they added in Virginia Tech transfer Travon McMillian at running back, which will ease the loss of Phillip Lindsay, who left as the school’s #2 all-time rusher. They also have a couple of Power 5 transfers in Juwaan Winfree (Maryland) and Tony Brown (Texas Tech) at wide receiver.

Keep in mind that while Colorado’s defense took a big step back last year, they only gave up a mere 3 points to a talented Colorado State offense that went on to average 33.4 ppg. All signs point to the Buffaloes being greatly improved on that side of the ball and I think we could end up seeing a similar outcome to when these two teams met in 2016, which Colorado won 44-7 as a mere 8-point favorite. Give me the Buffaloes -7.5!

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Tulane +6) 

The public will undoubtedly be drawn to playing Wake Forest. They see an ACC team that won 8 games last year going up against a team that has been to one bowl since 2002. They will gladly lay the points, as to them this line will likely seem to small.

I personally think there’s a ton of value with Tulane, as I believe they have a legit shot at winning this game outright. I think there’s going to be a buzz around this Green Wave team in New Orleans and I expect a rowdy home crowd for Tulane. They went 4-2 at home last year, including an upset win of Houston as a 9-point dog and a mere 28-34 loss to #16 USF.

I’m not sure everyone is aware that Tulane is running the option offense, but that’s definitely a factor here. Wake Forest only returns has to replace 4 starters in their front 7 on defense. Keep in mind they did have some troubles against the run last year, giving up 4.4 yards/carry and 186 yards/game. The Green Wave have 4 of their 5 starters back on the offensive line and a senior quarterback in Banks that knows how to operate the option offense.

I know Tulane’s defense loses a lot, but they have really taken some nice strides since Fritz took over. I think they will be better than expected and will feed off the home crowd in this one.

Another huge factor in favor of the Green Wave being able to hold their own is projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton is suspended for the first 3 games of the season. Hilton was the clear-cut favorite to win the job, as he had previously beat out Wolford.

Talented backup running back Arkeem Byrd has also been lost for the year to a torn ACL and starting wide out Scotty Washington is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Washington's loss can't be overlooked, as the Demon Deacons already had to replace two guys who combined for more than 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns. 

I think we could really see the Demon Deacons offense struggle to get going and if Tulane doesn’t fumble (rarely throw), they will have a good shot at winning the turnover battle. I believe the smart play here is to grab the points. Give me the Green Wave +6! 

50* PATS/EAGLES SUPER BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Pats -4) 

As much respect as I have for the Eagles, I don’t know how you go against the Patriots in this scenario. On one side you have arguably both the greatest head coach (Bill Belichick) and quarterback (Tom Brady) to ever play the game.

On the other side you have a head coach (Doug Pederson) that is in just his second year as a head coach with a backup quarterback (Foles)  filling in for a MVP candidate (Wentz).

I know the Patriots historically haven’t blown teams out in the Super Bowl, but it’s not asking a lot for New England to win here by 6 or more.

I think the experience factor for New England and having been here and handled all that comes with playing in a Super Bowl is a huge edge. I also think it’s a massive advantage any time you give Belichick two weeks to prepare for opponent.

The public is on the Eagles and the points here, especially having just watched the Patriots struggle against the Jags and Philadelphia completely dominating the Vikings. More times than not the public loses in these high-profile games. 

Couple things that you can’t overlook from those outcomes. The Patriots went up against the best defense in the NFL and Brady wasn’t 100%. Not to mention he played the majority of the game without his top weapon in Gronkowski.

As for the Eagles, I think they benefitted not only from playing at home in the underdog role, but I also think the Vikings suffered a major letdown after their miracle win over the Saints the week before.

Give Foles credit. He played a great game against the Vikings, but let’s not forget how much this offense struggled to move the ball in the Division Round against the Falcons, where they only managed 15 points. I’m not saying he won’t play well in the Super Bowl, I just wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick devised a game-plan that made life miserable for Foles and the Eagles. Give me the Patriots -4

50* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR (Jags +9) 

I think the Jaguars not only have an excellent shot at keeping this game within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they went into New England and won the game outright. I just think that Jacksonville is the ideal opponent to take down the Pats. 

The teams that Brady and the Patriots have struggled against during their ridiculous run over the last decade are teams that can put pressure on the quarterback without having to blitz. In fact, in the postseason, New England is just 4-4 when facing top tier pressure teams, compared to 6-2 against teams that don't put pressure on the quarterback. Pats average almost 11 ppg less and Brady's TD-INT ration is just 15-12 compared to 20-5. 

Not only do the Jags have the talent on the defensive line to put pressure on Brady without blitzing, they have the talent and speed at linebacker to cover the running backs out of the backfield and playmakers in the secondary who can at least give some resistance to Gronk. 

I know there's some concerns with Jacksonville's offense and how they will score, but I think they can do enough here to keep it close in what I feel will be a low-scoring game. Give me the Jaguars +9! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jags +7.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Jacksonville and the points on Sunday. I think this Jaguars defense is not only good enough to keep this game close, but good enough to propel Jacksonville to the AFC Championship Game.

It’s not very often you see a team catching more than a touchdown against an opponent they beat by 21-points early on in the season. That’s just shows you how much the public loves this Steelers team and how little respect and trust the public has for these Jaguars. Most are just going to chalk up that win in the regular season as a fluke and say they got lucky with the turnovers.

I’m not saying I expect Jacksonville to intercept Roethlisberger 5 times on Sunday, but I see no reason not to think that the Steelers offense will struggle to move the ball against this defense. Sure Brown is going to play, but just how effective will he be? If he’s not 100% that’s a big deal. Keep in mind he caught 10 passes for 157 yards in the first meeting and Pittsburgh only managed 3 field goals.

I know the run defense for the Jaguars isn’t as good as the secondary and their ability to stop the pass, but they did a pretty good job of limiting Le’Veon Bell in that first meeting. Bell had just 47 yards on 15 attempts. He did catch 10 passes, but for just 46 yards. If they can bottle him up like they did the first time, it’s going to force Roethlisberger to have to throw and chances are he makes another mistake or two.

Another big key here that I think is getting overlooked is the Steelers defense wasn’t the same once they lost Ryan Shazier in that Week 13 game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. They just didn’t have the same look, as they no longer had that elite guy in the middle who could use his speed to limit big plays both on the ground and through the air. In the final 5 games the Steelers allowed 127.4 rushing yards/game. In the 11 games prior to that they had allowed 91 yards/game.

Jacksonville rushed for 231 yards on 37 attempts (6.2 yards/carry) against the Steeles with Shazier on the field. I just think the Jaguars are going to be able to move the ball here and put up points. With the way the play defense, I think it’s going to be really hard for Pittsburgh to win here in blowout fashion. Give me the Jags +7.5!

40* TITANS/PATS DIV ROUND ATS KNOCKOUT (Pats -13) 

Tennessee was gifted a win in KC this past weekend, as the Chiefs took a 21-3 lead into the half and didn't score again. I believe the only reason the Titans were able to get back in that game was the injury (concussion) suffered by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. He's such a big part of their offense and clearly was a problem for Tennessee, as he had 4 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets midway through the 2nd quarter. 

New England has arguably a better version of Kelce in Gronk, not to mention the best quarterback of all-time in Tom Brady. I think the Patriots are going to carve up this Titans defense and put close to 40 on the board. I also think the New England defense is going to do a much better job of shutting down Henry and not letting Mariota get out in space. Two things the Chiefs struggled with. I just don't see the Tennessee being able to keep pace offensively in this one and won't be able to keep this within 3 scores. Give me the Patriots -13! 

50* NCAAF NATIONAL CHAMP SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Georgia +5) 

As much as respect what Saban and Alabama have been able to do, I just think there's too much value here with Georgia catching almost a touchdown in the title game. I personally think these are two very evenly matched teams and think that this should be closer to a pick'em than anything. I just think that the Bulldogs ability to lineup and take away the running game from Alabama is going to be the difference here. Keep in mind that Kirby Smart use to be the defensive coordinator at Alabama and few have a better idea of how to stop Alabama's offensive attack. On the flip side of this, I think the explosiveness and talent of Georgia's running backs are going to be the difference, as I just don't think the Crimson Tide can shut them down for 4 quarters. Give me the Bulldogs +5! 

40* NFL AFC WILD CARD ATS KNOCKOUT (Bills +9) 

I'm just not a believer in the Jaguars and simply don't think they should be laying almost double-digits against the Bills. It's rare that a team struggles the way Jacksonville did in their finale two games and they just turn it on in the playoffs. The Jags are also not a team that's built to win via a blowout. They want to run the football and rely on their defense. I just don't trust Bortles in the postseason and think the Bills can get some offense going with their ability to run the football. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Buffalo won this game outright. Give me the Bills +9! 

40* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Chiefs -8) 

I think we are getting a great price here on the Chiefs laying single digits at home against the Titans. I think the public is still a bit cautious with laying this big a number on Kansas City given their midseason struggles. Not me. This team returned to that elite form that had them start out 5-0 and more than anything they are the far superior team in this game. Tennessee is only in the postseason because of how poor the AFC was as a whole and are a team that has really struggled to play well on the road. The last time they faced a legit team on the road was the Steelers back in November and they got annihilated 40-17. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and it goes to a whole different level when it's a big game like this. The atmosphere in KC is going to be electric and outside of the Steelers the Chiefs have owned teams in this spot. Give me the Chiefs -8! 

50* ALABAMA/CLEMSON SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Alabama -3)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide laying just a field goal in the much anticipated rubber-match. I have nothing but respect for what Dabo Swinney has been able to do at Clemson, but I just think the Tigers are in for a long day against a pissed off Alabama team that is out for revenge for last year's loss in the title game. 

Sure Clemson has played the Tide tough each of the last two years, but let's not forget who was at quarterback for the Tigers. Deshaun Watson was the only reason they were in either of those games and the only reason they won last year. Yes, Kelly Bryant had a great season, but I think people are getting carried away with thinking that he's going to be able to do the same things that Watson did to this Alabama defense.

Bryant's numbers don't even come close to what Watson put up last year. He's thrown for 13 touchdowns and 2,678 yards. Watson going into last year's playoffs had thrown for 3,914 yards with 37 touchdowns. Clemson also had one of the best wide outs in the country in Mike Williams, who had caught 84 pass for 1,171 yards and 10 touchdowns. This year no Tigers wide out has more than 55 catches, 659 yards or 6 TDs. 

There's also another big difference here that I think is huge. Each of the previous two meetings came in the title game, where each team has just 1-week to prepare for their opponent, unlike the semifinals where you have close to a month. Last year in the semifinals, Alabama held Washington to just 7 points and the year before that they shutout Michigan State. 

As far as Alabama's offense is concerned, I also think people forget about Lane Kiffin getting the ax the week leading up to last year's game against Clemson. A move that very well could have cost them the game. All the talk leading up to this game has been about the Tigers defensive line and how great they are. That's only going to fuel the Alabama offensive line and I think they play well in this one. Give me the Crimson Tide -3! 

40* NOTRE DAME/LSU CITRUS BOWL KNOCKOUT (Notre Dame +3.5)

I know Notre Dame struggled down the stretch, but I think we are getting too good of a price here on the Irish to pass up. I think we are going to see an extremely motivated Notre Dame take the field, as this team should feel like it has something to prove. 

The SEC might have two teams in the playoffs, but overall the conference was down this year. I believe there was a substantial gap between Alabama, Georgia and Auburn from the rest of the league. Notre Dame played one of those elite teams and fared really well, losing by just 1-point to Georgia, which I think is a much better version of the Tigers. 

LSU finished the year strong and had that impressive 27-23 win over Auburn, but that was at home, where they have a massive home field edge. I just don't think they are that great of a team. This is still the same team that lost at home to Troy and by 30 on the road to Mississippi State. 

LSU scored just 21.8 ppg away from home this year and will be going up against a well-coached Notre Dame defense that has had ample amount of time to prepare for the Tigers attack. It's also worth pointing out there's some disfunction on the offensive side of the ball, as there are rumors out that offensive coordinator Matt Canada is going to be fired after the bowl game. Can't see Canada being completely locked into his job knowing the team is going to let him go. 

It's no secret that when it comes to the Notre Dame offense their success relies on their ability to run the football. While LSU finished the year 21st against the run, I think they are going to have their hands full against this elite offensive line of the Irish, especially given that they are without three of their top linebackers in Arden Key, Corey Thompson and Donnie Alexander, all of which were in the Top 10 in tackles. They also combined to account for 11 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. 

I think given how poorly the SEC has looked in bowl games so far and the circumstances for LSU on both sides of the ball, Notre Dame should be the ones favored here. Give me the Irish +3.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +9) 

I just think we are seeing the Seahawks overvalued in this spot, as they are the only team with something to play for. This line basically suggest that Arizona has no business being on the same field with Seattle and I’m just not buying it.

The Cardinals would love nothing more than to go into CenturyLink Field and eliminate the Seahawks from postseason play with a win. I expect an all-out effort here from Arizona and they have proven over recent years that they can overcome the big home field edge Seattle has. The Cardinals have won each of the last two times they visited the Seahawks and three of the last four overall at CenturyLInk Field. It’s also worth pointing out that the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series.

If you watched Seattle’s game last week against the Cowboys, you know that final score doesn’t do justice to how the Seahawks played in that game. Not only did they manage just 136 total yards, but they were outgained by 146 yards. That’s now two straight weeks where Seattle’s offense has been atrocious. In their 42-7 loss to the Rams in Week 15, they only managed 149 yards and were outgained by over 200 yards.

Now they go up against an Arizona defense that has quietly been playing very well down the stretch. The Cardinals are allowing under 250 total yards in their last 5 games and a big reason for that has been their ability to shutout the opposing team’s running game. Arizona has allowed just 139 yards on the ground in their last 3 games combined and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards. Seattle has thrown for just 131 yards in their last two games combined and are going to have a hard time moving the ball here.

Arizona’s offense is nothing to write home about, but I think they can have some success here against a banged up Seahawks defense that is missing several key starters and has a number of other guys who are either questionable or playing through injuries.

Another factor here that I think favors the Cardinals is they know there’s a good chance that head coach Bruce Arians will be coaching his final game with the team. Whether or not he actually does, these players are going to play their hearts out in the chance that it could be his final game. With that said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Arizona win this game outright, but no way I’m passing up on getting over a touchdown. Give me the Cardinals +9!

50* LIBERTY BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (ISU +4) 

I know this is a home game for the Tigers, but I still see a ton of value with the Cyclones catching over a field goal. Note that ISU was an excellent road team this season, going 4-2, which included a 38-31 win at Oklahoma and 31-13 win at Texas Tech. It’s also worth noting that their two road losses at West Virginia and at Kansas State both were by 4-points or less. 

Memphis is one of those teams that get’s a ton of love for their ability to put up points. The Tigers finished 2nd in the country with 47.8 ppg and 4th in total offense at 548.2 ypg.  The biggest reason for that is the schedule they played.

The best defense in terms of yards allowed per game that they faced was Navy, who ranked 60th and the only reason Navy’s defensive numbers aren’t worse is they run the ball so effectively and limit the number of possessions by controlling the clock. The next best defense they faced was Houston at 88th. Every other team they played was 94th or worse, including 6 teams who ranked in the bottom 10 in the nation.  

Iowa State finished 45th in the country in total defense, giving up just 368.5 ypg, which is even more impressive given they play in the Big 12. This is the best defense Memphis will have seen all season and it’s not even close. I think it’s going to be extremely difficult for the Tigers to adjust to actually playing a team that knows how to tackle and doesn’t just let receivers run wide open. I also love the fact that all you keep hearing in the hype for this game is how good this Memphis offense is and how will the Cyclones stop them. I think that only adds fuel to the fire for an Iowa State team that has been playing with a chip on their shoulder all season.  

On the flip side of this, the Tigers have one of the worst defenses in the country. Memphis finished 99th against the run (196.8 ypg) and 123rd against the pass (279.4 ypg). I think they are going to have a tough time here slowing down the Cyclones passing attack, which finished 33rd in the country at 269.5 ypg. At the same time, I think this is also a defense that ISU can pick up big chunks of yards against on the ground behind 1,000 yard rusher David Montgomery, who averaged just under 5 yards/carry. 

Lastly, I think the Cyclones have a massive edge here in terms of coaching with Matt Campbell, who I think will be headed to an elite program sooner rather than later. Note that in Campbell’s final two bowl games with Toledo, the Rockets absolutely dominated their opponents, winning 63-44 over Arkansas State in the 2014 GoDaddy Bowl as a mere 3-point favorite and 32-17 over No. 24 Temple in the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl as a 2-point dog.

As for Memphis head coach Mike Norvell, I think he’s still benefiting largely from the players left over from Justin Fuente’s tenure and note that last year the Tigers lost by 20 as 7-point dogs to Western Kentucky in their bowl game.  I’ll take the points as some added insurance, but I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright. Give me ISU +4! 

40* SUN BOWL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Arizona St +7) 

I'll gladly take a touchdown here with the Sun Devils against the Wolfpack in Friday's Sun Bowl. Arizona State is in a unique situation here where they have fired head coach Todd Graham, yet are letting him coach and keep his staff in place for the bowl game. These players absolutely love Graham and are going to do whatever it takes here to get a win here in his final game with the program. 

I just don't see the same level of motivation for NC State and it stems from star defensive player Bradley Chubb choosing to sit this game out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Chubb was the heart and soul of that defense and was named the college football Defensive Player of the Year. You simply don't lose a player like that and expect good results, as he's one of those guys that made everyone else around him better. I look for the Sun Devils, who are a good offensive team (scored 37 or more in each of their last 4 games) to move the ball at will here and I'll bank on the defense getting enough stops to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but for them to win outright. Give me Arizona State +7! 

50* HOLIDAY BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Michigan State -2) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Spartans laying less than a field goal against the Cougars. Michigan State was one of the most improved teams in the country, as they finished 9-3 after going just 3-9 a year ago. They are going to be excited about getting back to a bowl and they have thrived in postseason play of late under head coach Mark Dantonio. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowls with the only loss coming in that blowout defeat to Alabama in the playoffs a couple season ago where they had no business being in the playoffs. 

A huge factor here is how this Spartans defense stacks up against the Cougars offensive attack. Washington State is as one-dimensional off a passing offense as you will find. The Cougars had the 2nd ranked passing attack (374.8 ypg) and the 129th rushing attack (71.7 ypg). That passing attack will be up against a Michigan State defense that finished 34th in the country, allowing just 196.5 ypg through the air, while holding opposing quarterbacks to a mere 53.7% completion rate. Making matters even worse for the Cougars is their top two wide outs (Tavares Martin and Isaiah Johnson-Mack) have both been dismissed from the team. If Michigan State can get anything going offensively in this one, they should runaway with this contest. Give me the Spartans -2! 

40* CAMPING WORLD BOWL ATS SLAUGHTER (Oklahoma St -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cowboys winning by at least a touchdown over the Hokies in the Camping World Bowl on Thursday. I have a ton of respect for Justin Fuente, but I don't see how Virginia Tech is going to keep pace with this high-powered Oklahoma State offensive attack. The Cowboys featured a balanced attack. They led the country in passing at 392.3 ypg and were 46th in rushing at 183.3 ypg. The numbers suggest the Hokies are a great defensive team, but I believe a lot of that has to do with the schedule they played. The closest thing they have seen all year to what OK State brings to the table was their opener against West Virginia and the Mountaineers put up 31 points and 592 total yards. I also have major concerns here for Virginia Tech's offense, which will be without their biggest playmaker in wide out Cam Phillips, who led the team with 71 receptions and 964 yards. Next best was Sean Savoy with a mere 39 receptions and 454 yards. Note that this is also a Hokies team that struggled to run the ball, as they averaged just 3.8 yards/carry against teams that allowed an average of 4.4. Give me the Cowboys -5.5! 

50* FOSTER FARM BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Purdue +3.5) 

I was on the Boilermakers a lot this year as I loved their hiring of head coach Jeff Brohm, who got immediate results in his first year. He guided Purdue to a 6-6 record and their first bowl appearance since 2012. Keep in mind this is a team that had won a combined 9 games over their previous 4 seasons. He went a perfect 2-0 in bowl games with WKU and I believe he gives his team a huge edge with all the extra time to prepare. 

Arizona finished 7-5, but were just 1-3 in their final 4 games with the only win coming against Oregon State. The emergence of Khalil Tate helped spark the 7-win season for Arizona, but it felt like teams started to have a better game-plan for stopping him. Purdue made massive strides on defense this year, allowing just 370.9 ypg and their strength was stopping the run, as they finished 30th in the country, allowing just 133.3 ypg and that's going up against all those great running teams in the Big Ten, as well as non-conference games against Louisville, Ohio and Missouri. 

I think the Boilermakers will be able to slow down Tate and that Arizona attack and that should allow them create some separation and likely win this game outright. The Wildcats are not a good defensive team, as they finished 89th against the run (187.3 ypg) and 122nd against the pass (278.6 ypg). Look for Purdue to have some explosive plays and I wouldn't be shocked if they won via a blowout. Give me the Boilermakers +3.5! 

50* CACTUS BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (K-State -6.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Wildcats winning by at least a touchdown over UCLA in Tuesday's Cactus Bowl. The Bruins have had quite an offseason with the hiring of Chip Kelly to take over for the departed Jim Mora. Kelly brings big time excitement for this program going forward, but he's not taking over until after the bowl game. Offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch is serving as the interim head coach for this game. On top of that, star quarterback Josh Rosen, a potential 1st round NFL draft pick isn't expected to play. 

I just think UCLA is going to have a really tough time here keeping this one competitive without Rosen. If not for his outstanding play this season, the Bruins wouldn't have been a bowl team. He repeatedly had to put this team on his back because of how poor the defense played. UCLA ranked 123rd out of 130 teams in total defensive, including posting the 129th ranked run defense. K-State might not be the most explosive offense, but they should have no problem here moving the ball and putting up points and while the Wildcats defense wasn't great, they are strong enough up front to take care of business against this Rosen-less UCLA offense. Give me Kansas State -6.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks +5)

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here from the Seahawks ugly loss to the Rams and the fact that Dallas is getting back Elliott from suspension. Any time a team gets embarrassed the way Seattle did, they almost always come back with one of their best performances in their next game, especially when it’s a quality team like the Seahawks.

The thing you have to keep in mind with the blowout loss to the Rams is that was an absolutely horrible matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and were up against one of the best defensive lines in the league in Aaron Donald. At the same time, they were without one of their best linebackers in K.J. Wright and star linebacker Bobby Wagner basically played on one healthy leg as he took the field with a hamstring injury. Without those two at 100%, they had no chance of slowing down LA’s high-powered offensive attack, which in turn put the offense in horrible spot having to play catchup, which allowed the Rams to come after Wilson.

While Wagner wasn’t a factor in the game, he did avoid further injuring his hamstring and should have a much bigger impact this week. As for Wright, there’s a really good chance he returns after failing to pass the concussion protocol last week. With these two healthy this team was really good against the run. Note that both were injured in the game against Jacksonville in Week 14. Prior to that, from Week 9 to Week 13, Seattle held all 5 of their opponents under 100 yards rushing. Holding Dallas under that mark won’t be easy with Elliott back, but I think they can slow him down enough to keep this close and potentially win outright.

This is also a much better matchup for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, as Dallas doesn’t have the talent like LA to manhandle Seattle’s offensive line. In fact, I think Wilson could torment this Cowboys defense with his ability to extend plays. The Seahawks should also be able to have some success on the ground, which will open up things even more for Wilson.

Seattle is 9-2 ATS under Pete Carroll when coming off 2 straight losses. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 7 or less points at the half. As for Dallas, they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Give me the Seahawks +5!

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (49ers +4.5) 

Even though the 49ers come in having won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, this is still far from a public team and they certainly aren’t going to be the popular side in this one. That’s because the Jaguars have twice as many wins as San Francisco and are rolling right now. Jacksonville has won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall with the most recent being a 38-point thrashing of the Texans.

I think it’s a perfect storm for the 49ers to not only cover at home, but win this game outright. I know there’s a lot still at stake for the Jaguars, but I think this is an ideal letdown spot for them. They just clinched their first playoff appearance in 10-years. That’s something the players certainly celebrated. Keep in mind that even with a loss here they could win the division if the struggling Titans lose at home to red-hot Rams. Even if Tennessee were to pull off the upset, Jacksonville could clinch the division with a win the next week at the Titans.

Another thing here that I think is getting overlooked with the Jaguars is that 5 of their 6 wins during their 6-1 stretch have come at home. The lone loss was on the road against a Cardinals team that hasn’t been playing well and are decimated with injuries. Like that game against Arizona, this contest against the 49ers comes a long way from home, which will only make it that much harder on this team.

The other big thing for me is that I don’t think you can treat the 49ers like a 5-10 team. They are a perfect 3-0 with Garoppolo at quarterback and he’s looked every bit the part of a franchise quarterback. Garoppolo threw for 293 yards in his first start at Chicago, he then threw for 334 yards at Houston and capped it off last week with 381 yards against the Titans. He’s got this entire franchise in a frenzy with his play. More than anything, he’s given the rest of this team a reason to be excited and that’s a big reason why we have seen this team play so well despite having nothing to play for.

Keep in mind that the 49ers had 5 losses early in the year by 3-points or less. You have to believe that had Garoppolo been the starter the entire way in 2017, the perception of this team would be a lot different, as they would likely be sitting at at least 8-6 right now. I think that 49ers team might actually be favored here against the Jags, so it’s easy to see the value with the current line. Give me San Francisco +4.5!

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Titans +7)

As much as I like this Rams team, I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line based of LA’s result last week at Seattle. Keep in mind that the Rams caught the Seahawks at the perfect time, as they were without their top two linebacker in K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner, on top of already being without the likes of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman.

What can’t be overlooked is just how big a game that was for the Rams in their quest for winning the NFC West title. I think there’s a decent chance we see Los Angeles suffer a letdown here on the road against the Titans, especially given that there’s no pressure for them to win this game. Even with a loss they can secure up the division at home next week against the 49ers. At the same time, there’s a good chance the Seahawks lose at Dallas, which would also do the trick.

On the flip side of this, this couldn’t be a much bigger game for the Titans, who simply can’t afford a loss with where they are sitting in the standings. At the same time, you can’t overreact to the fact that Tennessee is coming off back-to-back losses at Arizona and San Francisco, who are two teams out of the playoff picture. The Titans simply are a different team at home than they are on the road. Tennessee is 5-1 at home compared to just 3-5 on the road. The last time the Titans lost on their home field was Week 1 against the Raiders.

While the Rams aren’t just a team that relies on their ability to run the football, they are at their best offensively when Gurley is picking up big yards on the ground. I think that makes this a good matchup for Tennessee, as the strength of their defense is stopping the run. The Titans are ranked 5th in the NFL, allowing just 87 rushing yards/game and are even better at home, where they are allowing just 74 yards/game and just 3.4 yards/carry.

There’s also a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Rams in this spot. Road favorites who are averaging 27+ points/game on the season are just 20-46 (30%) ATS after a game in which they led by 21 or more points at the half since 1983. That’s a 70% system backing the Titans to at least cover this spread. Give me the Titans +7! 

40* IDAHO POTATO BOWL ATS SLAUGHTER (C Michigan +3.5)

The fact that Josh Allen is expected to play for Wyoming doesn't deter me the least bit from backing the Chippewas in this one. I think Allen's NFL hype has had the Cowboys drastically overvalued all season. Wyoming won 7 games and the only one that you can even consider as a good win came against Colorado State and a big reason they were able to win that game is it was played in rain and snow where both teams were basically relegated to just running up the middle, which is not the strength of Colorado State, who likes to throw the ball.

Central Michigan went 8-4 were arguably the 2nd best team in the MAC behind Toledo. This team tested itself early with non-confernce road games against 3-power 5 teams and it resulted in a 3-4 start to the season. They turned their season around with a 26-23 win at Ohio, which sparked a 5-game winning streak to end the year. Former Michigan quarterback Shane Morris has been a major spark plug in their turnaround and finished the year throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with 26 TD's. This is also a much better defense team that they get credit for and the best example of the talent on that side is when they held Toledo to just 30 points and less than 400 yards of offense. 

Even when Allen was healthy this Wyoming offense really struggles to move the ball, as they struggled to replace the production lost from running back Brian Hill, who rushed for 1,860 yards and 22 scores a season ago. The leading rusher in 2017 had just 474 yards. The offensive line is also a major weakness and I'm not expecting Allen to be sharp given he's coming off an injury and hasn't played in a game since Nov. 11th. Give me the Chippewas +3.5! 

40* GASPARILLA BOWL ATS KNOCKOUT (Temple -7)

I'll take my chances here with the Owls to win here by more than touchdown against FIU. The Golden Panthers are a great story, as Butch Davis has the program headed in the right direction, but I still think this is a team that is lucky to be sitting at 8-wins. Their resume was helped out a lot by getting to play the likes of Rice, Charlotte and UMass, plus a a cupcake FCS opponent. They do have wins over Western Kentucky and Marshall, but those teams are way down this year and we just saw the Hilltoppers lose to Georgia State by 10 in their bowl game. 

Big thing here for me is I just feel that the Owls are going to have the much easier time moving the ball. Temple was a completely different team down the stretch once Frank Nutile took over at quarterback, averaging 31.8 ppg in his 5 starts. He completed 61% of his attempts and will be facing a FIU defense that allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.4% of their attempts, while ranking 94th against the pass. 

Temple's defense wasn't up to their standards from previous year, but I love that defensive minded head coach Geoff Collins will have had ample amount of time to prepare for this FIU offense, which I don't think is anything special. The Owls run defense looks bad on paper, as they finished 84th giving up 181.8 ypg, but you to keep in mind they played both Navy and Army and actually on average held opponents below their season average. They were also great against the pass, allowing opposing QB's to complete just 58% of their attempts. Give me the Owls -7! 

40* FRISCO BOWL ATS ANNIHILATOR (Louisiana Tech +4)

I like the points here with the Bulldogs against SMU in the Frisco Bowl. The biggest thing here is SMU lost head coach Chad Morris to Arkansas and that's a massive blow to this program. Morris is the main reason that the Mustangs are relevant again. His biggest impact came on the offensive side of the ball and his ability to put that unit in a position to excel. Morris not only won't be calling the plays, but a good chunk of staff left with him for the Razorbacks. Graduate assistant GJ Kinne is being given the reigns as the play caller for this bowl game. I just think it's asking a lot for this offense to not miss a beat with a guy who has never called a game. At the same time, I question the entire motivation of this team in this game. 

As for the Bulldogs, this is a team that we can count on being prepared for this bowl game under head coach Skip Holtz, who has guided LA Tech to 3 straight bowl wins over the last 3 years. One of the impressive things with those wins is how well the offense performed scoring 35, 47 and 48 in those 3 wins. I think they put up another big number here against an awful SMU defense, which was one of the worst in the country this season. The Mustangs ranked 113th against the run (213.3 ypg) and 121st against the pass (273.4 ypg). Give me the Bulldogs +4! 

40* COWBOYS/RAIDERS SNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Raiders +3)

There’s no sugar-coating the Raiders lackluster performance last week in Kansas City. Not only did they not play well, they didn’t seem to have the fire you would expect given it was against one of their hated rivals and with the division on the line. Simply put, it was embarrassing showing by this team. Any time a team plays that poorly, we often see them come back with one of their best efforts and I expect just that against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

As for Dallas, I think people are getting a little too excited with their recent performances. Two weeks ago they beat the Redskins 38-14, but Washington was decimated with injuries. They also scored 2 late touchdowns to make it look a lot worse than it was. Keep in mind that banged up Redskins team followed that up by losing 13-30 at the Chargers. They then escaped with a win over a decimated Giants team, who also had all the off field distractions with their coach getting fired in the week leading up to the game. Again, Dallas made that look like a bigger blowout than it was, as they were tied 10-10 with less than 8 minutes to play and won by 20.

I believe taking advantage of two teams who were missing several key players has a lot of people forgetting what this team looked like in the first 3 games without Ezekiel Elliott. For those that forgot, they lost 7-27 at Atlanta, 9-37 at home to the Eagles and 6-28 at home to the Chargers.

I think we are going to see Derek Carr and that Raiders offense put up some points, while the Oakland defense feeds off the energy of the home crowd with one of their better showings. Give me the Raiders +3!

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (49ers -1)

I was on the 49ers in their win last week against the Texans and will back them again here. Usually when a team is sitting at 3-10 this late in the season, you have big time concerns with them even being motivated to play. That’s not the case with San Francisco, as this team is playing with a whole new sense of confidence under quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

I think 49ers fullback Kyle Juszcyk says it best, “It gets everyone excited. I mean, it feels like a whole new season here. It feels like we started last week. Especially, getting a win, we wish we had more games left. We wish we had a full season to do this thing with him.”

Not only has it brought life to the team, but the fan base couldn’t be more excited about the future. I expect a lot of the 49ers faithful to show up for this game and give San Francisco a big home field edge here.

At the same time, I’m not the high on this Tennessee team. The Titans haven’t been playing anywhere close to as well as their 6-2 record over their last 8 games would suggest. In fact, they were lucky to win a number of those contests, as 4 of the 6 wins came by 4-points or less with the two blowout wins coming at home against the Colts and Texans.

Offensively the Titans seem to be lost and a big reason for that is the poor play of quarterback Marcus Mariota. In his last 4 games he’s thrown just three touchdowns with 8 interceptions. In his last 3 games he’s thrown for a mere 184 yards against the Colts, 150 yards against the Texans and 159 yards against the Cardinals.

San Francisco’s overall defensive numbers aren’t great, but in their last 3 games they are allowing just 18 ppg and a mere 258.7 ypg. The defense has been especially good against the run, giving up just 80.7 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. It’s not like the Titans are running the ball all that effectively either, as they have had rushed for fewer than 95 yards in 3 of their last 4 games.

It’s also worth noting that Tennessee is a team that has not played well on the road this time of year. They are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. They are also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a losing home record. San Francisco on the other hand is an impressive 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset win as a road dog. Give me the 49ers -1!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Patriots -3) 

I’m going to take the New England Patriots -3 on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  

If history tells us anything, I think it’s that you don’t bet against the Patriots off a loss, especially an ugly showing like they had against the Dolphins in Week 14. 

New England is 41-19-2 ATS since the start of the 2001 season following a loss and a ridiculous 22-4 SU and 23-3 ATS when in this spot and listed as an underdog or favorite of 3-points or less. 

They are also 24-7 ATS in their last 31 off a game where they had less than 250 total yards and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after a game where they allowed more than 350 yards. 

I know it’s not something you see often from a New England team, but I don’t think this team showed up with the right mindset against the Dolphins. Part of it was the lack of respect for Miami and that team and the other was they had this massive game on deck against Pittsburgh. Let’s also not overlook that’s not the first time they have struggled on the road against the Dolphins.

One thing New England hasn’t done is struggle to find ways to beat these Steelers. The Patriots have won 4 straight in the series, which includes three wins over the last two seasons. They won 28-21 in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign. Last year they not only beat them 27-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 7, but destroyed them 36-17 later on in the AFC Championship Game. As you can see from the results, Bill Belichick and his staff have done a masterful job of keeping this high-powered Steelers offense in check, while the offense has had their way with the Pittsburgh defense.

Another thing that I think is getting overlooked here is just how fortunate the Steelers are to be riding an 8-game winning streak and sitting at 11-2. Let’s just look at their last 6 games. They have trailed by double-digits going into the 4th quarter of each of their last two games against the Ravens and Bengals. Needed overtime to beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers at home 31-28. They trailed the Colts 3-17 in the 2nd half of a 20-17 win and were bailed out by bad coaching in a 10-15 win agains the Lions, as Detroit went for it on 4th down instead of kicking field goals twice in the 2nd half. I just don’t think that’s the sign of a 11-2 team and it’s only a matter of time before their luck runs out. 

I know the Patriots are banged up right now, but they will be getting back Gronkowski from suspension. Not having him is a big reason why Brady and the offense struggled against the Dolphins. This is also not the same Steelers defense as it was a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh lost in my opinion their most important defensive player in Ryan Shazier in that physical game with Cincinnati. Without him last week they gave up 38 points and over 400 yards to a bad Ravens offense. New England is going to take full advantage of his absence in this one.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Lastly, favorites who have won 3 of their last 4 against and are playing a team that has won 8 or more games in their last 10 are a dominant 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Pats -3!

40* CHARGERS/CHIEFS SNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs +1.5) 

I'll gladly take the points here with Kansas City. It’s amazing how much the perception has changed on these two teams since they last met. Keep in mind that the Chiefs were a 2.5-point road favorite in LA for that first meeting, which means at that time KC would have been close to a 8.5 favorite at home. I’m just not buying it and while I don’t think the Chiefs should be laying more than a touchdown, they should be favored by at least a field goal.

I know it’s been a rough go of things for Kansas City since that 5-0 start, as they are just 2-6 over their last 8 games. What gets overlooked is that while they weren’t playing great, they were in just about everyone of those games they lost. More than anything, I think the win over the Raiders was huge for the psyche of this team.

That’s also now two straight games in which the offense has looked good. Had it not been for a couple dropped passes deep in Oakland territory, KC would have put up 40 on the Raiders. The week before they had 31 points and nearly 500 yards against the Jets. When this team is clicking offensively they are very tough to beat. I also like the matchup here, as the Chiefs are at their best when they can run the football. The Chargers are 29th in the NFL, giving up 124.8 ypg against the run.

The other thing here is the Chiefs’ defense has had Philip Rivers’ number. They picked him off 3 times in the first meeting this season and since Andy Reid and Bob Sutton came to KC, Rivers has a mere 79.3 QB rating in 9 games against the Chiefs, throwing just as many interceptions (11) as he has touchdowns (11).

Another huge factor here that I think gives the Chiefs a huge edge is the atmosphere that we will see in Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be electric for this prime time matchup, which is going to feel like a playoff game with what’s at stake. Keep in mind that a win here and the Chiefs would simply need to beat either Miami at home or Denver on the road in their final two games to lock up the AFC West title. Give me Kansas City +1.5!

50* NEW ORLEANS BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Troy -6.5) 

I just think the books are giving North Texas way to much respect here. I thought the same thing in the Mean Green’s last game against FAU in the C-USA title matchup, as they were only an 11-point dog, despite all signs pointing to the Owls winning by 20+. That’s exactly what happened and it could have been a lot worse than the 17-41 final, as FAU led 34-0 in the 2nd half before North Texas finally scored.

For me, I just don’t think this North Texas team is anywhere close to as their record would suggest. However, the fact that they have 9-wins and just played in a conference championship game, they get some love. This was a very fortunate team, as they went a perfect 5-0 in games decided by 7-points or less, with 4 of those coming by a field goal or less. Also, when they did play good teams they struggle to make it competitive. They lost to SMU by 22 and Iowa by 17 in non-conference and also lost by 38 to FAU in the regular season.

While the die-hards know how good this Troy team is, I don’t know that the general public does. The Trojans weren’t far off from going undefeated. They lost their opener at Boise State 13-24 and were in that game until the very end. The other was a loss at home to a bad South Alabama team, but it was a horrible spot for Troy off that huge win over LSU. Since that loss to the Jaguars, they hasn’t looked back, winning 6 straight to close out the year.

North Texas comes in with an offense that looks to be potent on paper, as the Mean Green put up 35.9 ppg (20th) and 467 ypg (18th). A lot of that is who they played, as there’s a lot of bad defenses in C-USA. The best D in the conference was C-USA and they could barely get first downs against them. Not to mention they recently lost one of the best offensive players in running back Jeffery Wilson, who led the team with 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns (also caught 24 passes).

Troy has a legit defense. The Trojans allowed just 17.5 ppg (11th) and 340.1 ypg (26th). We know they are the real deal by how well they played outside of league play in their two games against Boise State and LSU. On the flip side of all this, we have a not great but pretty good Troy offense against a bad North Texas defense. The Mean Green were abused on the ground, allowing an average of 208.1 ypg (108th). The Trojans are going to be able to put up points here and I just don’t see North Texas matching it to the point where they can keep this within a touchdown. Give me the Trojans -6.5!

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (49ers +3) 

It can be difficult to bet on games like this one, where you have two teams that are all but out of the playoff picture. I know the Texans are technically still alive, but I don’t think anyone is fooling the players on this team that they have a shot at making the playoffs with a 4-8 record with 4 weeks to play.

I think this team went into last week’s game against the Titans knowing that they needed to win that game to keep their slim hopes alive. I believe that’s going to make it really hard for Houston to show up here against a 49ers team that has one of the worst records in the league at 2-10.

Not only do I think the Texans are going to be lacking motivation here, but the injury situation just keeps getting worse and worse for this team. In last week’s game against Tennessee, they had 6 players leave the team and not return. They were forced to use running back Andre Ellington as a slot receiver. Tom Savage had to basically tell Ellington where to line up and who to block on each play. At least two of those players, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and wide out Bruce Ellington won’t be back this week, as each has been placed on IR. I got a feeling a lot of the other guys on Houston’s injury report that are listed as questionable won’t end up playing, as it’s just not worth playing hurt when there’s nothing to play for.

The big key here is that the 49ers are a team that I think is going to continue to come out and fight each week the rest of the way. There’s a ton of excitement with this team and the potential going forward with Garoppolo as their quarterback. I also think the fact that San Francisco traded for Garoppolo, eliminates any concern of them trying to tank and lose games for a higher draft pick.

There was a lot to like with Garoppolo’s first start against the Bears. He completed 26 of 37 attempts for 293 yards. Keep in mind that was against a good Chicago defense, which is sitting 12th in the league against the pass this season, giving up only 221.0 ypg. Now he faces a Houston secondary that is banged up (could be without top corner Jonathan Joseph) and currently ranked 22nd against the pass, giving up 235.8 ypg.

Lastly, it’s worth nothing that I still think the 49ers can win and cover here, even if the Texans are still holding on to the hope they can make the playoffs. That’s because this Houston offense simply can’t be trusted with Tom Savage at quarterback. Give me the 49ers +3!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers +3) 

I went against the Vikings last week with Atlanta. A game in which the difference was the Falcons had to settle for 3 field goals, while both of Minnesota’s score were touchdowns. I’m going to go against the Vikings again here, as I just don’t think this Carolina team should be a dog against anyone on their home field.

The Panthers 10-point loss at New Orleans doesn’t concern me, as the Saints are as tough as anyone to beat on their home field. I’ll take my chances here with Carolina rebounding at home against the Vikings, as we should see a desperate Panthers team that may need to win out just to make the playoffs.

Another big key here is this is not a great spot for Minnesota. The Vikings will be playing their 3rd straight on the road and each of the previous two have been huge games. The first was that Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, which at the time the Lions were still in the hunt for the NFC North lead. Then they had last week’s huge game at the Falcons. I just think it’s asking a lot of this team to go into Carolina and get a win against this team.

Note that teams playing 3 straight on the road going back to the start of the 2000 season have won that 3rd road game just 34% of the time and are just 43.5% ATS. It gets even worse if they are playing a good team that’s won more than 60% of their games, as the team playing their 3rd straight on the road have won outright just 24% of the time and covered only 33% of the time.  

While the Panthers don’t have the offensive fire-power of the Falcons, this team has been playing much better on that side of the ball here of late. They have scored at least 20 in 4 straight and are averaging 33.7 ppg over their last 3. Given the situation for the Vikings, I think we see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense be able to move the ball and unlike Atlanta, finish off drives with touchdowns and not field goals.

I also think Minnesota is going to have a really tough time moving the ball here against this Carolina defense. The Panthers are only giving up 19.8 ppg (10th) and are 6th in the NFL in total defense (297.6 ypg). They are also a balanced defense, ranking inside the top 10 against both the run (4th, 88.6 ypg) and the pass (7th, 209 ypg).

It’s also worth noting that the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a loss and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after playing a division game last time out. Carolina is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when listed as an underdog and 4-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a total set of 35.5 to 42 points. Give me the Panthers +3!

40* ARMY/NAVY GAME ATS KNOCKOUT (Navy -2.5) 

It's been 15 years since the last time that Navy came into this game with a chip on their shoulder, as the Midshipmen had won 14 straight prior to last years 17-21 loss to Army. My money is on Navy to get their revenge and avoid losing two straight in the series. While the Black Nights have the better record, the Midshipmen played the tougher schedule. I know Navy closed out the season going just 1-5 in their final 6 games, but it was a brutal stretch that had them play Memphis, Temple, Notre Dame and Houston all on the road, as well as an elite UCF team at home. The big key for me is how Navy was in all of those games. No loss came by more than 10-points, with 3 of those by 8 points or less. A few breaks go their way and I think we would see a 8-3 Navy team be closer to a touchdown favorite here. Give me the Midshipmen -2.5! 

40* SAINTS/FALCONS TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Falcons +1) 

The home team has such a big advantage in these Thursday games, but because of how well the Saints have been playing and the Falcons off a home loss to similarly strong team in the Vikings, we are getting exceptional value here with Atlanta at home. Not only is this a tough spot for New Orleans on the road, but you have to wonder just how much this team has left in the tank, as they have had to lay it all on the line the last two weeks against the Rams and Panthers. Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is poised for a breakout game here after a tough go of things last week against an elite Minnesota defense. The Saints are better on defense, but are not on the same level as the Vikings. Give me the Falcons +1! 

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWUT (Chiefs -3) 

It’s hard to put a finger on what’s exactly happened to the Chiefs. Outside of losing Eric Berry in Week 1, they haven’t really been hit that hard with injuries. If anything the key guys have been lost on defense, which doesn’t explain the big decline in production from the offense. The biggest difference is the lack of success the Chiefs have had running the ball. During their 5-0 start, KC averaged 156.2 ypg on the ground. Over their 1-5 stretch they have rushed for a mere 76.3 ypg.

Years ago the Jets would be the last team you want to face when you couldn’t run the ball, but that’s not the case now a days. New York comes in ranked 26th in the NFL, giving up 120.4 ypg on the ground. Just last week they gave up 145 on their home field to the Panthers. I think this is a defense the Chiefs can get right against. It’s also not just all the running game, Alex Smith has to play better than he has and again this is a team I think he will play well against.

I also think we are getting exceptional value here with Kansas City. What really has everyone down on this team is not only were they struggling to win games, they haven’t been covering. A big reason for that is they were way overvalued coming off that 5-0 start, laying 10-points on the road and more than a touchdown against the Bills. The books have finally adjusted, as the public is off this team. Just a coupe weeks ago I think the Chiefs would have been closer to a touchdown favorite here, but instead we get them laying only a field goal.

It would be one thing if the Jets were 3-3 over their last 6 and showed the ability to close out games, but they are 1-5 and you have to wonder just how much more fight this team has left in them. It’s do or die fo the Chiefs in this game. I’ll put my trust here in Andy Reid and his staff putting together a game plan to leave New York with a win. Give me Kansas City -3!

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Ravens -2.5)

I would have to lean here towards taking Baltimore and would strongly consider buying it down to 2.5 or wait it out and see if it doesn’t drop (public is on the Lions). I personally am just not all that impressed with Detroit. They are 3-4 in their last 7 and those 3 wins came against the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, Browns at home and at Chicago. Keep in mind that was Green Bay’s first game without Rodgers and they were outgained and trailed by double-digits to both Cleveland and Chicago. The loss to the Vikings last week isn’t a shocker, but note Detroit had a big edge in that game playing at home on a short week of rest.

As for the Ravens, I’m not exactly sold on this team either. The big reason for that is the offense is one of the worst in the league. Defensively they are elite in my eyes, especially now that they are healthy. They had a stretch during the middle of the season where they didn’t play great on that side of the ball, but were missing some key guys. Baltimore is also one of the best in the league at special teams, which can win you a lot of games in this league.

I think this is a game where they can get some offense going. The Lions rank 26th in the league, giving up 359.4 ypg and are in the bottom 10 against both the run (24th, 116.2) and the pass (23rd, 243.2 ypg). Hard to trust a team that doesn’t play defense on the road. It’s also worth pointing out that their run defense has really struggled away from home, as they are giving up 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Getting the run game going will do wonders for this Ravens offense.

I also give Baltimore an edge when Detroit has the ball. It’s no secret that the Lions’ offense is built around Matthew Stafford and their passing attack. That plays right into the strength of this Ravens stop unit. Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL when it comes to holding opposing quarterbacks in check, as they are allowing just 189.9 ypg through the air. Look for Terrell Suggs and the rest of the Ravens front to live in the Lions backfield.

That should be a recipe for at least a couple turnovers to help set up the offense with some short fields. Note that Baltimore leads the NFL with 26 takeaways. They have forced 2 or more in 6 of their 11 games and have 13 in their 5 home games this season. Detroit has committed at least 1 turnover in 7 straight games.

I just think there’s too much here pointing in favor of the Ravens and with the short price I think we are getting great value. Give me Baltimore -2.5! 

50* NFL *NFC* GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -2.5) 

This is simply too good of a price to pass up with Atlanta. After struggling to put it all together early on, the Falcons have started to look more and more like the team that steamrolled through the NFC playoffs a season ago. It feels like the turning point in their season was that ugly 7-23 loss at New England. Since that defeat, they have gone 4-1.

The only game they lost was at Carolina by 3-points, a game they could have easily won. They had a 10-point lead early and won the yardage and turnover battle. In their last 3 games they have crushed the Cowboys 27-7 at home, went on the road and beat the Seahawks in prime time on Monday Night Football and completed dominated a division rival in the Bucs.

The best teams in the NFL rarely lose on their home field and that where I feel we get the value when you have two good teams playing each other. We saw this two weeks ago with the Vikings, when they hosted the Rams, who had won 4 straight. Minnesota was just a 2-point home favorite and won that game 24-7. Similar story last week with the Rams hosting the Saints. New Orleans had won 8 straight and were just a 3-point road dog, but it was LA that won 26-20.

While the Vikings win last week at Detroit might be considered a good road win, I just don’t think the Lions are that great of a team. The only other wins for Minnesota away from home are against the Redskins, Bears and Browns (London). Their only loss came at Pittsburgh by a final of 9-26 and keep in mind they were an 8-point dog on the road against the Steelers. I see this Falcons team a lot closer to Pittsburgh than Detroit and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Falcons ran away with this one. Give me Atlanta -2.5!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Ohio State -5)

As much respect as I have for Wisconsin and what they have been able to accomplish this season, my money here is on Ohio State laying less than touchdown. While the Badgers can’t do anything about the schedule they were dealt, there’s no denying the fact that they have had it easy to this point. Their toughest game all season was at home against Michigan and while they won 24-10, it was a lot closer than the final score would indicate.

Wisconsin now takes a massive step up in competition this Saturday when they face Ohio State and I just have a hard time seeing them keep this one close. Offensively, the Badgers are a team that relies heavily on their ability to run the football. That’s a problem, because this Buckeyes defense is as good a unit against the run when they are on as you will find.

That means in order for Wisconsin to have success offensively, Alex Honibrook and the passing game will need to play a big role. I just don’t see it happening. The Badgers come in ranked 118th out of 130 FBS teams with a mere 182.8 yards/game through the air. So little was asked from Hornibrook that he only attempted more than 20 passes in one conference game. It’s also worth noting that he’s prone to mistakes. Prior to the Minnesota game, where he didn’t throw a pick, he had thrown at least one interception in 8 straight games. I expect him to add at least a couple more picks to his resume against the Buckeyes.

As for the Wisconsin defense, there’s no denying that they are strong on that side of the ball. However, I’m not quite convinced they are as good as the numbers would suggest. Over their 9-game Big Ten schedule the best offense they faced was Northwestern, which finished the year ranked a mere 59th in total offense, averaging 405.2 ypg. Six of their nine opponents ranked 85th or worse, with five 100th or worse. Ohio State is unlike anything they have seen, as the Buckeyes come in 4th in the nation averaging 529.8 ypg and can beat you with both the run (13th, 250.3 ypg) and the pass (27th, 279.5 ypg).

This reminds me a lot from the 2014 season when these two teams played in the Big Ten title game and Ohio State won 59-0 as a mere 4-point favorite. Keep in mind that was with a 3rd string starting at quarterback. It might not be quite that ugly, but I just don’t think it’s asking a lot of the Buckeyes to win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Ohio State -5! 

40* NCAAF SHARP MONEY ATS ANNIHILATOR (Fresno St +9.5)

I would have to take the points here with the Bulldogs against the Broncos. I think this line speaks volumes to how much more a public side Boise State is. Say what you want about last week’s game not meaning anything, Fresno State clearly outplayed the Broncos. Even after losing by a 11-points on the road, there’s those that will be willing to lay the 9-points here with Boise State simply because they trust them more and the game is being played on their home field.

I actually think it works in the Bulldogs favor here. Tedford and his staff can continue to use the disrespect hard to motivate their team, something that has fueled this team all season. Not only will they have the bigger chip on their shoulder, but they just might be the better team.

Fresno State’s defense is the real deal and has only gotten better as the season has moved on. Keep in mind they finished the season ranked 12th, allowing just 17.3 ppg, despite having to play both Alabama and Washington on the road in non-conference play.

One thing the Bulldogs did extremely well in the game last week against Boise State is shutdown the Broncos ground game. Fresno State held Boise to just 107 yards on 31 attempts (3.5 yard/carry). I like their chances of keeping the Broncos run game in check again and it’s a lot easier to play defense when you know the opponent can only beat you with the pass.

It wasn’t just the defense that shined, the Bulldogs put up 431 yards on a good Boise State defense. The Broncos simply didn’t have an answer for junior quarterback Marcu McCaryion, who threw for 332 yards and 2 scores, while also adding 27 yards on the ground. His favorite target was KeeSean Johnson, who had 6 catches for 119 yards and both of McCaryion’s touchdown passes. Jamire Jordan was also a factor, catching four passes for 91 yards.

The ability to attack this Broncos secondary is not only key to keeping this close enough on the road to cover, but it keeps open the backdoor if Boise happens to get off to a strong start. With all that said, I think Fresno State has an excellent shot at winning this game and simply feel that getting over a touchdown is a gift you can’t pass up on. Give me the Bulldogs +9.5!

50* NCAAF BIG 12 CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (TCU +7.5)

I just feel like this is too big a number for TCU to be catching in a game they are more than capable of winning outright. Keep in mind that in that first meeting in Norman, Oklahoma closed as just a 5.5-point favorite. Based off that line, the Sooners would have only been around a 3-point favorite at that time on a neutral field.

There’s a couple of reasons the line has jumped so much from then to now. One is the outcome of the first game, where Oklahoma was in complete control from the start and won by 18. The other is the books know that based on that first outcome and how well the Sooners have been playing, the public is going to be on Oklahoma here.

I personally don’t think the line should be closer to what it would have been a few weeks back with the Sooners around a 2.5 to 3-point favorite. With that said, there’s simply too much value here with TCU to pass up.

I know the game was basically over at the half in the first meeting, but I think there’s a lot to be said about how the 2nd half played out. TCU’s defense, which didn’t play up to their potential in the 1st half, held Oklahoma scoreless over the final two quarters. I believe that’s something they can build on going into the rematch and let’s not forget this Horned Frogs defense has been one of the best in the country this season.

The other big key here is where this game is being played. While I expect a pretty even amount of fans from both sides, it’s a whole different story playing a team on a neutral field than it is on their home field. Oklahoma has only lost 8 times over the last 11 years on their home field, so for them to win at home in the first meeting shouldn’t have been a huge surprise.

Lastly, I like the fact that all the pressure is on the Sooners in this game. Even with a win here the Horned Frogs likely don’t have a path to the playoffs. Oklahoma on the other hand is likely in with a win. So not only is TCU going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to get revenge, they should be the more relaxed of the two teams in this matchup. Like I said earlier, I think the Horned Frogs have an excellent shot at wining this game and a great chance of keeping it closer than expected. Give me TCU +7.5!

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (FAU -11)

I don’t typically love taking the favorite in these same season revenge games, but I just think there’s more than enough here to feel pretty confident with backing the Owls. Note that this line has already jumped quite a bit, as FAU opened as a 8.5-point favorite. I wouldn’t be surprised if ended up closer to 14 by the time kickoff comes around.

A lot can change over a little time in college football and just because FAU dominated North Texas a little over a month ago, it doesn’t mean it will happen again. However, I think there’s a good chance this one isn’t close. The Owls simply did whatever they wanted offensively against the Mean Green, racking up a ridiculous 804 yards and 37 first downs. They scored on their first 11 possessions, which is absurd. Chances are they won’t be as dominant, but they don’t need to win here by two touchdowns.

The biggest thing for me is the injuries that North Texas has suffered leading up this rematch. The biggest being the loss of running back Jeffery Wilson, who leads the team with 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns. On top of that, they could also be without wide out Jalen Guyton, who is questionable with a concussion. Guyton leads the team with 758 receiving yards and 9 touchdown catches. Even if Guyton is able to play, the loss of Wilson is going to make it tough for the Mean Green to keep pace. Backup Nic Smith did have 178 yards last week against Rice, but Rice’s defense is horrible. Smith got 8 carries in the first meeting with FAU and only had 25 yards (3.1 yards/carry).

One of the ways that North Texas could have kept this one closer than the first meeting is to establish the run and try to control the time of possession to limit the chances for FAU’s offense. I just don’t see them being able to do that with Wilson out o the picture. The Mean Green have no choice here but to try and go score for score with the Owls and I just don’t see them being able to keep pace over 4 quarters.

It’s also worth noting that North Texas has a history of not doing well against the spread in games that are expected to be high-scoring, as they are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 with a total of 63 or more. They also have had a hard time keeping it close on the road against high-powered offenses like FAU, as they are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams who average 425 or more yards/game and have lost these contests on average by 25.1 ppg. Give me the Owls -11!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (ULM +27)

This play comes down to the fact that I don't think Florida State has any interest in playing this game. What's been an absolute miserable season for a team that came in thinking they were legit national title contenders got even worse when head coach Jimbo Fisher decided it was time to pack up and head to the SEC, as he just accepted the head coaching job at Texas A&M.

I know they are just 1-win from being bowl eligible, but fighting for a crappy bowl game isn't something programs like FSU get all that excited about. In fact, I'm not convinced this team wants this season to last any longer than it has and if that's the case, they not only won't cover this huge spread, they could lose the game outright. 

I just feel that the line here doesn't factor into account the lack of motivation for Florida State and is set more based on what you would expect if this was the middle of the season. It's also worth noting that while the Seminoles could struggle to find an excuse to get pumped up for this one, the Warhawks are going to show up to play. ULM is just 4-7 and this is their last game no matter what. Even though FSU is down, this is still a potentially program changing win for the Warhawks. I think they treat this like their bowl game and at worst give the Seminoles a legit scare here. Give me ULM +27! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Memphis +7.5)

40* NFL REDSKINS/COWOBYS TNF NO BRAINER (Redskins -1.5) 

I just don’t trust this Dallas team right now. Not only is the offense missing their biggest weapon in running back Ezekiel Elliot, they have numerous players ailing along the offensive line. Left tackle Tyron Smith was able to return last week, but he’s still dealing with both groin and back problems. Right tackle La’el Collins figures to play, but also isn’t practicing because of back problems.

On top of all that, second year quarterback Dak Prescott is not playing well. He completed 20 of 27 attempts against LA, but only finished with 179 yards. He also threw 2 more interceptions, giving him 5 in the 3 games since Elliott’s suspension started. He’s also not thrown a single touchdown pass during this stretch.

It’s not just the offense that is struggling, the defense has allowed at least 27 points during the 3-game slide. A big part of that is they are having to be on the field a lot more. They have also been without All-Pro linebacker Sean Lee the last two games and he's the one guy this defense couldn't afford to lose.

During the Cowboys 3-game slide since Elliott’s suspension they have been outscored 92-22 and have failed to score at least 10 points in any game. It’s also worth pointing out that Dallas has been outgained by at least 100 yards in all 3 contests.

I know Washington has a laundry list of injuries that they are dealing with, but this team has shown the ability to fight through them. More than anything, I trust Kirk Cousins and this Redskins offense to be able to score and I see no reason why the defense won’t be able to hold their own with how poorly Dallas’ offense is performing without Elliott. Give me the Redskins -1.5!

40* NFL BIG MONEY UNDERDOG SHOCKER (49ers +7)

I'll gladly back San Francisco at home coming off their bye week against the Seahawks. There's no denying the 49ers are in rebuilding mode, but this is also a team that's much better than their 1-9 record, as they have 5 losses by 3 points or less and have been in most of their games. Seattle clearly isn't right after losing at home in a prime time game against the Falcons on Monday Night Football, yet they are getting treated here like an elite team. The thing is the Seahawks have lost a number of key players to injury, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I look for the 49ers to do enough here offensively to keep this close and potentially even win this game outright. Give me San Francisco +7! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Panthers -5) 

I just don't see Carolina failing to leave New York with a win. The Panthers are quietly sitting at 7-3 and right in the thick of things in the NFC, but aren't a team that's getting talked about a lot. Not only is this team flying under the radar, but I think they are only getting better as the season goes along. They come in having won 3 straight and simply can't take their foot off the gas with how well the Saints and Falcons are playing inside their division. The Jets were more competitive than anyone expected early on this season, but are just 1-4 in their last 5 and I think they have a hard time bringing that same energy they showed early over the final few weeks of the season. Biggest thing here is I just don't see New York being able to get anything going offensively against this top notch Carolina defense. Give me the Panthers -5! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Colts +3.5)

I think the Titans are one of the most overrated teams in the league and that showed in their last game, when they lost 17-40 at Pittsburgh. The Colts on the other hand are a team I feel is trending in the right direction and are simply a lot better than they get credit for. The biggest key here is Tennessee is not a good road team and that's evident by their awful 7-21 ATS record over their last 28 games. Titans have also had a hard time playing well against bad teams, as they are just 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 games against a team with a losing record. Colts are the exact opposite, having gone 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with winning road record. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 off of their bye week. Give me the Colts +3.5! 

40* NFL BIG MONEY ATS NO BRAINER (Dolphins +17)

As well as the Patriots are playing right now, I can't pass up on catching 3-scores with Miami against their division rivals. The Dolphins have been a hard team to figure out, as one week they look like a playoff contender and the next look like the worst team in the league. My money is on them to at least play well enough to keep this within the number, as there's no team they would rather beat than the Patriots. I also like the fact that Matt Moore is getting the start here instead of Jay Cutler. I just haven't been impressed with Cutler at all this season and I actually think the players have more confidence in Moore giving them a shot to win. I think he gets the offense going and the defense does just enough here to keep the Patriots from running away with this. Give me the Dolphins +17! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -2.5) 

I believe the value here is with the Irish laying less than a field goal against the Cardinal. Notre Dame’s playoff hopes took a huge hit with their loss to Miami. I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see them struggle against Navy last week, in fact, I was all over the Midshipmen in that spot.

The key here that even though it’s a bit of a long-shot, Notre Dame is not out of the playoff picture just yet and I believe that’s the key to backing the Irish in this contest. If Notre Dame was completely out of it, there’s no chance I would take them on the road against a good Stanford team, but with a shot I think they not only win, but win comfortably.

I know the Cardinal just recently knocked off Washington at home, which was a great win, I just don’t think this team is as good as people think. That win over the Huskies is their only win against a top tier opponent. One thing that stands out to me is that both of these teams played USC and the results were the complete opposite. Stanford lost 24-42 to the Trojans, while Notre Dame dominated USC 49-14.

The two teams that were able to beat the Irish this season were Georgia and Miami, who are two of the best defenses in the country when it comes to stopping the run. Simply put, if Notre Dame can’t run the ball, the offense has a hard time moving the ball, as Brandon Wimbush just isn’t that polished of a passer.

This is not your usual dominant Stanford defense. In fact, it’s one of the worst in recent memory. One of their biggest struggles has been stopping the run, as they are giving up 171.7 ypg and 4.7 yards/carry. The last time that Stanford allowed more than 170 rushing yards/game was in 2006 when they finished 1-11. I look for Wimbush and star running back Josh Adams to make life miserable for the Notre Dame defense.

The other big key here is that Stanford’s offense is all about their ability to get Bryce Love going, but he’s just not been the same player since he suffered an ankle injury in the win over Oregon back in the middle of October. He might break one big run, but overall I look for the Irish to key on him and force Stanford to try and move the ball through the air. At the same time, I think Notre Dame still has an excellent shot at winning here even if Love has a big game, as I just don’t think their defense will be able to keep the Irish in check. Give me Notre Dame -2.5!

40* NCAAF VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Arizona St +2)

This is a much improved Arizona State team from last year and I’ve backed them numerous times over the last couple months with a lot of success. They continued to be undervalued by the books and are now 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.

Revenge is a big time motivator at the college level and there’s no doubt that the Sun devils have had their eyes set on revenge against in-state rival Arizona after last year’s embarrassing 21-point loss. I look for Arizona State to not only win here, but to win convincingly.

One of the reasons the Wildcats get a ton of love from the books, is everyone is drawn to the big numbers of Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 1,325 yards and 11 touchdowns. Tate is certainly fun to watch, but he was held in check last week by the Ducks, as he had just 32 yards on 14 carries. Look for Arizona State to try and use the same game plan that Oregon used to slow down Tate in this one.

Even if Tate has a big game, I still like the Sun Devils chances here to get the cover. That’s because Arizona State’s offense should be able to score at will here against a Arizona defense that is dealing with a number of injuries. The Wildcats lost 3 different defensive lineman to injury in last week’s game against Oregon and have several other defensive players either questionable or out for the year.

Arizona does have a 3-2 record on the road this season, but could very easily be 1-4, as they have a 3-point win at Colorado and mere 1-point victory at Cal. The only legit win came against an awful UTEP team, while the other two were blowout losses to USC and Oregon. Adding to this, is the fact that this will be the Wildcats second straight on the road and 3rd road game in their last 4 overall. That’s not an easy thing to overcome this late in the season.

Arizona is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games in the 2nd half of the season and a mere 2-13 ATS in their last 15 vs a team like Arizona State, who is averaging more than 32 minutes of possession and 21+ first downs per game. The Sun Devils on the other hand are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games played on Saturday and 34-18 ATS in their last 52 at home against a conference opponent. Not only is the home team 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings in this series, but they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS. Give me Arizona State +2!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Minnesota +18) 

All those questions everyone had about whether or not Wisconsin was good enough to make the playoffs have quieted, as the Badgers have rolled off 3 straight impressive wins over Indiana (45-17), Iowa (38-14) and Michigan (24-10). Now everyone is all over Wisconsin, as the perception here is they will make easy work of the Golden Gophers. 

This Minnesota team hasn't performed like some were expecting in P.J. Fleck's first season, but they aren't going to go down without a fight, especially with the Gophers needing 1 more win to become bowl eligible. I look for Minnesota to come out like this is their Super Bowl and while it might not be enough to get the win, I think they put a huge scare into the Badgers and keep this well within the number. 

This being at home is huge for the Gophers, as I expect a rowdy crowd for this one and there's no question that Minnesota has played much better at home this year. The other big key here is that the Gophers have the defense to keep Wisconsin from running up the score. Minnesota is 28th in the country, giving up just 337 yards/game. That drops down to 322 ypg when they are at home. They also give up just 18.2 ppg at home and are holding teams to just 3.9 yards/carry against the run. I think this is a very similar defense to the one of Purdue, maybe even slightly better and the Boilermakers lost 9-17 on the road to Wisconsin. Wouldn't shock me if the Badgers struggled to score more than the spread. Give me the Gophers +18! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Georgia Tech +12) 

I'll gladly take 12 points with the Yellow Jackets at home against in-state rival Georgia. I think we are seeing a big overreaction here to how these two teams fared a week ago. The Bulldogs defeated Kentucky 42-13 and covered as a 24-point favorite. That was a lot closer game late than the final score would indicate, as it was only 13-21 midway through the 3rd quarter.

Georgia Tech on the other hand lost 20-43 at Duke as a 7-point favorite. That loss looks bad, but that was a tough spot for the Yellow Jackets off a big win at home as a dog against Virginia Tech and knowing they had this game against their rival on deck. I just don't think Georgia Tech had the right mindset going into that game and it shows with the fact that they allowed a season-high 319 rushing yards to a pretty sub-par Blue Devils offense. I expect to see a completely different mentality and focus for the Yellow Jackets in this one. 

The one thing we learned with Georgia in their loss to Auburn, is that if you can take away their running game the offense has a hard time moving the ball. I don't know that they can do what Auburn did to this Bulldogs offense, but I think they can hold their own. The Yellow Jackets come in ranked 29th in the country, giving up just 343 yards/game and have held their opponents to an average of just 95 yards and 3.1 yards/carry at home, where they are a perfect 5-0 SU on the season. I also think the triple-option has some success against the Georgia defense, allowing them to keep this close and potentially pull off the upset. Give me the Yellow Jackets +12! 

50* NCAAF RIVALRY GAME OF THE MONTH (Virginia +7.5) 

Bronco Mendenhall has done a tremendous job turning around this Virginia program, as he's already got them bowl eligible after they won just 2-games his first year on the job. He can really put a positive note on this season with a win over their rivals, as Virginia Tech has won the Commonwealth Cup 13 straight times. 

The Hokies just haven't been the same in year two under Justin Fuente and have struggled down the stretch. Virginia Tech is just 1-2 over their last 3 and have failed to cover 3 straight. While the Hokies have put up strong defensive numbers, I think they have a tough time containing Virginia's high-powered passing attack led by senior Kurt Benkert, who has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards with a 25-8 TD-INT ratio. 

The other huge factor here is that this game is being played at Scott Stadium under the lights on ESPN. The atmosphere in Charlottesville will be electric as the Cavaliers believe they got a shot at the upset. Win or lose, I see this one coming right down to the wire. Give me Virginia +7.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (USF +10)

It's almost as if people forgot about how good this South Florida team is. Not to take anything away from UCF, but this is just too big of a number for them to be laying against the best team they have faced all season. Not only do I think the Bulls are capable of keeping this close enough to cover, but I think there's a good chance to win the game outright and spoil the Knights quest for a perfect season. 

For the most part this season UCF has simply been able to just outscore their opponent, but that won't be so easy against the Bulls. USF not only has a high-powered offense that can go score for score with the Knights, but they are also a lot better defensively than they get credit for. The Bulls are only giving up 19.9 ppg and I think they are better than that, as they haven't exactly had to give their best effort in a lot of their games because of how lopsided the matchup was. 

UCF is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Bulls on the other hand have stepped up against the better competition going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me South Florida +10! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Houston -4.5) 

I'll lay the points here with the Cougars at home against the Midshipmen. I just think this is a tough spot for Navy after that big game against Notre Dame, where they had the No. 8 team in the country on the ropes. I know they have a week off after this game against Houston, but I also think it will be hard for the Midshipmen to not look ahead to their huge rivalry game against Army, which means a little more than normal after last year’s loss to the Black Knights.

As for Houston, I look for a big bounce back effort here after laying an egg on the road against Tulane last week. The Cougars will also be out for revenge, plus have a little extra motivation here with this being their final home game of the season (senior day).

The big key here is I believe Houston has the talent up front to really cause problems for Navy’s triple-option attack and it all starts with star sophomore defensive lineman Ed Oliver, who has helped guide the Cougars to the 39th ranked run defense, giving up just 142.7 yards/game. Note that last week they held Tulane, who is currently 22nd in the country at 237 rushing yards/game to just 166 yards on 47 attempts (only 3.5 yards/carry).

If they can keep the Midshipmen from running at will, it’s going to keep Navy from controlling the clock and let Houston’s offense pick apart a weak Navy defense. If the Cougars can get their offense going early, this could turn into a bit of a blowout, as the Midshipmen aren’t built to play from behind. Give me Houston -4.5! 

40* NFL LATE NIGHT THANKSGIVING ATS NO BRAINER (Giants +7.5) 

I was impressed with how New York responded after being called out by their head coach in the week leading up to their game against Kansas City. They played one of their best games of the season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I believe we will see this team carry over that effort here against a division rival.

As for Washington, I think it’s asking a lot of this team to pull away for a comfortable win here. While they aren’t officially out of the playoff race, that loss to the Saints really made things difficult for the Redskins. The Falcons hold the final Wild Card spot in the NFC at 6-4 and there’s 4 teams between Atlanta and Washington.

The big concern here for me with the Redskins is they are once again dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Starting center Spencer Long is on IR and backup Chase Roullier just fractured a bone in his hand this past Sunday. Good chance Roulier doesn’t play and if he doesn’t backup guard/tackle Tony Bergstrom will be forced into action at center. The team will also be without starting left guard Shawn Laovao and left tackle Trent Williams will be a go on short rest with a bum knee. Needless to say the offensive line is a complete mess right now and it’s just hard to win games, especially by more than a touchdown when dealing with these kinds of injuries up front. Look for the Giants defensive front to live in Washington's backfield. 

That’s not the end of the injuries for the Redskins offense. Wide out Terrelle Pryor and running back Chris Thompson both just landed on IR. While Pryor has been a disappointment after signing as a free agent, Thompson is tied for the team lead with 39 receptions and his 510 yards receiving are second only to Vernon Davis with 527. Thompson is also the top backup at running back with Rob Kelly on IR. Same Perine has taken over as the lead back, but he’s questionable, as is tight end Jordan Reed.

I know the offense of the Giants is nothing to get excited about, but the Redskins defense has been reeling. Washington has allowed 30+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. If they struggle at all to find motivation after that crushing loss to the Saints, New York could be in store for one of their best offensive games of the season. At the same time, I don't think they have to be great offensively to keep this within a touchdown, as I don't see this turning into a shootout. Give me the Giants +7.5!

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Mississippi St -14.5) 

I would typically look to back the underdog in a rivalry game like we have here in what is known as the Egg Bowl, but I just don't see how Ole Miss keeps this game close. Sure, they haven't had anything to play because of a self-imposed postseason ban. I'm not saying that the Rebels won't show up for this one. That's not a doubt. I just don't think they are good enough to keep it close. 

You don't think this team wanted to beat Alabama when they played them? The Crimson Tide destroyed them 66-3. They also had a 21 point loss to Auburn and 16 points defeat at home to LSU. Those are the only 3 ranked teams they played and they weren't competitive in any of those. 

Mississippi State is just a step below the elite of the SEC, which in my opinion is Alabama, Auburn and Georgia. Right there with LSU. The Bulldogs had some struggles on the road against Georgia and Auburn early in the year, but those came on the road and this is a much better team at this point in the season, which is evident of their upset win over Alabama a few weeks back. 

While they did just fail to cover as a near two-touchdown favorite last week at Arkansas, they just didn't have the same fire coming off that loss against the Crimson Tide. They won't be lacking it against Ole Miss. 

Offensively the Bulldogs should have a field day, as the Rebels have had all kinds of problems stopping the run and slowing down dual-threat quarterbacks. Ole Miss does have some talent on offense, but this is a top tier Mississippi State defense that is going to feed off the home crowd under the lights in a prime time game. I think they can hold the Rebels to 21 or less, while scoring close to 40. Give me the Bulldogs -14.5! 

40* NFL THANKSGIVING BANKROLL FEAST (Vikings -2.5)

I'll take the bait here and back Minnesota laying less than a field goal against the Lions. The Vikings are going to be out for revenge here. Not only for their earlier 7-14 loss to Detroit at home, but they have lost 3 straight overall in the series, including a crushing 13-16 loss at Detroit last Thanksgiving. Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points.

Despite the fact that Minnesota sits at 8-2, I just don’t feel this team gets the respect they deserve from the books. We saw it last week when they were less than a field goal favorite at home against the Rams. I think we are seeing them undervalued again, as I’m just not buying this Lions team.

Sure Detroit is 6-4, but a lot of those wins have come against bad teams, especially during their 3-game winning streak. A stretch in which they have played Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, as well as the Browns and Bears. Note that they had to rally from 10-points down against both Cleveland and Chicago. It’s great they were able to pull out the wins, but I think it also speaks to just how this isn’t an elite team.

The Lions were able to hand Minnesota a loss on their home field earlier this season, but that was about as bad as the Vikings have played. They turned it over 3 times, including two early giveaways to start the 2nd half that turned into 10-points for Detroit. The Minnesota defense held the Lions to just 251 yards and I see now reason why the Vikings won’t be able to shutdown Stafford and company again this time around.

Another key here is that Minnesota’s offense has improved dramatically since the first month of the season, as Case Keenum is playing as well any QB in the league right now. At the same time, the Lions defense has regressed. Not only did they give up 24 points to two horrible offenses in the Browns and Bears, they allowed each of those teams to rush for over 200 yards.

Vikings are a ridiculous 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games overall. They are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games played inside a dome. Give me Minnesota -2.5! 

40* NFL FALCONS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Seahawks -2.5)

My money is on the Seahawks laying less than a field goal at home against the Falcons. I just don’t think Seattle is getting near enough respect here in a prime time home game, especially this late in the season and with how much they want this game given what happened in that ugly playoff loss to the Falcons a year ago. Year in and year out under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks always seem to be playing their best football in the 2nd half.

I know they lost a huge piece to their defense in Richard Sherman, but they still have two of the best safeties in the game in Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. I also think backup Jeremy Lane is capable of holding his own. Lane also has had a few extra days to get use to his new role, as Seattle gets a big advantage here playing with 3 extra days of rest after the Thursday night game.

At the same time, I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with Atlanta off that big win over the Cowboys. Dallas is simply not the same team without Ezekiel Elliott and there would have been major concerns had they not won convincingly. I just think that win has people thinking this team is back, but in reality they are 2-4 in their last 5 and more likely to revert back to their old ways.

It’s also not like Atlanta’s offense lit the world on fire against the Cowboys and the offense hasn’t looked the same all season. Even without Sherman this is a top notch Seahawks defense that is only giving up 18.3 ppg. I also don’t think the offense gets enough respect, especially at home. Seattle is averaging an impressive 28.2 ppg and 426 ypg at home this season. Look for Russell Wilson and the offense to steal the show in this prime time affair. Give me the Seahawks -2.5!

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ravens -2) 

I believe the fact that Green Bay was able to pull out a victory in Chicago has provided some hope that the Packers aren’t completely done for without Rodgers. I’m not buying it, as I don’t think any player means more to their team than Rodgers. Let’s also not overlook the win came against the Bears, a team they know very well with them being in the same division, plus Chicago is a bad team.

I know the Ravens haven’t been playing great here of late, but this is a great spot to back them, as Baltimore is coming off of their bye. A big time advantage this late in the season. It’s also a spot in which they have excelled, as they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games off their bye week.

I also love this matchup for the Ravens, who are a top tier defensive team. Baltimore is 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 311 yards/game. While the run defense hasn’t been great, Green Bay isn’t a strong running team and could be without their two best options out of the backfield. Aaron Jones had really come on strong for the Packers, but he’s out 3-6 weeks with an MCL injury and backup Ty Montgomery is questionable with a rib injury. That’s going to put too much pressure on Brett Hundley, who simply isn’t very good.

The big concern with Baltimore is their offense and rightfully so. The Ravens rank 30th out of 32 teams at just 286.6 ypg. However, this Packers defense is getting exposed now that they are being asked to do a lot more with the offense struggling to score. In Green Bay’s 3 games without Rodgers, the defense has allowed 408.3 ypg and 6.4 yards/play.

While the win over the Bears certainly helped keep this line from being more, I also think Green Bay is getting more respect than it deserves on their home field. Keep in mind we already have seen them lose badly at home in two games without Rodgers, falling 17-26 to the Saints and 17-30 to the Lions and that game against Detroit was on Monday Night Football, when you would expect the home field edge to be at it’s strongest. Give me the Ravens -2!

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Redskins +8)

As hard as it is to go against a red-hot team like the Saints, I would have to lean towards taking the points here with Washington. Not to take anything away from New Orleans and their 7-game winning streak, as it’s no easy task to win that many in a row, regardless of who you are playing, but it’s certainly been a favorable stretch for them.

In just their last 4 games they have faced Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, the Bears and Bucs at home and a clearly dysfunctional Bills team that is doing everything they can to ruin this season. The latest move being benching starting QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of Nathan Peterman.

They also have a home win over the Lions and win against the Dolphins in London where Miami didn’t show up to play. The best win of the bunch is a victory at Carolina way back in Week 3. That looks great now with how the Panthers are playing, but keep in mind that Cam Newton was playing at less than 100% early in the year.

Now I’m not saying the Saints are going to lose this game at home, I just think it’s asking a lot for them to win here by more than a touchdown against a good but not great Washington team. Despite a rash of injuries, including a stretch where they were missing 4 starting offensive linemen, the Redskins have showed a lot of fight and this feels like a game they need to have to keep their playoff hopes alive.

We also have a strong system that backs this being a good time to fade the Saints. Favorites in the NFL that are averaging 27 or more points/game are just 9-27 (25%) ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games since 1983. Give me the Redskins +8!

50* NFL SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Vikings -2)

The Vikings simply aren’t getting enough respect on their home field. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach, Minnesota has gone 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS at home. One of things I like about this Vikings team is you rarely hear anyone talking about them, despite the fact that they are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL at 7-2.

LA has that same 7-2 record and they are getting all kinds of love. Mainly because no one saw this coming. Either way, I think it’s going to have the Vikings playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they look to send a message to the rest of the league that they are for real. This is also a huge game in terms of a potential first round bye in the playoffs.

The biggest thing for me in this matchup is I believe the Vikings have the talent defensively to slow down this high-powered Rams attack. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the NFL against the run (81.3 ypg) and are 12th against the pass (213.2 ypg). No one enjoys shutting down a great offense more than Zimmer, who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the game today. Since he took over at Minnesota, the Vikings are 11-2 ATS in 13 games against excellent passing teams, who average 260 or more yards/game through the air. They are also 8-1 ATS in 9 games against teams that average 375 or more total yards/game.

Another factor here that I think favors Minnesota is the Rams have kind of been on cruise control here of late. Each of their 4 games during their winning streak have been decided by 10 or more points. They haven’t been in a closely contest battle in more than a month. The Vikings on the other hand are team that’s got countless close wins under their resume over the last few seasons and my money is on them to find a way to win this game at home. Give me Minnesota -2!

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (Oregon PK)

I think we are getting some great value here with the Ducks at just a pick’em on their home field in a prime time night game on Saturday. I think a lot of people will be inclined to back Arizona here, as they have been the much better team of late. The Wildcats are 5-1 in their last 6 games with the only loss coming at USC. Oregon on the other hand is 1-4 in their last 5 with the only win coming at home against Utah.

My biggest concern here with the Wildcats is a lack of motivation, as there’s really not a lot at stake for Arizona. With USC’s win over Colorado last week, Arizona no longer has a shot at the Pac-12 South title. I think they could find it difficult to get up for an Oregon team that hasn’t been playing well, especially given that they got their huge in-state rivalry game against Arizona State on deck next week.

As for Oregon, they still need 1 more win to become bowl eligible, something that’s a bigger deal than normal given they didn’t qualify last year and are in the first season of new head coach Willie Taggart. I also think we get a very motivated Ducks team off of their bye after how poorly they played in their last game against Washington.

However, the biggest reason that I like the Ducks, is I feel there’s an excellent chance we see starting quarterback Justin Herbert return from injury. Some thought he was going to return in their last game against the Huskies, but it didn’t happen. While nothing is official, he was practicing with the first team during the bye week and Taggart mentioned in his press conference on Monday that he’s really close and hopeful that he’s going to be ready to play.

My money is on him playing and with him this is a completely different Oregon offense. Herbert had completed 68.3% of his attempts for 1,264 yards and 9 touchdowns (only 2 picks) before getting hurt. Backup Braxton Burmeister in comparison has thrown for 324 yards in 5 games, 4 starts.

If by chance Herbert doesn’t play, I still like the Ducks here, as they bring a potent rushing attack to the table, which is currently ranked 11th in the country at 255.2 ypg. Arizona just allowed 151 to a horrible Oregon State ground game last week and the week prior gave up 331 rushing yards to USC.

I also think the bye week is going to pay off huge for Oregon’s defense, which will have two weeks to put together a game-plan to slow down the Wildcats Khalil Tate. Note that the Ducks strength defensively has been stopping the run, as they are 30th against the run (130.5 ypg) compared to 98th against the pass (249.2 ypg).

Oregon is also a profitable 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games off a bye, while Arizona is just 3-12 ATS under Rich Rodriguez in road games off a cover and 0-6 ATS under Rodriguez in road games after scoring 31 or more points in 3 straight games. Give me the Ducks!

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS BLOWOUT (Texas A&M +3)

Not only does Texas A&M have revenge on their minds from last year’s loss to Ole Miss, but they are the only team with something to play for down the stretch. Ole Miss is not eligible for postseason play, as they self-imposed a one-year ban.

It’s a big reason why the Rebels are just 5-5 with only 2 wins in SEC play. Keep in mind those two wins both came against teams out of the East in Kentucky and Vanderbilt. They are 0-3 against teams from the West, including a loss at home to Arkansas, which to this point is the Razorback’s only conference win.

I just have a hard time seeing Ole Miss matching the Aggies intensity in this one given the circumstances, especially with their huge in-state rivalry game against Mississippi State on deck.

While Texas A&M is just 3-3 in league play, all 3 of their losses have come against top teams out of the West in Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State. I just feel they are the much better team in this matchup and actually would have them favored.

The biggest factor here for me is I can only trust one of these teams to get stops on the defensive side of the ball and that’s Texas A&M. Ole Miss has been atrocious on defense this year, as they come in 112th in points allowed at 35.6 ppg and are 118th in total defense, giving up 454.2 ypg. In comparison, the Aggies are only giving up 27.5 ppg and are a respectable 39th in total defense, allowing just 367.2 ypg.

Ole Miss is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games played in November, 3-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Aggies +3! 

50* NCAAF *BIG TEN* GAME OF THE MONTH (Purdue +8)

I'll take the points with the Boilermakers in this one. Purdue is a team that I have been on quite a bit this season and a big reason for that is the big improvements I was expecting under new head coach Jeff Brohm. While the wins have been tough to come by of late, this team could easily be sitting at 6-4 and 4-3 in league play. They only lost at Wisconsin by a final of 9-17 and have two conference defeats by a combined 3 points against Rutgers and Nebraska.

Not only do I think Purdue has a good chance of keeping this within the number, I wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright. That’s because this is not an ideal spot for Iowa coming off those two huge games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. Not to mention a big rivalry game on deck to close out the year at Nebraska looming next Friday. I just think it’s going to be hard for them to give the Boilermakers their full attention, especially given how lopsided the series has been.

Purdue on the other hand should lay it all on the line in this one. Sitting at 4-6, the Boilermakers need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. Getting to a bowl game is a big deal for this team, as they haven’t been to one since 2012.

The other thing here is Iowa is a team that more times than not find themselves in close games and rarely do they blow teams out unless there’s a big gap in talent. I just don’t think Purdue is one of those teams that they have a massive edge against.

Lastly, there’s a good chance this is a low-scoring game, which makes the points that much more valuable. Sure Iowa put up 55 in their last home against Ohio State, but after watching the Buckeyes thrashing of Michigan State, I think that was clearly more of Ohio State not showing up to play. After their 14-points against Wisconsin, all via the defense, the Hawkeyes have now scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their 7 Big Ten games. The only other exception against the worst team in the league in Illinois.

This is also a spot Iowa has struggled in, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. On the flip side of this, Purdue is 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me the Boilermakers +8! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP PLAY (Navy +18) 

You can never be quite sure how a team will respond to a loss like the one Notre Dame suffered, but more times than not those teams struggle to play up to their potential the next time out. Especially in a situation like this, where the loss for the Irish all but eliminated them from a chance to make the 4-team playoff. Not only do I think it has Navy showing some great value here as a 3-score underdog, but I believe it gives them a legit shot at pulling off the upset.

While Notre Dame could find it difficult to pick themselves up off the mat, Navy is going to come out guns blazing against a what’s likely to be a Top 10 opponent. Not to mention they will be playing with a ton of confidence after that thrilling win over SMU.

Another thing here is that the Midshipmen are better than they get credit for. Their largest loss all season is by just 10-points at home against a very good UCF team and they were right there down just a field goal with less than 5 minutes to play. They also have a mere 3-point loss at Memphis who is a Top 20 team.

Navy is also a team that’s built to keep games close with their triple-option attack that eats up the clock and limits the opposing teams number of possessions. It’s also a very difficult offense to prepare for and you have to wonder just how motivated the Irish players are going to be in practice this week. If Notre Dame doesn’t come in with the right state of mind, Navy is going to torment that defense from start to finish.

Midshipmen are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when listed as an underdog and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a home win by 3-points or less. The Irish on the other hand are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games against similar teams to Navy, who are a run first team (average 125 or less passing yards/game). Give me the Midshipmen +18! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Virginia +19)

As good as Miami looked against Notre Dame, this is a tricky spot for the Hurricanes. For most of this season Miami has been the team flying under the radar. They also had a chip on their shoulder as everyone kept doubting them. Now the roles have been reversed. Everyone is singing the Hurricanes praises and while the college football playoff rankings aren’t out just yet, they are up to No. 2 in both the AP and Coaches Polls.

This is the ideal letdown spot for Miami, as that win over the Irish was the biggest in quite some time for this program and no one is expecting Virginia to be a serious threat. As much as head coach Mark Richt will try to keep his team focused at the task at hand, it’s going to be very hard for the Hurricanes to do just that.

I’m not saying the Cavaliers are going to win this game outright, but I think they can do enough here to keep it within the number. Let’s not forget this Miami team has had several close calls this season. Not only did they have the two miraculous last-second wins over both FSU and Georgia Tech, but they also only beat the likes of Syracuse by 8 and North Carolina by 5.

I also think Virginia poses a difficult matchup. One of the reasons the Hurricanes were able to shutdown Notre Dame’s offense is the Irish didn’t have anything to fall back on when the running game wasn’t working. The Cavaliers likely aren’t going to have much success on the ground either, but senior quarterback Kent Benkert and this offense feature a potent passing attack. I believe it’s good enough to move the ball and put some pressure on this defense, it also keeps open the possibility of a backdoor cover if things do happen to get out of hand early.

Another thing is this Miami offense is still a work in progress. While they scored 41 against the Irish, they only put up 374 total yards in that game. The defense was as big a part of the offense than anything, as they had just 1 scoring drive more than 60 yards, with 4 scoring drives that started with the offense getting the ball on the Irish side of the field. Keep in mind that the Hurricanes had scored 28 or fewer points in each of their previous 5 games.

One last thing is this ridiculous rate that Miami is creating turnovers is simply not sustainable and there’s going to come a time when the breaks just don’t go their way. With a defense that figures to just be going through the motions off that big win, this could be the week they don’t rack up the turnovers and that not only would give Virginia a great shot at covering, but potentially pulling off the upset. Give me the Cavaliers +19! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Mississippi St -11.5)

I typically wouldn’t look to back a team like the Bulldogs off such a crushing loss in a big game, but I have a lot of faith in head coach Dan Mullen and his staff to get his team to bounce back with a big time effort. In fact, I believe that performance against Alabama will only add to the confidence of this Mississippi State team, who has had a chip on their shoulder from the start after getting picked by most experts to finish last in the SEC West. Not only are they not going to finish last, but they have a chance at a 10-win season if they can win their last two and their bowl game.

The other big thing here is this isn’t a good Arkansas team. The Razorbacks only win inside conference play came against Ole Miss, who is basically just going through the motions with no shot at postseason play. Arkansas is getting outscored in conference play by more than 20 ppg and have been no match against the top teams.

I also think it’s important to point out that LSU was in a very similar spot to Mississippi State, as they had just lost the week before to Alabama. That would have been an easy spot for the Tigers to lay down and yet they won the game by 23 points. Another factor that will get overlooked with the Bulldogs off that loss to the Crimson Tide is the revenge angle that Mississippi State has after last year’s loss to the Razorbacks.

The matchup is also one that I think favors the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s defense has been outstanding outside of their 3 games against Auburn, Georgia and Alabama, who are easily the 3 best teams in the SEC. Even if the defense slips, the offense should be able to carry the load and do enough to get a win here by at least two touchdowns. Arkansas’ defense has been non-existent in SEC games this season, as the Razorbacks are allowing 43.5 ppg and have allowed at least 33 in all 6 of their conference games.

Arkansas is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a winning record and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. On the flip side of this, we see that Mississippi State is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when coming off a home loss. Give me the Bulldogs -11.5!

50* NCAAF *AAC* GAME OF THE MONTH (Temple +14) 

I love the Owls in this spot. UCF is a great team but because of their great start against the spread are way overvalued right now. I not only think they have a hard time covering this number against Temple, but I wouldn't be shocked if their perfect season came crashing to an end on Saturday. 

The Owls have been a different team since Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback. He's started just 3 games and already has 883 passing yards and is completing 65% of his attempts with a 6-3 TD-INT ratio. UCF has been exposed through the air on multiple occasions and I think his ability to make plays gives the Owls a great shot at the upset here. 

This is also a horrible spot for UCF. While they can see Temple has been playing better, they have already had the game next week at home against USF circled on the calendar. I just don't think they are going to have the right mindset here and it only gets harder to play up to your true potential when you get this deep in the schedule without a loss. One thing is for sure and that's the Owls are going to lay everything they have on the line here and that should be enough for them to cash a winning ticket. Give me Temple +14! 

40* NFL THURSDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Steelers -7) 

Most people expected the Steelers to cruise to an easy win and cover against the Colts last Sunday, but that didn’t happen. Pittsburgh was lucky just to leave Indianapolis with a win. I think that performance will have a lot of people looking to back the Titans catching a touchdown in this Thursday night matchup, but I’m just not a believer in this Tennessee team and will take my chances with the Steelers at home in a prime time game.

It’s no secret that the home team has a huge edge in these Thursday games when both teams are playing on short rest. That combined with the fact the Titans have no been a good road team is a big reason why I’m willing to lay the touchdown here. Tennessee hasn’t played on the road since they went to Cleveland back on 10/22 and they barely beat the Browns, needing overtime to escape with a 12-9 win. The Titans also lost at Miami 10-16 and at Houston 14-57 in their previous two on the highway.

As you can see, the offense has really struggled to put up points away from home and it’s not going to get any easier here against a very good Steelers defense. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 16.4 ppg and are also 2nd in total defense, allowing just 284.5 ypg. One thing Pittsburgh does very well is stop the run. They haven’t allowed a team to rush for more than 71 yards in each of their last 4 games. While Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a quality signal caller, Tennessee ranks just 27th in the NFL at 203.9 passing yards/game.

As for the Steelers offense, you simply can’t read to much into their lackluster showings in their last two games at Detroit and at Indianapolis. For whatever reason, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense just doesn’t play well on the road. With a tired and banged up Titans defense coming to town, I look for Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense to have a lot of success here against what I think is an overrated Tennessee defense. The Titans rank just 23rd in points allowed, giving up 23.7 ppg, despite an easy schedule. In their 9 games they have faced numerous bad offenses, such as the Jaguars, Dolphins, Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals.

Titans are also not a team that has performed well off a win, as they are just 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 games off a win. Tennessee is also just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game in which they didn’t cover the number and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Steelers -7! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Buffalo -20.5)

I don’t know how you could even think about backing Ball State in this one. The Cardinal have shown no reason to think they can keep a game competitive. Their smallest margin of defeat inside MAC play is a 28-point loss at Akron. The other 5 have all come by at least 42 points. It’s really not asking a lot for Buffalo to win here by 3 touchdowns.

I believe that part of the reason we aren’t seeing a bigger spread is because the Bulls come into this game with a losing record at 4-6 and are just 2-4 in conference play. However, Buffalo’s not as bad as you might think. All 6 of their losses have come by 10-points or less, with 4 of them by 4-points or less. The Bulls could very easily have 7 wins right now and I think that’s how you have to treat them.

The big concern anytime you have a bad team like Ball State is the opponent not giving their full attention. I don’t see that being a problem. Not only are the Bulls going to be out for revenge from last year’s loss to the Cardinals (lost 3 straight overall), but they have to win out to become bowl eligible. Note that getting to a bowl is a big deal, as they haven’t been since 2013 and only been twice in program history.

Buffalo should also have zero problem here putting up a big number offensively. The Bulls come in 44th in the country 427 yards/game, behind a potent passing attack that ranks 24th at 285 yards/game. Not only will they be able throw it all over the Cardinals, but they should be able to run it at will, as Ball State has allowed 220+ rushing yards in each of their last 4 games.

At the same time, the Cardinals offer no threat of scoring when they have the ball. Ball State has scored 17 or fewer points in every single MAC game this season and Buffalo is no slouch defensively, as they have held 7 of their 10 opponents to 24 or less points. Give me the Bulls -20.5!

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Miami-OH -3) 

My money is on the RedHawks here at what I feel is a great line to back them given the circumstances. Miami (OH) is sitting at 4-6 and need to win their final 2 games to become bowl eligible. Given they got a gimmie win on deck against a horrible Ball State team, it really all comes down to this game for the RedHawks. That means we are going to get the very best this team has to offer and it only helps that they just recently got back starting quarterback Gus Ragland, who threw 3 TD's in last weeks' 10-point win over Akron, which looks a lot better after what the Zips did to Ohio last night. 

Eastern Michigan is a good team, much better than their 3-7 record, as they have 6 losses by a touchdown or less. The key here is that last week's loss to Central Michigan eliminated them from postseason play and now they have nothing to play for. I just don't see the Eagles matching the intensity of Miami in this one and wouldn't be shocked if this turned into a blowout. Give me the RedHawks -3! 

100* NCAAF *MAC* GAME OF THE YEAR (Ohio -13)

This game is for 1st place in the MAC East. No surprise here to see Ohio listed as the favorite, but by 13 on the road. I think this line is begging for you to take the home dog in this weekday game and it makes me like Ohio that much more. I'm also not buying any talk on the Bobcats suffering a letdown after their huge win over Toledo. This game is for the right to play in the MAC Championship Game. The Bobcats are coming to play. 

I think that's all we need here, as Akron is lucky to be in this spot. Two of their conference wins are against bad teams in Bowling Green and Ball State. They also have two 1-point wins over Buffalo and Western Michigan. Note they are the only team to 56 or more points against Ball State (scored 31) and the only to not win by 40 or more (won by 28). They also only outgained Ball State by 7 total yards . That's the only game against a FBS opponent where they won the yardage battle (ougained by 100 or more in 6 games, 200+ in 3). 

I also think it's important to note that this Ohio team has only gotten better as the season has progressed. Evident by their complete domination of a not just good but great Toledo team in their last game. Prior to that they beat Miami (OH) 45-28, Kent St (48-3) and Bowling Green (48-30). This is also not a fluke, as they were picked to win the division. I think this gets ugly. Give me the Bobcats -13! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Bears -4)

I think a lot of people are going to have a hard time grasping the Bears being a favorite against the Packers, even with Rodgers sidelined. More than anything, I don’t think the public trusts Chicago enough to take advantage of the opportunity.

I’m on the other side of this, as I don’t think the loss of Rodgers is being taken into account enough. It certainly wasn’t in Green Bay’s last two games when they lost at home to the Saints 17-26 as a 4-point dog and then to Detroit as a mere 2.5-point dog at home. Based on what we have seen from backup quarterback Brett Hundley, I would have to lay the points with Chicago in this one.

The Packers simply aren’t as talented as people think, as Rodgers does a really good job of making them look better than they are. Especially on offense, where Green Bay’s offensive line has been stinking it up for years. The Packers have also had a horrible time running the ball, despite defenses having to pay so much respect to Rodgers and his arm. I just think it’s asking a lot of Hundley and this offense to score enough to keep this game competitive against the Bears.

Not a lot was expected of Chicago this season and at 3-5 most just think they are playing up to their potential. While the offense has a long way to go, the defense has been one of the best in the league. Chicago ranks 8th overall in total defense (312 ypg) and are in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. They have been especially stingy at home, where they are given up just 15.7 ppg.

All of this and we haven’t even got into the huge scheduling advantage that the Bears have. With Chicago coming off a bye, they get 13 days to rest up and prepare for the Packers. On the flip side of this, Green Bay has just 5 days to get ready after playing on Monday Night Football.

I also don’t think there’s a ton of hope here for the Packers offense with Hundely. If they were going to figure things out, they would have done so during their bye week leading up to last week’s game against Detroit.

Another thing here is I think we could see the best game from Bears rookie Mitchell Trubisky, who has had to face some really good defenses in his first 4 starts (Vikings, Ravens, Panthers and Saints). Green Bay isn’t a great defensive team, as they are just 25th in the NFL, giving up 357 ypg and have been especially bad on the road, where they are giving up 29.3 ppg. Give me the Bears -4.

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bills +3) 

As well as the Saints have been playing, I think the value here is with Buffalo catching a field goal at home. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring their opponents by 10.5 points/game. Had it not been for that ugly loss to the Jets in prime time last week, I think this would be closer to a pick’em and maybe even have Buffalo favored. Keep in mind the Bills had won 4 of their previous 5 games before the loss.

Another key thing with the performance against New York, you can’t overlook how difficult it is for a lot of these teams to play on the road with that short week of rest and preparation. I don’t think there’s any doubt that’s no where close to an accurate showing of how this team has played. Also, the scheduling aspect now works in their favor, as they get an extra 3 days of rest and time to prepare due to playing on Thursday.

I know New Orleans is 3-1 away from home this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and some lucky breaks like going to Green Bay after they lost Aaron Rodgers to an injury. Historically this Saints team has not been nearly the same team on the road as they have at home and Buffalo can be one of the more difficult places to play, especially this late in the season.

When most people think of the Saints offense the first thing that comes to mind is Drew Brees and the passing attack. However, they have been running the ball effectively this year. I think that’s important to note, as there have been 4 games where they were held to 105 or less yards and in all 4 games they scored 20 or fewer points (2-2 record). On the flip side, they have rushed for 145 or more in their other 4 games and scored 26 or more in all 4 of those.

I believe the Bills are a team that can really make it tough on the Saints rushing attack. Buffalo comes in ranked 8th in the NFL giving up just 94.4 ypg on the ground. They have also held 5 of their 8 opponents to fewer than 80 yards and are giving up just 68 yards/game at home this season.

New Orleans is just 3-12 ATS the last 15 times they came into a game having covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Buffalo on the other hand is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games played in Weeks 10 through 13 and 3-0-1 ATS at home this season. Give me the Bills +3.

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -2)

The Vikings have one of the best records in the NFL at 6-2 and have accomplished this mark with backup quarterback Case Keenum starting the majority of the games. That just goes to tell you have talented and deep this Vikings team is across the board.

I just don’t think they are getting near the respect they deserve coming off their bye. Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare for the Redskins, as well as refresh their bodies and minds for the stretch run. On the flip side of this, you have a Redskins team that just played a very physical game on the road in Seattle, where they really had to grind it out for the win. I just think it’s going to be tough for Washington to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to take down the Vikings. Keep in mind that this is a Redskins team that has just been decimated with injuries here over the last month.

Lets also not overlook just how fortunate a win that was for Washington against the Seahawks. They were outgained on the game by nearly 200 yards and benefited from 3 missed field goals by Seattle kicker Blair Walsh. If he just makes two of those, good chance the Seahawks win that game. I think if the Redskins would have lost, we would be looking at the Vikings laying closer to a field goal.

I also like the matchup here for Minnesota’s offense, which is really the key to their success, as the defense is one of the best in the NFL and will hold the opponent in check more times than not. The Vikings are at their best when they can establish the running game and should be able to do just that against the Redskins. Washington’s run defense has taken a big hit with the recent injuries and have allowed 139.4 yards/game against the run over their last 5.

Lastly, the Redskins are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Give me the Vikings -2.

50* NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Notre Dame -3)

Miami head coach Mark Richt has done an amazing job getting the Hurricanes back in the national spotlight, but I think their perfect season comes to a crashing end on Saturday. In fact, I actually think we are getting some great value here with Notre Dame only laying a field goal.

Not to take anything away from the Hurricanes, who are a really good team, I believe the Irish are an elite team. Whether or not you agree likely depends on how a big a believer you are in Georgia, who handed Notre Dame their only loss of the season. I agree with the playoff committee and feel the Bulldogs are the best team in the country and given it took a late field goal for Georgia to beat Notre Dame 20-19, I feel Notre has to be treated like they are in the same class.

Let’s also not forget the Irish have not just beaten some other great teams, but won convincingly against them. That includes a 38-18 win at Michigan State, 49-14 win at home over USC and a 35-14 win at home over NC State. I don’t feel that Miami is in that same class. The Hurricanes could just as easily be 6-2, as they had miracle wins against both FSU and Georgia Tech. I also don’t think the win over Virginia Tech is as big a statement as others. In fact, I had Miami in that game, and a big reason why was I thought the Hokies were overrated.

I also like the matchup here. As good as Miami has been defensively, they haven’t seen anything close to what they are going to see from an offensive line like they will on Saturday from Notre Dame. This defense has pushed a lot of their opponents around and I think they have a hard time dealing with the fact that it’s them that’s getting pushed around on the field. As for Notre Dame’s defense, it is really good too and they do a really good job of not allowing the big plays and those big plays are really all that’s kept Miami’s offense from blowing this perfect season. Give me Notre Dame -3.

40* BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS BLOWOUT (TCU +7) 

I actually like TCU to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points as some added insurance. There’s several different factors here that make me like the Horned Frogs, but the biggest of them all is only one of these two teams plays defense and that’s TCU. As great as the Sooners win over Oklahoma State looks, they lose that game if the Cowboys have any sort of defense, as Oklahoma’s stop unit gave up 661 total yards, 32 first downs and 52 points in the victory.

While TCU has scored just 31-points in their last two games combined, it’s came against two of the better defensive teams in the Big 12 in Texas and Iowa State. Don’t let that fool you into thinking this team can’t produce on the offensive side of the ball. The Horned Frogs are still averaging a healthy 35.8 ppg and are more than capable of exposing this Oklahoma defense.

I also think it’s important to point out that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are two very similar teams and we have already seen TCU make easy work of the Cowboys on the road. The Horned Frogs defeated Oklahoma State 44-31 on the road back in late September and it really wasn’t that close, as TCU had a 37-17 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.

As for the Horned Frogs defense, they are the exact opposite of what you have grown to see from Big 12 teams. TCU is giving up just 13.9 ppg, which is the 6th best mark in the country. They also rank 6th in total defense, allowing just 284.1 ppg. In their last 4 games they have allowed a whopping 27 points. Oklahoma hasn’t allowed fewer than 24 points in a single Big 12 game.

You don’t normally think of teams suffering a letdown in a game of this magnitude, but I think it’s asking a lot out of the Sooners to bounce back from that emotional roller-coaster win last week against their in-state rivals. I know they are at home, but it reminds me a lot of the spot Ohio State was just in this past week and their horrible showing against Iowa after their emotional win over Penn State.

Another thing I love here is just how little respect TCU is getting in this matchup and don’t think for a second they don’t know they are a touchdown dog here. Keep in mind that Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson has got his teams to play well in this role, as TCU is 30-19 ATS under Patterson when listed as an underdog. Horned Frogs are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me TCU +7!

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR Mississippi St +14

I’m anticipating the public will be all over Alabama in this one, but my money is on the Bulldogs catching two touchdowns at home. I know Mississippi State had a couple of clunkers earlier this season against two of the top SEC teams in Georgia and Auburn, losing 31-3 to the Bulldogs and 49-10 to the Tigers. The big reason I’m not investing a ton into those games is they both came on the road and Mississippi State has righted the ship with 4 straight wins, including an impressive 35-14 victory at Texas A&M prior to their game against UMass.

As for the poor showing against the Minutemen, that was to be expected off that big game against the Aggies and knowing they had Alabama at home on deck. I expect the very best the Bulldogs have to offer, as I don’t think there’s any doubt that this team believes they can knock off the Crimson Tide.

The biggest factor here for Mississippi State is that this is a home night game in prime time on ESPN. The cow bells will be out in full force, as the atmosphere at Davis Wade Stadium is going to be electric. I believe that gives the Bulldogs a fighting chance to win the game. It also doesn’t hurt that they are catching Alabama off their huge showdown last week at LSU. It’s the perfect spot for Mississippi State to pick off the SEC frontrunners.

I also like the matchup here for the Bulldogs, as they have the talent, depth and playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, much like LSU, to give this Alabama offense fits. As we saw last week against the Tigers (only 116 rushing yards), if you can keep the Crimson Tide from running at will, you can keep their entire offense in check.

I’m not expecting a ton of fireworks from the Mississippi State offense against this top notch Alabama defense, but I think they can score enough to keep this within the number. If there’s been a weakness for the Crimson Tide defense under Saban, it’s mobile quarterbacks that can extend plays with their legs. The Bulldogs have one of the better dual-threat QB’s in the country in Nick Fitzgerald, who leads the team in rushing with 801 yards and has also scored a team-high 12 rushing touchdowns. Give me the Bulldogs +14!

50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Georgia Tech +3)

When you get to this late in the season, you have to pay attention to what’s left for teams to play for. I believe it’s critical when handicapping this matchup and has the Yellow Jackets showing some great value here as a home dog.

Georgia Tech is sitting at 4-4 on the season and if they want to become bowl eligible, they have to win 2 of their last 3. Given one of those is a likely loss to in-state rival Georgia, this game against the Hokies is one they absolutely have to have. I think playing an extra game means something to Paul Johnson and his players. I expect a big time effort here from the Yellow Jackets at home against one of their Coastal rivals.

The same motivation simply isn’t there for Virginia Tech. While you could say the Hokies are going to be motivated for revenge from last year’s loss to Georgia Tech, I’m not buying it. Last week’s game against Miami was for 1st place in the Coastal Division. Not only did Va Tech lose, but the defeat eliminated them from any chance of defending their division title. That’s a tough pill to swallow and either way I would have expected some kind of letdown here after the big game against the Hurricanes.

I think it only makes matters worse for Virginia Tech that they have to go up against the triple-option attack of Georgia Tech, which is very difficult to prepare for on a short week of rest. To stop the option you have to be 100% locked in and have a very discipline approach. I just have a hard time seeing the Hokies players being fully invested in practice this week. At the same time, Va Tech’s defense has had their struggles against the run away from home, as they are allowing 4.7 yards/carry on the road. The Yellow Jackets are average 5.5 yards/carry on the season. Nearly 1.2 yards more per carry than what their opponents typically allow and that average climbs to 6.0 yards/carry at home.

Lastly, this Georgia Tech defense is no joke. While they gave up 40 last week at Virginia, they held the Cavaliers to just 357 total yards and 15 first downs. Virginia scored a ton of points off great field position and also had a 92-yard kickoff return for a TD. When facing top tier defenses the Hokies have struggled to put up points. Also, if you take away their 59-point outburst against UNC, they have averaged just 18.5 ppg in ACC play. Give me the Yellow Jackets +3.

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Duke -2.5)

It's time to put up or shut up for the Blue Devils, who at 4-5 need to win 2 of their final 3 games to get back to a bowl after missing out on postseason play a year ago. It looked like they would get to 6 wins without a problem, as they started the season 4-0, but have since dropped 5 straight.

I believe that has the Blue Devils way undervalued here in a very favorable matchup with Army. Duke has had a ton of success going up against the triple-option playing in the same division as Georgia Tech. They also have faced this Army team each of the last two years. They held the Black Knights to just 3 points in 2015 and 6 points last year. Their defense is even better against the run this season than it was last year, plus they have had two full weeks to prepare for the option coming off of their bye. 

Army is setting at 7-2 and you might think there's a lot to play for, but that's not really the case, as they have already accepted a bowl bid to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. The only thing that really matters to them the rest of the regular-season is the finale against Navy. On top of that, they just played another armed forces rival last week in Air Force, which they upset on the road 21-0.

Simply put, this game means a heck of a lot more to the Blue Devils than it does the Black Knights and we are getting great value with this short number. Note that Duke is 13-4 ATS under Cutcliffe in road games off a bye. Give me the Blue Devils -2.5! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa St +7)

I was on the Cyclones as a 7-point dog in their 31-13 blowout win on the road against Texas Tech and again the next week when they beat TCU at home 14-7 as a 7-point dog. I laid off ISU in last week's game at West Virginia and it was the right call, as they failed to cover in a 16-20 loss. I'm jumping right back on the Cyclones bandwagon as they again are catching a touchdown, this time at home against Oklahoma St. 

This isn't just a play against the Cowboys off that crushing loss at home last week to Oklahoma, but it's definitely a big factor into this decision. That loss dropped Oklahoma State to 4-2 in the Big 12 and likely out of contention for the Big 12 title game. Regardless of what happens in Saturday's game between TCU and Oklahoma, the loser would still be 5-2 in league play and would hold the tie-breaker over the Cowboys. They would need whoever loses that game to lose again and that's just unlikely to happen. 

At the same time, this Iowa State team is the real deal, as Matt Campbell has turned this program around faster than anyone could have imagined. There's something special going on offensively behind senior walk-on QB Kyle Kempt and the defense is right there with Texas and TCU as the best in the league. Since limiting Oklahoma to 7-points in the 2nd half of their upset win in Norman, the Cyclones have held each of their last 4 opponents to 20 or less. 

As good as the Cowboys offense is, they struggled mightily against TCU and Texas. They ended up with 31 against the Horned Frogs, but had just 17 before a couple of late scores and that was at home. They only had 13-points on the road against the Long Horns. I think the defense steps up again and ISU wins this one outright. Give me the Cyclones +7! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Stanford +6.5) 

You can never underestimate the advantage that these teams have playing at home in a prime time weekday game. Even more so when it's against a highly ranked opponent like we have here with Stanford hosting Washington. To a lot of people this line isn't going to look like enough and will back the Huskies, but I actually think the Cardinal win this game outright. 

Stanford has had this game circled on the calendar ever since the schedule was released, as they have not forgot about the embarrassing 44-6 loss they suffered at the hands of these Huskies last year. I also think the Cardinal are a lot better than people think. I know they barely beat Oregon State and just lost at Washington state, but star running back Bryce Love didn't play against the Beavers and wasn't quite back to 100% against the Cougars. I believe he's going to be back to elite form here and he's the type of talent that can have success even against a top tier defense like Washington. 

This spot reminds me a lot of when USC had to go on the road earlier this season and face Washington State on a Friday night. The Cougars came away with the upset and I like Stanford to do the same. Note the Cardinal are a perfect 3-0 at home this season, improving their record to 55-14 at home going back to the 2007 season. They are also 6-0 ATS since 2005 as a home dog. Give me Stanford +6.5! 

40* NFL (SEA/ARZ) TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Seahawks -6) 

I'm rolling the dice with Seattle in this one, even though the road team is at a big disadvantage in these Thursday night games. Key here is the Seahawks have a strong track record in these Thursday games under head coach Pete Carroll, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in this spot. Seattle has also been a great team to back when coming off a loss, as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when coming off defeat.

At the same time, I just don’t trust this Arizona team at all right now. Getting a road win over the 49ers is nothing to get excited about, as San Francisco hasn’t won a game all season. The biggest concern with the Cardinals being the loss of starting quarterback Carson Palmer, who suffered a season-ending injury in their previous game against the Rams, which they lost 0-33.

Drew Stanton went just 5 of 14 in relief of Palmer against LA. While he threw for 200 yards against the 49ers, he completed just 50% of his attempts. The biggest thing that stands out to me in that game against San Francisco, is the offense leaned heavily on Adrian Peterson, who carried it 37 times for 159 yards. That’s great, but you have to wonder just how much AP will have left in the tank on a short week of rest. At the same time, they will be going up against a much better defense in Seattle, who is giving up just 18.6 ppg and will load up the box to try and force Stanton to beat them with his arm.

I also think this Arizona defense could be in for a long day, as they have not fared well against the better teams they have faced. In fact, they have allowed a combined 38 points in 3 games against the 49ers (twice) and Colts. In every other game they have allowed at least 28 points, giving up 30 or more 5 different times.

It’s no secret that Seattle isn’t as good on the road as they are at home, but at the same time the Cardinals are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games. Arizona is also a mere 1-6 in their last 7 off a SU win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing less than 15 points. Give me the Seahawks -6!

40* NCAAF Thurs Night ATS NO BRAINER (Appalachian St -17.5)

I'm willing to lay the big number here with the Mountaineers at home against Georgia Southern. You have to sometimes worry about teams overlooking an opponent like the Eagles, who are winless on the season at 0-8, but that's not a concern for this one. Appalachian State is going to be a pissed off bunch and completely locked in after losing their last two games. If they want any hope of earning at least a share of the Sun Belt title they must win out and I believe it starts with a lopsided victory tonight. 

The key here is the Mountaineers should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Appalachian State comes in averaging 4.9 yards/carry on the ground with an even better 5.6 average at home. Georgia Southern's defense is giving up 5.3 yards/carry on the season and a ridiculous 6.9 yards/carry on the road. On the flip side of this, don't be fooled by the Eagles averaging 204 rushing yards/game. They have no choice to run because they can't throw and are actually only averaging 3.8 yards/carry. Mountaineers are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry at home and should be able to top that knowing Georgia Southern can't throw (only average 106 passing yards/game). Give me Appalachian State -17.5! 

40* NCAAF WEDNESDAY MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (E. Michigan -2) 

I don’t think this line is going to make a whole lot of sense to a lot of people. Central Michigan is 3-2 inside conference play and fresh off a big upset win on the road over one of the top teams in the MAC in Western Michigan. Why would they be getting points at home against a Eastern Michigan team that is just 3-6 overall and just won their first conference game of the season?

Any time you have a line that looks wrong, it’s usually for a good reason. Especially this late in the season when the books are locked in on every team. However, the line isn’t the only reason I would lean towards taking the Eagles in this matchup. I actually agree with the books here and see Eastern Michigan as the better team.

If you take a closer look at the Eagles resume to this point, you will quickly see their record could look a heck of lot different if they caught a few breaks in close games. It’s bad enough to lose a two or three games by a touchdown or less. All 6 of Eastern Michigan’s defeats this year have come by 7 or less points, including 3 by 3 or less. They are 1-6 in games this season decided by a touchdown or less, while Central Michigan has caught all the breaks with a 3-0 record in these close games.

I also feel like this is a great matchup for the Eagles offensively. Eastern Michigan has a top tier passing attack behind senior Brogan Roback, which comes in ranked 30th in the nation at 276.8 ypg. Where they have struggled is on the ground, as they are 122nd at 108.9 ypg. That lack of balance has cost them in a lot of close games this year. They should be able to have a balanced attack here, as the Chippewas are 109th in the country vs the run, giving up 205.8 ypg. They allowed 300 or more yards on the ground for the third time this season last week against Northern Illinois.

This is also a much better Eagles defense than it gets credit for and that’s saying something, as they come in allowing just 20.3 ppg. What’s so impressive about that is their opponents on average are scoring 28.7 ppg. In comparison, Central Michigan is allowing 27.1 ppg against teams who on average put up 28.7 ppg.

Lastly, I like the spot here for Eastern Michigan, who need to win out to become bowl eligible. Central Michigan on the other hand needs to win just 1 of their final 3 to get to the 6-win mark and I think they are in a prime letdown spot here after the huge comeback win over their rivals last week. Give me the Eagles -2.

40* NCAAF TUES. NIGHT MAC ATS BLOWOUT (Miami-OH -6.5) 

I'll take my chances on the RedHawks winning at home by at least a touchdown on Tuesday against Akron. This line will likely surprise a lot of people, as the Zips are tied on top the MAC East division at 4-1, while Miami is just 2-3 in conference play. That right there tells you how misleading the books thinks the records are. 

Akron has done an outstanding job of winning ugly. The Zips are only averaging 332.8 ypg inside conference play, while giving up 452.6 ypg. To be outgained on average by roughly 120 ypg is more indicative of a 1-4 team than 4-1. In comparison, Miami is putting up 427.6 ypg and allowing just 378.4 ypg.

Unless the Zips catch all the break again, I think this one will turn into a blowout and easy cover for the RedHawks, who are going to be laying everything on the line here, as they need to win out to become bowl eligible. Give me Miami (OH) -6.5! 

40* LIONS/PACKERS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Lions -2)

I'll take the bait here with Detroit, as I'm just not buying the Packers being much of a threat the rest of the way without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. I don't think there's any QB in the league that means more to their team than Rodgers.

The offense only managed 227 yards in the game against the Vikings, where Rodgers suffered that season-ending injury in the 1st quarter. They then totaled just 260 yards in their next game at home against the Saints, where they were outgunned by 225 yards. In those two games, backup Brett Hundley completed just 51.7% of his attempts with 1 TD to 4 interceptions.

Green Bay has no choice but to rely on their rushing attack and Detroit knows that. It also plays into the strength of the Lions defense, which ranks 6th in the league, giving up just 91.6 ypg on the ground (have only allowed more than 90 yards twice this season). I'll take my chances with Stafford and the Lions offense doing enough to win here by a field goal. Give me the Lions -2! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bucs +7)

I'll take Tampa Bay catching a touchdown in this one, as I think we are getting a great price to back the Buccaneers here, due to their recent struggles and the Saints coming in having won and covered each of their last 5. I know the records say different, but I just don’t think there’s as big of a gap in talent here as the line would suggest. Keep in mind that Tampa was only a 3-point dog in last year’s visit to the Superdome.

As bad as Tampa Bay was on offense last week against the Panthers, I like their chances of having success on that side of the ball against the Saints. While New Orleans has been playing better defense of late, a big reason for that is who they have played. During their 5-game winning streak they have faced the Panthers, Dolphins, Bears and Packers without Aaron Rodgers. The lone decent offense they faced during this stretch was the Lions and they gave up 38 points to Detroit. It’s also worth noting that prior to last week’s game, Tampa had scored 30+ in each of their previous two games.

There’s also encouraging news regarding Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston, who ailing right shoulder has certainly played a role in the teams struggles. He was on the field practicing Wednesday, which is something he wasn’t able to do the past two weeks.

Something to keep in mind with the Saints and their high-powered offense is they just lost starting right guard Larry Warford. New Orleans is already down starting right tackle Zach Streif. Injuries up front can really derail an offense and I that can only help the Bucs defense keep Brees and company in check.

Tampa Bay is an encouraging 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 and the Saints are a dismal 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games when they come in having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. The Bucs are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Bucs +7! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -4)

I think you have to lay the points here with the Rams on the road, as I just don’t know how you trust this Giants team right now. I know New York hasn’t even played half of their schedule, but there’s just not a lot to play for and clearly that’s the thought process of some of the players. Top corner Janoris Jenkins has been suspended due to failing to show on time following the time off given during the bye week.

It would be one thing if the Giants were in a division that was up for grabs and had all their key pieces on the field, but neither of those things is the case. New York has zero chance of winning the NFC East with the Eagles sitting on top the division at 7-1. Add in the loss of star wide out Odell Beckham Jr, among several other key injuries on offense and I just don’t see how the players can convince themselves that there’s something to play for.

The Rams on the other hand are a team on the rise and haven’t enjoyed enough success in the past to let their hot start get to their heads. This team is trying to accomplish something special. The can only imagine how much different the attitude and level of focus has been in LA’s locker room compared to New York’s.

On top of all that, the Rams are without a doubt the better team in this matchup. The offense has transformed into one of the best in the league under McVay. LA is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 30.3 ppg and 9th in total offense at 360 ypg. Another promising sign with this team is the defense is starting to catch up to the offense. It wasn’t pretty early on under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but LA has allowed just 33 points over their last 3 games combined. They should have no problem shutting down an anemic Giants offense.

You also have to like how the Rams have already proven the ability to win on the road. All 4 wins during their current 4-1 stretch have come away from home. I think LA has no problem winning here by at least a touchdown and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they ran away with this thing early. Give me the Rams -4! 

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS SHOCKER (USC -7)

I'll be the first to admit that I didn't foresee USC coming out and playing as well as they did last week on the road against Arizona State after that crushing loss to Notre Dame the previous week, which all but eliminated them from the playoff picture. If they are going to show in that spot, I see no reason not to expect a huge effort here from the Trojans at home against Arizona, as these two teams sit on top the Pac-12 South with just 1-loss in conference play. 

No longer having to deal with the pressure of winning the national championship brought out the best in this team and I also think we saw a pissed off Sam Darnold in that game against Arizona State, as there's been all kinds of people doubting his ability with USC not living up to their potential. I think he has a big final few games of the season and helps the Trojans make easy work of a good but not great Arizona team at home. Give me USC -7! 

50* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Arizona State -3)

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here based on last week's results of both of these teams. Colorado had one of their best games of the season in a 44-28 win at home against Cal, while the Sun Devils are off one of their worst performance of the season in a 17-48 home loss to USC. I think how well the Trojans came out after that ugly loss to Notre Dame surprised ASU, as a lot of people were calling for USC to struggle with their playoff hopes all but crushed. 

Prior to the loss to the Trojans, the Sun Devils had been playing some of their best football of the season, which included 4 straight covers as a double-digit dog, three of which they won outright, including that 13-7 win at home over Washington. My money is on Arizona State to bounce back in a big way here in a prime time night game at home against what I feel is a below-average Colorado team. 

That win over Cal was only the second in the last 6 games for the Buffaloes and the other was against the worst team in the Pac-12 in Oregon State and they barely won that 36-33. In their two games against top tier teams from the conference they were no match, losing by 27 at home to Washington and 28 at Washington State. While ASU isn't quite on that level, they should have no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. Give me the Sun Devils -3! 

40* NCAAF BIG MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Michigan -15)

I don't think many will be running to the ticket window to back the Wolverines, but I see some hidden value here with Michigan at home against the Gophers. The one thing that's been holding back the Wolverines is their offense, but I don't think that's going to be the case for long. Last week against Rutgers Jim Harbaugh finally went with red-shirt freshman quarterback Brandon Peters and the offense looked completely different with him under center. I think the move gives new life to this team and will have the Big House rocking under the lights Saturday. 

Michigan's defense is still one of the best in the country, ranking 8th against the run (104.1 ypg) and 2nd against the pass (151.4 ypg). They have had to shoulder the load and it can be hard on a defense to play up to their full potential when they don't have a lot of confidence in the offenses ability to put up points.

I think the QB switch also has a big positive impact on them and this Minnesota offense is one they can shutdown. The Gophers are 11th in total offense and offer little to no threat of a passing game. I see things spiraling out of control pretty quickly and wouldn't be surprised if they had a couple costly turnovers that put this one well out of reach early. Give me the Wolverines -15! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS ENFORCER (Miami +3)

All the Hurricanes have heard this week in practice is how their 7-0 start isn't good enough and that they have been fortunate to win two of their games. I like that this team has shown the ability to win close games, especially since we are getting a field goal with them at home in a prime time night game. I expect Miami to come out with a chip on their shoulder and put together one of their best performances of the season. 

Virginia Tech is a good team, but in their only game against a top tier opponent in Clemson they were completely outmatched and let's not forget that was a prime time home game for the Hokies.

Much like they did against Clemson, I think Va Tech is going to have to ask too much of their red-shirt freshman QB in Joshua Jackson. I think Jackson and the Hokies find it hard to move the ball against the speed and athleticism of this Hurricanes defense. Give me Miami +3! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas +7)

When Tom Herman is getting points you have to roll the dice and back his team. Going back to his days as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State, the team he's coached has gone a perfect 14-0 ATS when listed as an underdog and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark with the Longhorns this season. 

I also love the fact that Texas is coming in with serious revenge, as they have lost each of the last 3 in the series. TCU on the other hand is a team I think is going to struggle to pick themselves off the mat after last week's crushing 7-14 loss to Iowa State, which pretty much derailed any hopes they had of making the playoffs. 

In that game against the Cyclones, who have been playing great defense dating back to the 2nd half against Oklahoma, TCU's offense was non existent and when they did get into ISU territory, starting quarterback Kenny Hill had two costly turnovers. His confidence has to be shattered and it's not going to get any easier for him against Texas.

Hill is going to have to make plays, as TCU figures to have a tough time moving the ball on the ground against this Longhorns run defense, which is one of the best in the country, allowing just 71 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry at home. If Hill struggles like I think he will, this could get ugly. Give me the Longhorns +7! 

50* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Clemson -7)

I'll take my chances here with Clemson laying just a touchdown against rival NC State. I think this Tigers team is being greatly undervalued after the loss to Syracuse, where they lost their quarterback midway through the game. This is still the same team that whooped up some really good teams and if not for horrible weather they would have beat Georgia Tech by a lot more than 14 last week. 

NC State is a great story and I can understand why they are getting some respect, I just don't think they are good as people think. That certainly appeared to be true in last week's 14-35 loss to Notre Dame, who was primed for picking off after that big game against USC the week before. That's really the only elite team they have played so far. I see this one playing out very similar to that of the game last week against the Irish, where the offense struggles to put up points and the defense has their hands full against top tier talent on the other side. 

Under head coach Dave Doeren the Wolf Pack are just 2-9 ATS in 11 home games played in the 2nd half of the season, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing their previous on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after playing their previous two games on the road. Give me the Tigers -7! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Michigan State +9.5)

Penn State can say all they want about how they aren't going to let the Ohio State loss derail the rest of the season. I'm not buying it. They know just like we do that the loss to the Buckeyes all but ended any hope they had of making the playoffs and playing for a national championship, as they would need Ohio State to not just lose one but two games to sneak back into the picture as the Big Ten champs. 

That's going to make it near impossible for the Nittany Lions to bring the right mindset on the road after that crushing loss to the Buckeyes. At the same time, I don't think Michigan State is getting near the respect they deserve. This is one of the better teams in the country that no one is talking about and still have a ton to play for. In fact, if they win out, which would include a win at Ohio State next week, they would take home the Big Ten East title. 

This is a line I would have liked the Spartans at even if Penn State would have beat Ohio State and weren't in such a horrible spot. Given the situation, I think Michigan State should be favored or at worse getting no more than 3 points. That makes this an easy play on the home dog. Give me the Spartans +9.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Purdue -14)

I was on the wrong end of the bad beat last week with Purdue, but that’s not going to keep me from laying the two touchdowns with the Boilermakers at home on Saturday. Purdue is so much better than what they have shown the last few weeks and this feels like the perfect spot for them to get back on track.

Illinois is the worst team in the Big Ten and are in a prime letdown spot off that home game against the Badgers. The Fighting Illini are 0-3 on the road, losing by an average of 20 ppg. They just don’t have the offensive fire-power to be competitive away from home. Illinois hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a single game and are averaging just 17.3 ppg on the season.

I think Purdue can hold them well below their average, as the Boilermakers are a lot better defensively than they get credit for. Purdue is holding teams roughly 10 points under their season average. Illinois on the other hand is allowing their opponents to score 10 points more than what they average when on the road. If that holds true, we are looking at final here of roughly 34-7. That’s more than enough to cover the 14-point spread.

There’s several key trends in play here that back a fade of Illinois in this spot. The Fighting Illini are a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when they come in having lost 5 or more games in a row and have lost in this spot by more than 20 ppg. Illinois is also 15-31 ATS in their last 46 off a double-digit loss at home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Purdue on the other hand is a solid 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread. Give me Purdue -14! 

40* NCAAF BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Vanderbilt -9.5)

I got no problem backing the Commodores at home at this price. Vanderbilt should have zero problem winning by double-digits here against what I feel is one of the most overrated teams in the country in Western Kentucky. 

The Hilltoppers went 23-5 the previous two seasons under previous head coach Jeff Brohm, but he left the cupboard empty with just 10 returning starters and Brohm was such a big part in why they were so good. Just look at how much better Purdue is already in his first year there.

WKU does come in with a winning record at 5-3, including a 4-1 record over their last 5, but their wins have come against Eastern Kentucky, Ball State, UTEP, Charlotte and Old Dominion. Ball State is atrocious and the 3 teams they have beat inside C-USA are a combined 3-21 on the year. They also lost by 17 on the road against Illinois, who is the worst team in the Big Ten and no where close to as good as Vanderbilt. 

The Commodores would be a much bigger favorite if they weren't coming into this game having lost 5 straight with a 0-4-1 ATS mark during this stretch. The thing is, 3 of those losses came on the road and the other two at home were against Alabama and Georgia. This team can still make a bowl with home games against Kentucky and Missouri, plus a game at Tennessee left on the schedule. I look for Vandy to take out their frustration on an inferior opponent. Give me the Commodores -9.5! 

50* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Florida +3.5)

I love teams in this spot, where everything looks lost after they just fired their head coach and think we are getting great value on top of it, as I think the Gators should be favored regardless of the circumstances. Either way, we can bank on a great effort here from Florida in the first game under interim head coach Randy Shannon. 

One of things that Shannon did right away is name former Notre Dame quarterback (grad transfer) Malik Zaire the starting QB. I'm not sure what he did to piss off McElwain, but I think he should have been the starter from the start. I think he gives new life to a Florida offense that desperately needs a spark. 

It doesn't hurt that it's coming against a horrible Missouri defense that ranks 98th against the run (192.4 ypg) and 103rd against the pass (260.6 ypg). I also think the Tigers defense will be in for a long day here against a really good Gators defense that simply had a bad game last time out against Georgia. Prior to giving up 42 to Bulldogs, they had held been playing really well and we have seen this Missouri offense struggle against worse defense, including a 3-point effort at home to Purdue. 

Florida is 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and Missouri is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 14 or fewer points in their previous game. Give me the Gators +3.5!