*3 Star Play Under* Maryland-Eastern Shore is dreadful on offense. They use up nearly the entire shot clock and then put up a lot of bad contested midrange jumpers. Eastern Shore is actually very solid on defense though. They should be able to hold down a Binghamton team that hasn't been able to score on non Division I opponents either. 

Binghamton prefers a slow pace and they should look good defensively against Maryland-Eastern Shore.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys do play very fast, but the Cowboys are better on defense than offense. Oklahoma State is an aggressive defense that contests shots very well. 

Nicholls State has been very solid on defense this year. They held Kentucky to only 77 points in the first game of the season. They had just one poor defensive showing against a really good Murray State offense on the road.

Nicholls is a very poor shooting team. They are likely going to struggle to get open looks against OK State. Nicholls will try to slow the pace here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers and Evansville Purple Aces meet in the Virgin Islands on Friday night. This is a neutral court early season tournament and those in general have trended to the under. 

This specific site has trended even more strongly toward the under with some commenting in the past that it has a difficult shooting backdrop.

Oregon State and Evansville both prefer to walk it up and play very slowly. I think it would take a hot shooting night to get over this total. I think this is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits aren't playing the same way they did in the past. South Dakota State is playing much slower than they did in the past. They aren't as good of a shooting team from outside. They are also turning the ball over on offense too much and hurting themselves efficiency wise. 

South Dakota State is pretty good on defense. They were beaten by the Oregon offense, but Oregon has a good offense and they'll make a lot of defenses look bad. Georgia State is likely to struggle here. The Panthers don't move away from the ball well, and their stagnant sets on offense are likely to burn the clock down a lot.

Georgia State has been an under machine this year. Their coach said they would change their style of play in the offseason, and they have thus far. I don't think the oddsmakers have caught up yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tulsa's Coach Konkol talked in the offseason about changing the style of this team. He thought they had been too dependent on their offense and wanted to change the makeup of the team a bit. Tulsa has played some very good offenses in the early going. Now, they get to play Austin Peay who has the weakest offense they have played thus far.

Austin Peay is 314th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Governors are a scrappy defense that forces a bunch of turnovers and has a good shot blocker in Marshall down in the paint. 

This should be a hard fought game and I think this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints have been tremendous at controlling the pace this year. Siena has played Albany the last two seasons and both games went under this total. Albany has focused on defense this year and slowed things down, so I think this total is set too high. I look for a lot of halfcourt basketball here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are a strong defensive team under Coach John Dunne. His teams are always really hard workers on the defensive end. They will force a lot of turnovers and the vast majority of shots very tough looks. Marist also slows the game down in a big way. Marist's best scorer from last year transferred to Colorado State, so their offense has less upside now.

Army isn't a very good team, but I think their defensive numbers are skewed based on who they have played thus far. Marist is the weakest offense they have faced yet.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars have the best defense in the country. Houston is accustomed to absolutely locking down offenses that are lower levels. Rider is one of the bottom 50 or 60 teams in the entire country. Houston should lock them down in a big way here. 

Rider plays at such a slow pace, and Houston prefers to play that way as well. This could be a game played to 60 possessions or lower.

Kelvin Sampson's teams are 15-1 to the under as a home favorite of 25 points or more. They are a massive favorite here, and I think they hold Rider to an extremely low number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights have been throwing in the three point jumpers at a nearly 50% clip. That can't continue in the long run. They are first in 3 point FG% this season. Kugel is 16/28 from long range, and he shot 33% on 120 attempts last year, so regression is likely to hit soon.

Pitt is a slow it down defensive team, and if you have one team playing that way it is hard to eclipse this high of a total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are slowing the pace down in a big way this year. Most of the teams LIU has played this season have been fast paced, and I think that has skewed their overall season tempo numbers quite a bit. 

LIU isn't a great shooting team, and they do get after it on the defensive end. I think the efficiency numbers are pretty low on offense in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cornell and Colgate are rivals thanks to their close proximity to each other in central New York. 

Five of the last six times these two teams have played the game has gone under the total. This is easily the highest total there has been in those matchups too.

Colgate will try hard to slow the game down. They aren't the same strong shooting team they were a few short years ago.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams both rank in the bottom 35% or so nationally in pace of play. I think the tempo should be relatively slow. 

Look at the teams FGCU has played- Illinois (fast and great on offense), GA Southern (extremely fast), and Chattanooga (great offense). Look at the teams Samford has played and the majority of them are fast paced offenses too.

I think this number is inflated based on who they have played thus far. The two teams should play to a pace of 66 or 67 possessions which means it will take very hot shooting to get to the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Tech Bulldogs have been a really good defensive team and an under type team the last few years. LA Tech once again has several very good shot blockers. They are lacking outside shooters on the offensive end. LA Tech is typically good at controlling the pace. They have got their pace in both of their Division I games so far this season.

Indiana State has slowed down so far this season. They had a low scoring contest against SIU Edwardsville before being blasted by Duke. This LA Tech offense is a huge step down from Duke.

I like LA Tech to slow this thing down and keep it under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns have been very good on defense so far this year. Texas is 22nd in defensive efficiency and 30th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Longhorns have been inconsistent shooting the basketball.

Rider is the third slowest paced team in the nation. The Broncos will be walking it up the court the entire night. They could only score 53 points against Virginia and 53 points against Rutgers too. I think the Texas defense is likely to overwhelm them here.

Texas is laying a huge number here for good reason. I think they slow things down late and it stays under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling Tigers aren't going to keep hitting more than 44% of their 3 point jumpers all year long. I don't know exactly when regression will hit, but it is coming. Grambling plays at a relatively slow pace, and Grambling turns the ball over a bunch. They'll waste a lot of possessions.

San Diego isn't playing as quickly as they normally do. I suspect they'll speed up some, but they are shooting 47.7% from 3 point range and that isn't sustainable in the long run either.

Neither of these teams attack the basket and get to the line all that much. This total has been inflated by the hot shooting.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Providence haven't been very good on defense this year. Kim English has been known as a defensive-minded guy in the past. After last game, English was quoted as saying he is going to change up the practices and focus heavily on defense because he is unhappy with the defensive efforts out of his team.

New Hampshire is one of the weakest offenses in the country, so there is a real opportunity here for Providence to turn things around on defense. New Hampshire also plays very slowly and almost never gets to the free throw line. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers made it a goal in the offseason to get better on the defensive end. The coaching staff no longer wanted to push the pace to the extreme and try to win those high scoring shootouts. Georgia State doesn't have many good shooters on this team either. Georgia State has only scored 49, 64, and 61 points in their first three games against Division I opponents. They are 260th in average possession length, so they are slowing the game down.

Arizona State has gotten better on defense the last few seasons, but their offense has tailed off a bit. Bobby Hurley's team is heading out to Hawaii right after this game to play on Thursday. They play in the Maui Invitational this season. 

Arizona State actually played pretty well defensively against Gonzaga for the majority of the game. Gonzaga's offense is a machine, and they only had 54 points with 10 minutes left in that game. 

Hurley's teams have trended toward the under in the large favorite role.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois State Redbirds have played three games, and all three of their opponents rank in the top 80 in the country in tempo. Illinois State prefers to play a slow halfcourt style of game, and they are finally up against an opponent who wants to play that same way.

Long Beach State is a bottom 75 tempo type of team. The 49ers severely lack in scoring firepower. They turn the ball over a bunch too. 

This total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys do play fast, but they are far better on defense than offense. Corpus Christi is slowing down the pace a lot from a year ago. This total is too high unless they shoot lights out.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I view Maine as a very good under team with their style of play. Maine plays at a slow pace, and they are a tough defensive team. Maine had several good outside shooters last year, but they lost most of them to graduation.

Quinnipiac does play pretty fast, but they have slowed down a touch from last year, and they are good on defense as well.

These two played last year and it was 58-55. I don't think this one will be that low, but I like it to stay under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves have typically been a very good defensive team. They were bad on defense last game and I expect them to come out much better on defense here. These are two teams who play around an average pace. Bradley graduated many of their top shooters from outside from last year. San Francisco lost its top couple guys too. Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds have played at a very slow pace this year. Loyola Maryland is likely to do their best to slow this game down to a halt. Stonehill is a below average paced team. Stonehill also played last night. This is a Stonehill team that has struggled badly to score the last few seasons, and they should do the same again this year.

This is a neutral court game which is helpful too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles are an extremely inefficient offense. They struggle badly with turnovers. Coppin State relies on getting to the line to score, and South Alabama has been one of the best teams in the country at defending without fouling. 

South Alabama's zone defense should really bother Coppin State. South Alabama forces teams to hit outside jumpers, and Coppin State has been terrible from 3 point range for the last few seasons. 

A slow pace and an early game at a neutral site too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mike Bibby is the new coach at Sacramento State, and he spent the offseason working hard to get his team in shape to push the pace and try to outrun the opposition. Sacramento State will show some full court pressure and I would expect UC Davis to be able to get in the bonus. UC Davis is aggressive each year, and they usually make a lot of trips to the line.

Sacramento State is giving up tons of open looks from long range so far this season. The Hornets are learning a new defense, and it should take some time for them to be good on that end of the floor.

I expect a quick pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks may have the worst offense in the country. They are at least bottom five. They reached 52 in overtime against GA Tech. They scored a ridiculously low 29 points against Georgia. They scored 50 against Nebraska by scoring 26 points in the last 11 minutes of the game.

Creighton is typically a below average tempo team. The Blue Jays are always great at defending without fouling too. They will be very good on offense, but they are down a tick from the last couple years with all the key losses. 

Creighton coasts to a large lead and slows the pace down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers played the Jacksonville State Gamecocks early last year and Jacksonville State won 71-53. That game was played to a really slow pace of just 58 possessions. 

I think both teams prefer to play at a slow pace, and now they get the perfect opponent to play slowly against. 

Coastal Carolina has played two very fast paced teams in the first two games, and I think that has propped this total up a bit.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Two teams who are both good at grabbing defensive rebounds, and they typically don't foul very much. That's crucial when looking at an under, especially in any kind of relatively competitive game.

Furman has slowed their pace down a lot the last couple games. It doesn't appear the Paladins want to run. They played much slower against their Division II opponent than they did a year ago. They slowed the game down against Troy too.

Northern Iowa isn't as slow as they were a few years ago, but they still move relatively slowly. They are better on defense than offense.

Northern Iowa has held CS Northridge and S Dakota State to 57 and 58 points. I think they can hold down Furman and slow the pace with the lead late here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston has played two strong teams in Liberty and Florida Atlantic. Now, they take a big step down and play South Carolina State. 

Charleston was 50th in the nation in tempo last year, but they are just 241st this season. The Cougars have struggled on defense thus far, but they have played two excellent offenses. South Carolina State is a very weak offensive team. 

South Carolina State only scored 45 points on Louisville and just 62 points against a really bad North Carolina A&T team.

S Carolina State shoots the ball very poorly, and they turn it over a ton as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* UMass is a very quick paced team, but they are also much stronger on defense than on offense. I do expect a fast paced game, but UMass will usually shoot a poor percentage on the whole.

Le Moyne is a poor team in general, and they have tried to slow the game down this year because of their lack of offensive firepower. I think they'll struggle with the UMass pressure to where we will see a good amount of wasted possessions from Le Moyne.

This one is a few points too high given the two questionable offenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits look nothing like they did in previous seasons. This team just doesn't have shooters around the outside that previous versions had. They have a new coach too, and he is having them slow down the pace. South Dakota State's games have been going far beneath the total. They only put up 68 points on Dakota State and then scored just 58 at Northern Iowa.

Oregon is a lockdown defensive team. They do push the pace some, but they are far better on defense than offense. 

Both of these teams turn the ball over too much and that should lead to quite a few empty possessions.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Neither of these teams are any good, and both of them want to play very slowly. 

Mercyhurst did pull an upset at Loyola Chicago in a game where they controlled the pace and slowed it way down. Mercyhurst is a bottom 10 tempo team nationally. 

Canisius is bottom 10 nationally in average possession length as well. The Golden Griffins do take a lot of 3 pointers so there is some variance.

Last year these two met and it was 62-52 in a slow paced game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Binghamton Bearcats aren't any good on offense. They scored 47 on Syracuse. They scored 59 at home against Niagara. They also only scored 66 against RIT College. I don't see them doing much at all on offense here. 

Georgetown is a defense first team under Ed Cooley. The Hoyas have gotten to the line a lot this year, but one strength of Binghamton last year and this year is they don't foul too much. Georgetown is likely to slow the pace down once they have a larger lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I like playing unders with Marty Simmons coached teams. He always keeps the team playing a very slow pace, and his teams have been woeful when it comes to offensive efficiency.

Notre Dame's primary focus in the offseason was improving the defense. Coach Shrewsbury said he fully expects a big improvement on defense this year. Their length should really bother Eastern Illinois here.

Notre Dame has tended to slow the pace down when they are winning by margin in the past.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Loyola Maryland played NJIT last year and won 68-50 on the road. That game was played to a very slow pace of just 64 possessions. These are two teams who want to slow the game down and play in the halfcourt almost exclusively.

NJIT has been a very poor shooting team in the last couple years. NJIT is trying to get the ball inside to their big men more this year, which should make the pace stay slow.

Loyola Maryland is a slow paced team that has been pretty good on the defensive glass.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles are a defense first team under Earl Grant. Boston College is good at defending without fouling, and they are good at getting defensive boards. The Eagles pace is 263rd in the country, and they will look to slow it down when they can this season.

Central Connecticut State showed they want to play slowly against Quinnipiac. The Bobcats are a run and gun type team, and C Connecticut really stalled out the pace in that game. They are now bottom 50 in the nation in tempo. They also lack top scoring options. They have been settling for contested jumpers.

Boston College played a game to 132 in regulation against fast paced FAU and then a 123 total against The Citadel. I think this total is a good amount too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers have been very good defensively through the first couple games this year. Pitt has given up 59 points and 60 points in those contests. Eastern Michigan grabbed 22 offensive rebounds against Georgia State, but I don't think they'll come even close to that here. Pitt has been a very good defensive rebounding team under Capel. 

Pitt has played drastically slower in their first couple games of the season. The Panthers rank in the bottom 25 in the nation in average possession length so far this year. 

Eastern Michigan's offense isn't likely to work here, and I expect Pitt to slow things down with the lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota Jackrabbits have a new coach this year, and they have slowed their pace down drastically. South Dakota State had been in the top 100-150 range in average possession length in the last few years, but they are just 303rd in the country so far this year. South Dakota State only scored 68 points on Dakota State University in their last game. South Dakota State is still good at limiting the opposition to one shot, but they no longer have all kinds of outside shooters like they did in many years in the past. 

Northern Iowa is good on the defensive glass, and they don't put the opposition on the line very much. Northern Iowa isn't as slow as they once were, but they are still clearly a below average pace team.

I think this total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are well coached by John Dunne. Dunne is well known for his excellent defenses and slow style of play. 

Marist had a really good scorer last year in Josh Pascarelli, but he transferred to Colorado State in the offseason. There isn't anyone who appears to be a natural scorer on this Marist team, so I expect them to try hard to get into low scoring battles where they can win with their defense. They just held Xavier to a 66-62 game in their first game.

Dartmouth plays faster than they did in the past, but they are much better on defense than offense. Dartmouth has been top 20 in the nation in both defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling in both of the last two seasons.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams do both play fast, so I understand a high total, but I think this total is a few points too high.

Albany worked on getting better on defense in the offseason with their newcomers. The coaching staff said they have to up the level significantly on defense to take that next key step. Albany still plays a little faster than average, but they aren't at the extreme levels they were 2 and 3 years ago.

Frank Martin and UMass play very fast, but they are typically better on defense than offense. UMass is always going to work very hard and force a lot of turnovers. 

I expect a fast pace here, but the efficiency numbers don't suggest a total in the 160's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Maine Black Bears were a really good 3 point shooting team last year, but they lost nearly all of their top outside shooters. Maine also took a big jump though because of their excellent defense. Maine's Coach Markwood thinks this team can be even deeper on defense thanks to their athleticism and length. 

Stony Brook lost their best scorer to the portal, and Stony Brook struggled badly on offensive against Farmingdale State scoring just 66 points in their season opener earlier this week.

I expect both of these teams to finish in the bottom 100 in tempo nationally. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons are consistently one of the bottom 10 or 15 teams in the country in terms of tempo. Air Force doesn't have the speed and athleticism to get in a transition battle, so they are going to always do their best to slow things down and win with ball control and win a low scoring contest.

Austin Peay was bottom 100 in the country in average possession length on offense last year too. This Austin Peay team doesn't have many consistent outside shooters. They are scrappy, but they should be happy to play a halfcourt type game and mix in some of their unique defensive looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Tennessee is well known for its stout defense. The Volunteers should be excellent on defense again this year. The Volunteers have been top five in the nation in defensive efficiency in each of the last five seasons. They should be there once again.

Rick Barnes teams have played to the under at a 58% clip as a 13 point favorite or larger. Northern Kentucky is short on scoring threats, and I see them having real trouble with this Tennessee defense.

Northern Kentucky is able to mix in some zones and they are typically above average on that end of the floor.

Unders with large spreads have done well early in the season over the last decade. Two teams here who are both better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Murray State Racers have made it a top priority to get out and run this year. Murray State has a new coaching staff that wants to see a very high tempo. They will be aggressive getting to the basket and getting fouled.

Miss Valley State is among the worst teams in the land, and they just allowed 106 points to UAB. That game was played to a blistering pace of 85 possessions. They should shoot a little better here.

A track meet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans and Furman Paladins are both coached by guys who have typically liked to push the pace with their teams over the course of their career. Neither of these teams played all that fast last year, but both moved quickly and had high scoring games in the first game of the season. 

Troy gave up all kinds of second chance opportunities against Kent State. Troy is well known for their ability to create quick points off steals, and Furman lacks a great ball handler.

Furman has finished in the top 107 in the country in offensive efficiency every single year since 2018. The Paladins are accustomed to high scoring non-conference contests.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bucknell Bison lost their star Willamson, a 7 footer who left for Alabama in the offseason. Coach Griffin said in the offseason what he is most concerned about with this team is where they will find the scoring at. Griffin was quoted as saying he loves their defensive identity, but the team is a work in progress on the offensive end. Bucknell slowed the game down quite a bit last year.

Mount St. Mary's is a defensive minded team that typically struggles to get good shots. They only put up 54 points in game one against West Virginia. They also used 18 seconds of the shot clock on average.

Last year these two teams met and shot the ball well in their meeting with each other and it was still only 142 points before OT.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati defense is a top 20 defense nearly every year under Wes Miller. I think it will be very difficult for Georgia State to score in this one. Georgia State only put up 49 points against a weak Eastern Michigan defense in their first game of the season. 

Georgia State's coaching staff talked in depth in the offseason about their top goal being to be much better on the defensive end this year. The Panthers are a team that doesn't foul much.

Wes Miller's Cincinnati teams have been good under bets when they are double digit favorites. They are 30-22 to the under in the last 52 games in that spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars slow the pace down and play strong defense. They mix in a zone defense pretty often, and they are good at controlling the tempo with that zone. They have length on the perimeter, and I think that makes it tough for Alcorn State to shoot over those long guards.

Alcorn State was in a game against Fla State in their first contest, and the Seminoles pushed the pace to the extreme. Now, they get a team who would prefer play a game to 63 or 64 possessions. Alcorn State shot the ball very well against Florida State, and I think that will regress toward the mean here too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Andy Enfield's SMU team is committed to pushing the pace in a big way this year. SMU was absolutely flying pace wise in their season opening win over Tarleton State. SMU is 2nd fastest in the country in average possession length through one game. SMU averaged just 12.8 seconds per possession in game one. The Mustangs are also good on the offensive glass, and they get to the line a lot. Those are areas where Tex A&M Corpus Christi has struggled defensively in recent seasons.

Corpus Christi does like to use pressure and get out in transition off turnovers. SMU has been a little too turnover prone under Enfield. 

The pace should be high here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats are always going to play very quickly under Tom Pecora. Quinnipiac got into an epic track meet with St. John's in game one. They lost 108-74. 

Central Connecticut has been an inconsistent tempo team under Sellers, but they got into a track meet with Quinnipiac last year. That game finished 84-80. 

The way the games have been called so far this year, I don't see any reason for the total to be this much lower than last year's final.

An up and down tempo with both teams scoring quite a few in transition.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa is one of the biggest pace changers in the country going from Fran McCaffrey to Ben McCollum. Iowa won't necessarily finish at the very bottom of the country in tempo as Drake did the last two seasons, but they are going to go way slower than they have. 

Robert Morris is a team that lost so much of their scoring talent from a year ago. Toole is a good coach and I think he'll want to keep the game at a lower pace too. Robert Morris isn't going to have very good outside shooting or playmakers on offense this year.

This line is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* UNC Asheville has always been a team that wants to pick up full court on defense quite a bit and keep the pace of the game moving. They are far better overall on offense though, and I do think the UNC Asheville defense could be taken advantage of by the Wichita State guards here.

Wichita State wants to play fast with Paul Mills as their head coach. They are very good at getting to the line too, and UNC Asheville routinely can't grab defensive boards and they foul too much.

The first day of college hoops yesterday saw the over dominate with a lot of fouls being called. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Alcorn State Braves have a new coach and I do expect Jake Morton to have them playing faster than they did a year ago. They prioritized getting quickness in the portal and getting more scoring options.

Florida State's athleticism and height will be a very tough matchup for Alcorn State. The Seminoles lost a scrimmage 109-105 against Alabama a couple weeks ago. Luke Loucks is the new head coach at Florida State, and he has been vocal about how he wants the team running as much as possible. 

The first day of college hoops yesterday saw the over dominate with a lot of fouls being called. The scrimmage between Alabama and Fla State saw a total of 88 free throws, and I think there could be a lot here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers have consistently slowed the tempo down under Coach Wayne Tinkle. Oregon State might play a little faster this year, but I do think they'll still be a below average paced team.

North Dakota State has ranked in the bottom 40 in average possession length (slow paced) in each of the last two seasons. The Bison lost their sharpshooters from a year ago, and they will look a whole lot different this season. They led the nation in 3 point shooting percentage last year, but Coach Richman said the team added more defensive help this year and this team is likely to struggle to score as efficiently. 

Neither of these teams are typically teams who foul a lot, and they are both good on the defensive glass.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Tarleton has much better talent now with Dior Johnson and Freddie Hicks. They should be much better offensively than they were a year ago. Tarleton is still going to be a mess on defense.

SMU will be pushing the pace as always under Any Enfield. SMU beat Tarleton 96-62 in a game played to 74 possessions starting last year. I see no reason why the total should be this much lower this time around.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats were 13th in the nation in tempo last year. Ohio loves to push the pace, and their defense has been below average in recent seasons. They are unlikely to be able to keep a good Arkansas State team from getting a lot of points in transition.

Arkansas State has a new head coach in Ryan Pannone and he was the offensive guy at Alabama under Nate Oats. Alabama was first in the nation in tempo last year. The Crimson Tide have built a reputation of pushing the pace to the extreme, and Pannone wants to establish the same thing here. They are looking for 5 out motion and uptempo offense at all times.

Ohio takes good care of the basketball and has multiple outside shooters. Both teams should put up quite a few points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The IU Indy Jaguars have a new coach who is all about pressing full court and pushing the pace. His team in Division II last year routinely scored 100 points or more. 

Ohio State put up 103 points in an exhibition win against Ohio and they had a high scoring scrimmage against Tennessee before that. The Buckeyes want to play faster this year, and they have the perfect opponent for that.

I think the Buckeyes put up a big number here, and IU Indy based on tempo alone should put up enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans are up to 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan State has a defensive mindset under Tom Izzo. No one has a great answer for Johni Broome, but Michigan State has a good interior defense and some solid depth in the frontcourt. Michigan State has played 10 of their last 13 games under this total.

Auburn is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Tigers are 4th in the nation in blocked shots percentage. Michigan State takes a lot of mid range jumpers, and Auburn has been great at defending in the mid range. 

Auburn is 134th in the nation in tempo, so they aren't much faster than average. Michigan State is exactly at the average pace in the country. This is a huge game with a berth in the Final Four on the line. 

State Farm Arena has been good to under bettors in the long haul. This is a pretty high total given the situations here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans have gone on a big run at the end of the season thanks to their defense. That has become the calling card of this Tom Izzo team late in the season. Michigan State is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency for the season, and the Spartans defense has been even better in the last half of the season. 

Ole Miss has a defensive minded coach in Chris Beard. Ole Miss just put up 1.34 points per possession against a shorthanded Iowa State team, but I don't expect them to light up Michigan State. Ole Miss is 134th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Rebels are a good offense, but they aren't elite. Ole Miss is 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency.

State Farm Arena is a massive arena that is tougher shooting backdrops than these teams normally face. 

We just saw Michigan State slow down New Mexico (7th in the nation in tempo) to 65 possessions in their Round of 32 win.

I think both teams will take quite a few tough shots here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are a top three defense in the country in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense. The Volunteers have an elite shot blocker in Felix Okpara. Jahmai Mashack is one of the best individual defenders in the country. UCLA is going to have to work very hard for their points in this one. 

UCLA is 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bruins are great at forcing turnovers. They have suffered a bit in their overall defensive numbers because opponents have shot it very well from the free throw line, but we know there is no skill to free throw defense. UCLA is second in non-steal turnovers which means steals that are a dead ball. These are very helpful for unders. 

UCLA is 312th in the nation in tempo. Tennessee is 346th out of 364 teams in the country in tempo. This game should be a real grinder played in the halfcourt. 

UCLA's offense has been terrible away from home. Tennessee is generally happy to stall and use a lot of clock when they have a lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats are 54th in the country in tempo. Arizona played against a lot of Big 12 teams who wanted to slow the pace down this year. When Arizona played against other fast paced opponents, the scores got very high quickly. Arizona lost to BYU 96-95. The Wildcats beat Arizona State 113-100. They beat Oklahoma State 92-78.

Akron is 16th in the nation in tempo. The Zips love to run and gun. Akron has five regular players who shoot at least 36.5% from 3 point range. Arizona ranks 234th in the country in open 3 rate allowed on defense. On the other side, Akron's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Akron gave up 87 points to St. Mary's, who is far from a fast paced offensive opponent. Akron allowed 100 points against Milwaukee. They won 92-84 against Omaha. Akron is an ugly 340th in open 3 rate allowed on defense.

I think both teams will be happy to run and this will turn into a track meet. Akron is also way too short for Arizona, and the Wildcats should thrive on second chance opportunities here.

It's a high number, but I think this one could get very high.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils are far better defensively than they are given credit for this season. Cooper Flagg is expected to play in this game, but one would assume he will play less minutes than normal. 

Mount St. Mary's is coming off one of their best shooting performances in the past couple years in their win against American in the first four. It will be a whole lot more difficult in this one for them to get open looks. Duke is the tallest team in the country. Mount St. Mary's is 230th in height. The Duke length is going to overwhelm the Mountaineers.

Duke is 267th in the country in tempo. Mount St. Mary's is 165th in the country in tempo, but it would be pretty shocking to see them want to run against a far superior team. 

Jon Scheyer's teams have been under machines in the NCAA Tournament. Duke is 6-0 to the under in Scheyer's games as a head coach, and the average margin is nearly 13 points under the posted total.

I think Duke's defense puts the clamps down and they slow the pace with a big lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers and Drake Bulldogs play in a battle that is a major contrast in styles. Drake plays at the slowest pace of anyone in the country. Missouri is 55th quickest in the country in terms of average possession length. 

Missouri has played 33 games this year. Only two of them have gone under this total. In fact, only two of their games all season have finished with less than 139 points. The Tigers are 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are second in the country in FTA/FGA, so they are living at the free throw line. 

Drake plays slowly, but they aren't great on defense. The Bulldogs are 228th effective field goal percentage defense. They are outside the top 300 in the country in near proximity defense. I think Missouri can make them pay near the basket in this one. 

Drake is 11th in the nation in FTA/FGA. The Tigers foul a lot and Drake should get to the stripe a lot here. Drake is great on the offensive glass, and one of Missouri's biggest weakness is defensive rebounding.

Drake played Vanderbilt earlier this year and it was their fastest paced game of the season. It was an 81-70 final. I don't think this one will be that high, but I think Missouri can score enough to force Drake to speed up slightly. These two offenses are both very solid.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs are a tricky #13 seed. They showed that in their upset of Auburn last year in the first round. 

Texas A&M under Buzz Williams is a defensive-minded team. Texas A&M is 7th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Aggies are going to make Yale work for their points. Yale likes to score from close to the hoop, but that is the strength of the Texas A&M defense. Texas A&M has two elite shot blockers. 

The Texas A&M offense isn't efficient in the halfcourt. They are heavily reliant on offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities. Texas A&M is 317th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are first in offensive rebounding percentage nationally, but Yale is 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage, and Yale is actually a taller team than Texas A&M. Yale is 20th best in the country at preventing second chance points.

Both teams are slightly slower than the average team in the country tempo wise. With a spread at 7.5 (less chance of overtime or a foul fest) and a relatively high total here, I'm going to go under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The early rounds (especially round one and round two) of the NIT and the smaller postseason tournaments have been very good over bets in the long run. That is especially true when the posted total is set at a low number. 

North Texas is one of the slowest paced teams in the country, and I can certainly understand the number being set relatively low here. The Mean Green do get to the free throw line a lot though, and they shoot 77.6% from the charity stripe. 

Furman is just 191st in defensive efficiency. The Paladins have struggled on the defensive glass all season, and North Texas is likely to take advantage in that area. 

Furman should get their chances at the free throw line as well, since North Texas is 321st defensively in FTA/FGA. 

The over has been near 60% in the early rounds of the NIT in the lowest totaled games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys played in a really difficult Big 12. Steve Lutz did a great job at his previous jobs, and I would give him some time to see if it will work here. One thing we know for sure is his teams are going to push the tempo to the max. Western Kentucky finished first in the nation in tempo with him as their coach last year. Oklahoma State is 15th nationally in tempo this season. 

Wichita State is 101st overall in tempo and 72nd in average possession length. They should be happy to run in this contest. Wichita State plays in an AAC with quite a few teams who like to slow the pace down. The Shockers are good at getting to the free throw line, and Oklahoma State fouls nearly as much as anyone in the country.

Oklahoma State is going to use full court pressure and be very aggressive. Wichita State has struggled with this during the season, and I would expect some quick points for the Cowboys here.

An up and down track meet in terms of tempo. As long as the shooting numbers aren't terrible, I think this gets pretty high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers have won a 62-58 contest two days ago and a 57-55 contest on Friday. They play Iona in a game where two lower seeds pulled upsets and got to the title game.

Iona's game against Quinnipiac went over the total on Friday, but it was just 65 possessions. The Quinnipiac defense was very weak in the paint in that game. Mt. St. Mary's is first in shot selection allowed in the MAAC, and I think they can make things tougher on Iona.

Iona's pressure defense should give the Mountaineers guards a lot of trouble. I think Mt. St. Mary's will waste quite a few possessions here. 

Conference tournament final games have been good to under bettors especially in these smaller leagues. It is win and get to the NCAA Tournament or lose and fall just short of that huge goal.

The under is 37-17 at Boardwalk Hall where this game is being played. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a great defensive team for several years now. Joe Gallo does a tremendous job setting up this matchup zone pressure they use to slow the game down and keep the opposition uncomfortable at all times. 

Mount St. Mary's is first in the MAAC in shot selection allowed according to Shot Quality. The Merrimack offense is too reliant on Clark to take over. Merrimack plays very slowly on offense, and they often end with poor shots near the buzzer.

Merrimack is 4th nationally in turnover percentage on defense. Mount St. Mary's is 356th in turnover percentage on offense. 

These two teams are first and third in the conference at defending without fouling.

Boardwalk Hall is 36-16 to the under in the MAAC Tournament games. This is a very good under gym with the large arena often bothering shooters.

Merrimack has seen 5 of their last 7 games stay under this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats and Iona Gaels meet in the MAAC Semifinals at Boardwalk Hall on Friday night. 

Boardwalk Hall is 36-16 to the under in MAAC games. Totals of 134 or higher are a whopping 22-5 to the under here in MAAC Tournament games. This is a tough shooting backdrop for teams that are not accustomed to such a large gym.

Quinnipiac is elite on the defensive glass, and Iona's best offense is their offensive rebounding and second chance points.

Iona is great at forcing turnovers and Quinnipiac struggles to take care of the basketball. 

Both of these teams are below average in getting to the free throw line over the course of the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's and Marist are first and second in the MAAC in shot selection allowed. 

Mount St. Mary's is first in FTA/FGA on defense, so they aren't giving opponents many shots at the stripe. They are also third in defensive rebounding. 

Marist is the slowest paced team in the MAAC. The Red Foxes are 363rd out of 364 teams in the country in FTA/FGA on offense. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams finished 53-50 and 62-52. Both easily stayed under and now we have a win or go home game at a tough venue.

The under has been money at Boardwalk Hall in the last few seasons.

I expect a slow paced low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays will play DePaul in the Big East Tournament on Thursday night. DePaul upset Georgetown in the first round and is now a double digit underdog to Creighton.

Creighton is an average tempo team, and DePaul likes to slow the game down. Creighton is first in the nation at defending without fouling. DePaul is a solid 78th out of 364 at defending without fouling. 

These two teams met twice in the regular season with combined total points of 122 and 140 points in those games. Creighton will be able to score down low with Kalkbrenner here, but I don't think DePaul has many paths to scoring in this one. Creighton is elite on the defensive glass, and DePaul is going to end up taking a bunch of long range jumpers here. Unless DePaul catches fire from deep against a good Creighton 3 point defense, I think DePaul struggles to score.

Madison Square Garden is one of the best under venues in college basketball. All three of the Big East Tournament games on Wednesday at MSG went under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Thursday Big East battle between Marquette and Xavier should be a good one. 

Marquette won by two at Xavier and Xavier won by two at Marquette. These are two quality teams who should be highly motivated in this clash at Madison Square Garden.

Madison Square Garden is one of the best under venues in college basketball. The tough shooting backdrop has given teams fits for many years.

The two games in the regular season were 72-70 and 59-57. The average pace was 68 possessions in those games.

Both of these teams rank in the top 40 nationally in defensive efficiency. They are 69th and 115th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Xavier's defense has improved drastically down the stretch. They have held four of their last five opponents to 68 points or fewer. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Sacred Heart Pioneers and Merrimack Warriors face off in a big MAAC matchup at Boardwalk Hall on Wednesday night.

Merrimack was the betting favorite in this league (to win the conference tournament) according to most sportsbooks. The Warriors have a great matchup zone defense that can really mess up the opposing offense. Joe Gallo is a superb coach who gets the most out of his players.

Sacred Heart almost never gets to the line, and they don't foul very much on defense either.

The two regular season meetings between these two finished at 131 and 119 points total. This game means more being a win or go home.

Boardwalk Hall has been one of the best under venues in all of college basketball. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Madison Square Garden has consistently been one of the best under arenas in college basketball. It is a huge place with a difficult shooting backdrop. Big East unders are about 59% in the last 14 years at MSG.

Providence and Butler went way over the total last time they played, but both teams were on fire from 3 point range. Providence went a whopping 16/32 from 3 point range and still lost the game. Butler was 10/19 from 3 point range.

With MSG being tough for shooters, the fact that both of these teams rely heavily on 3 pointers is dangerous for them.

The defenses have been inconsistent, but Shot Quality ranks both in the top 15 in the country in shot selection allowed. Butler doesn't foul much at all. 

I think the pace here is below average and this is a high total for Madison Square Garden in a win or go home spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacred Heart Pioneers and Fairfield Stags meet at Boardwalk Hall on Tuesday night. 

These two teams met twice in the regular season and it was 148 points total and 145 points total. This is a win or go home game that should mean the tempo should slow down a bit and the referees are usually a little slower to call fouls.

These two offenses rank in the bottom 30 in the country in FTA/FGA so they will need to shoot the ball well to get over this total.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue. The under is 18-4 in the last 22 games at Boardwalk Hall when the total is set at 132.5 or higher. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The tempo should stay slow when these two teams meet in the MAAC Tournament on Tuesday night.

Rider is 326th in average possession length. Siena is 282nd in average possession length. In the one meeting they had in the regular season it finished 61-59 with a slow pace of just 62 possessions.

Siena relies on getting to the line a lot, but Rider is 36th in the nation in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. Siena has a bunch of shot blockers and they have improved quite a bit defensively.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue. The under is 18-4 in the last 22 games at Boardwalk Hall when the total is set at 132.5 or higher. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans meet the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the Sun Belt final. The winner of this one will be in the NCAA Tournament.

Arkansas State was first in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency during conference play this year. Arkansas State was second in the league in tempo. They are 59th in the nation in tempo, so they definitely look to push the pace.

Troy is 240th in tempo, but both games between these two teams were relatively high in the regular season.

Both teams are excellent on the offensive glass. Neither of these teams can get defensive rebounds, so second chance points could really pile up in this contest.

These teams have a history of getting to the line a lot in games against each other.

Because there have been so many unders in conference tournaments this line has been bet down a long way, but I don't think it is justified here. 

The over is 31-25 in this arena. These two teams clearly have some offensive advantages in this matchup.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars slow the pace down the most of anyone in the Sun Belt. They are also first in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a semifinal game that means a ton to both teams and that should help the pace slow even more.

Arkansas State is relatively quick, but they are very good defensively too. The Red Wolves just played a fast paced Marshall team, but this game sets up very differently.

Both regular season meetings came in beneath this total. I thought this one was set quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This should be an all out battle in the finale of Arch Madness on Sunday. These are the two best teams in the MVC and they split the regular season series. Drake plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league. Bradley is a defensive minded team who relies on too many long range jumpers on offense. 

The under is 6-0 in the last two days in this tournament and over 61% to the under in the last 10 years.

I expect a very slow pace here. The two regular season games both stayed under this and now we are in a must win game at a big arena.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two teams stayed under this posted total. Now, they must go play in a win or go home game in the semifinals of Arch Madness.

All four games stayed under the total in this arena yesterday. The under is now north of 60% in the MVC Tournament in the last decade. 

Bradley has a defensive minded coach, and the Braves have slowed down the pace in both meetings between these two during the regular season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs are nothing like the team they were early this year. They are missing two of their key scorers, and with the shorthanded roster they have decided to play much slower on offense. Defensively, Fresno State has started playing a bunch of zone defense to slow the game down. 

Fresno State was routinely playing games around 80 possessions early in the season. Their last two games have been played to a pace of 60 and 59 possessions. 

I think it is hard for the oddsmakers to catch up to that drastic of a change.

San Jose State is 319th in average possession length, so they want to slow the game down. The Spartans are solid on offense, but they also do a good job of defending without fouling.

The first meeting between these two teams was 67-67 heading into overtime. That was before Fresno State slowed their tempo and started playing a zone defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have the top defense in Conference USA. They are allowing just 0.942 points per possession in league play. New Mexico State is also dead last (10th) in Conference USA in effective field goal percentage offense. New Mexico plays at the 303rd ranked tempo in the country. They are very deliberate on the offensive end. 

Sam Houston State has slowed down their pace quite a bit in league play. They are 7th out of 10 in the league in average possession length. They rely on knocking down three point jumpers,  but New Mexico State is 4th in the nation in three point field goal percentage defense. 

Sam Houston has been inconsistent as far as the number of points scored in their games. New Mexico State has been very consistently having low scoring games. I like their chances of dictating this game.

New Mexico State has seen 8 straight games go under this total. They have also seen 11 of their last 13 games finish at 129 points or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs are dead last in the nation in tempo. Drake often relies on getting to the free throw line a lot to score because their halfcourt offense isn't all that efficient. Belmont is first in the MVC in defending without fouling. 

Drake beat Belmont 65-46 earlier this year and controlled the tempo in a big way. Drake playing from ahead can really take the air out of the basketball.

All four games in the MVC Tournament went under on Friday and the under is above 60% in the last decade at this tournament.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are 288th in the country in tempo. They are the better team here, and they are the clear favorite to win. I think Northern Iowa can get a lead and slow the game down. 

Northern Iowa is 20th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. They are also second in the MVC at defending without fouling. 

Valparaiso is 11th in the league in effective field goal percentage. They are 309th in the nation in that statistic. Northern Iowa is tough to beat inside the arc, but Valpo is just a 31.4% shooting team from long range.

This hockey arena is known for unders in Arch Madness. In the last decade, the under sits at about 60% here.

I had this one several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Belmont Bruins and Illinois State RedBirds meet in Arch Madness on Friday afternoon. One of their meetings this year went over the total and the other stayed under this total. 

This arena and this tournament are very well noted for being great to under bettors. 

I realize this game has to have a high total because of the pace Belmont plays at and the efficiency of the Illinois State offense. Even with that being the case, I think this total is set too high given the venue and the situation.

This is a win or go home and the pace likely will slow down a bit as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse have caught fire on the offensive end. After having only two games in their first 21 games where they averaged 1.10 points per possession or higher, Northern Kentucky has now scored 1.10 points per possession or more in 8 of their last 10 games! They have been above 1.16 points per possession in 7 of those 10 games. Northern Kentucky put up 85 points against Cleveland State in their most recent matchup.

One of the biggest changes for Northern Kentucky has been their lower turnover rate on offense. Trey Robinson has been on fire and leading the team in the last few weeks. 

Northern Kentucky's biggest weakness on defense is their inability to grab defensive rebounds. Cleveland State is elite at creating second chance opportunities. Cleveland State is first in the Horizon League in offensive efficiency. The Vikings scored 75 and 76 points in the two meetings with Northern Kentucky during the season.

The pace won't be very quick here, but I think the efficiencies will be high enough that this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have been a tremendous under team in the last couple months. New Mexico State's offense which ranks 340th in effective field goal percentage offense holds them back badly. On the other side though, the Aggies are 21st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

New Mexico State has seen 11 of their last 13 games finish at 129 total points or fewer. 

Louisiana Tech is 319th nationally in pace of play. The Bulldogs have been good offensively against the weaker teams in the league, but Liberty and New Mexico State and Jacksonville State have held them down. 

Louisiana Tech's defense has been quite a bit better at home this year. Daniel Batcho is an elite shot blocker and he should bother New Mexico State here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UMKC Roos are the strange team in the Summit League that wants to slow the game down and win with defense. UMKC is last in the league in tempo. They are also first in the league in defensive efficiency. In a league where most teams are all offense, UMKC stands out as a unique team. 

UMKC lost 78-66 and 77-58 to Omaha in the regular season. Omaha won the league and is the better team, but UMKC was able to control the tempo in both games. The game that finished 78-66 had a bunch of points scored very late in that contest. 

Omaha ranks right in the middle in tempo. The Mavericks have tended to play to the pace of their opponent. They do rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. 

This game is played at Sanford Sports Complex in South Dakota. This is a neutral court where the under is 51-40 in the last 91. It is clearly at least somewhat helpful to the under. It is a big arena and there won't be too many people here. The shooting backdrop has proved quite difficult for these mid major teams.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks are 214th in tempo in the country. UT Martin is 324th in effective field goal percentage on offense. UT Martin is also 316th in offensive turnover percentage. They are first in the Ohio Valley Conference in three pointers attempted. They are up against a Tennessee Tech team that is second in the OVC in 3 point field goal percentage allowed. They are 8th in the country in open 3 rate allowed. UT Martin hasn't shot it well from 3 against them in their regular season meetings.

Tennessee Tech is 280th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are first in the OVC in defending without fouling. The Golden Eagles are poor on the offensive glass, and they rarely get to the free throw line themselves on offense.

The two meetings between these two in the regular season both went to overtime. The first meeting was 70-70 before overtime. The second meeting was 62-62 before overtime and only finished 71-66 after overtime. 

Ford Center is a neutral venue where the under has done well. The average game in the last 27 games here has gone under the total by more than 5 points. Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs have clearly changed the way they play in the last few weeks. In fact, Fresno State hasn't played a single game faster than a pace of 70 possessions in the last ten games. Their average pace for the year is 71.6 possessions,  but those lightning quick games with 80 plus possessions back in December mean absolutely nothing right now.

Fresno State is now without Jalen Weaver after he was suspended and then removed from the team. Weaver averaged 12.5 points per game and was a playmaker for the Bulldogs. Amar Augillard is the leading scorer for the year and he is out. Mykell Robinson is also not on the team anymore and he averaged more than 10 points per game. Weaver is the most recent guy removed and he is key.

Wyoming needed overtime to beat Fresno State in the first game between these two. That game was 134 total points before overtime. Wyoming is 352nd in the country in average possession length, so they are playing very slowly. The Cowboys are strong on the defensive glass, and Fresno should be getting just one shot pretty consistently.

Both teams are better on defense than offense. Fresno State is shorthanded and playing slower, and Wyoming is happy to slow the pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers are a solid offense now, and they are very weak on defense. Virginia takes a lot of three pointers, and they are 21st in the nation in three point field goal percentage. The Cavaliers have three regular guys who shoot 39.7% or higher from long range. Florida State ranks 258th in open three rate allowed. 

Florida State is first in the ACC in tempo. The Seminoles will do their best to push the pace of this contest. Florida State is 17th in shot selection allowed defensively in ACC play (out of 18 teams). The Seminoles have allowed 89, 96, and 100 points in their last three games. 

Virginia is 18th (last) in the ACC in shot selection allowed. They are 17th in defensive efficiency in the ACC. They are giving up 1.144 points per possession in conference play. Florida State has a big edge offensively near the hoop and on second chance opportunities with their offensive rebounding.

These are two poor defenses, and I don't think the line here reflects the current status of these defensive units.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are one game back of the Quinnipiac Bobcats for first place in the MAAC. Marist will be plenty hyped up for this game with their chances of winning the regular season title still very real.

Marist is 27th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Marist is 13th in defensive rebounding nationally as well. Marist is also 360th out of 364 teams in the country in FTA/FGA, so they aren't getting to the free throw line much at all. Marist is 313th nationally in offensive efficiency overall.

St. Peter's is even worse offensively at 341st nationally. Their best offense is getting offensive rebounds and second chance points. Marist is excellent on the defensive glass though.

These two teams are 332nd in pace (Marist) and 347th in tempo (St. Peter's) and the tempo should be very slow here. The first game between these two was just 59 possessions and it finished 56-51. 

I see another low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pepperdine Waves have had a bunch of very high scoring games of late. Pepperdine has allowed 90.4 points per game in their last five games. Pepperdine has sped up their tempo, and this Pepperdine team has loads of high scoring games on the road. They have been far more efficient on offense away from home.

Washington State beat Pepperdine 87-86 a couple weeks ago. The Cougars are 32nd in the nation in average possession length. Washington State is allowing 88.4 points per game in their last five games. Washington State is 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They struggle with turnovers, but Pepperdine is one of the worst in the nation at forcing turnovers.

The pace here should be ultra quick. Their first meeting was 76 possessions. I think this one is 74 or 75 possessions again. The defenses have been much worse in recent weeks. This is the last game for both teams and it shouldn't mean much to either team. In the long run that usually means a lot of offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee State Tigers have the fastest overall pace in the OVC. The Tigers lost 77-75 at Southern Indiana the first time around, but they were missing several key pieces in that game. Tennessee State has scored 80 points or more in 8 of their last 13 games. They excel at getting to the free throw line.

Southern Indiana is at the bottom of the OVC, and they run with Lindenwood and SIU Edwardsville in recent contests. Southern Indiana allows a ton of second chance points, which is a major problem against Tennessee State's front line. 

These teams like to get out in transition to begin with, and this is their final game of the regular season. These late season regular season games between teams at .500 or lower have been good to over bettors in the long run.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers are not even close to the same team that they were under Tony Bennett. The only similarity is that they play at a slow pace. Virginia used to be a great defensive team and an offense that struggled. Now, Virginia ranks second last in ACC play in defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers are giving up 1.144 points per possession in league play. On the other hand, Virginia is shooting the ball well. The Cavs have scored 73 points or more in six of their last eight games.

Clemson is second behind only Duke in ACC play in offensive efficiency. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 1.173 points per possession in league play. Clemson has scored 72 points or more in six straight games. The Tigers have four players averaging 10.9 points per game. Chase Hunter has turned into an elite scorer. 

I think this game is priced more like it was the Virginia team of old, but this Virginia defense is very weak.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a really good under team the last few seasons. Merrimack is the top defense in the MAAC. The Warriors are allowing just 0.94 points per possession this season. Merrimack is 313th in offensive efficiency nationally. They are excellent on defense, but they struggle to get good looks on offense.

The Rider Broncs are 315th nationally in offensive efficiency. Rider is 362nd in the nation in shot selection according to Shot Quality. There are 364 teams in the country. 

Merrimack has had some extremely low scoring games on their home floor. They are last in the conference in offensive efficiency at home. They are also first in the conference in defensive efficiency at home.

Rider is 301st in tempo nationally. Merrimack is 319th nationally in tempo. This projects as a low scoring slow paced contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have been a very consistent team in the last few weeks. New Mexico State is slowing the game down in a big way. New Mexico State ranks as the slowest paced team in Conference USA. They are 292nd in the country in overall tempo.

New Mexico State is 335th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Aggies struggle to get good looks. On the defensive end, New Mexico State is very solid. They are 24th in effective field goal percentage defense. They are first in Conference USA in defensive efficiency. They are 9th in offensive efficiency.

New Mexico State has seen 10 of their last 11 games finish with 129 points or fewer. 

MTSU is a little bit faster than average in tempo, but they have been slowed down by good defenses and teams who are very slow in tempo. That includes the first game against New Mexico State where there were just 64 possessions and 118 points. 

MTSU's defense has been hurt most by teams who shoot it well from long range, but New Mexico State isn't typically that type of team. They are outside the top 300 in 3 point FG percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames sit half a game behind the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the Conference USA standings as the two fight for first place in the league. This is a really big game for both teams. The bigger the game the slower the tempo usually is, and we should expect to see a strong effort from the defenses.

Liberty has been really good on defense this year, but they have been next level good at home on defense. The Flames are holding opponents to 0.922 points per possession in league play at home. 

Jacksonville State is significantly less efficient on offense away from home. The Gamecocks are 330th in the country in average possession length. Jacksonville State is playing very slowly on a consistent basis.

Liberty is first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. The Flames are also excellent on the defensive glass and defending without fouling.

Liberty has seen 5 of their last 6 games stay under this total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers are no longer the Virginia teams from the Tony Bennett days. Virginia still play slowly, but they are now good on offense and terrible defensively. 

Virginia is 17th out of 18 teams in the ACC in defensive efficiency in ACC play. Virginia has allowed at least 1.16 points per possession in six of their last eight games. On the other side, Virginia has more than 1 point per possession on offense in nine straight games. The Cavaliers have a whopping six of the nine games where they have put up 1.199 points per possession or higher. They aren't playing fast, but their games keep going over the total.

Wake Forest has trended down in a big way on defense of late as well. They have allowed 1.1018 points per possession or more in seven straight games. In six straight games, Wake Forest's offense has put up 1.04 points per possession or more. 

I'll fade the defenses here. The over is 10-0 in Virginia's last 10 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are excellent defensively, but their road games have been where the defense has excelled the most. Appalachian State has slowed the game down more on the road, and they are allowing just 0.952 points per possession in the conference.

Appalachian State has played 10 straight road games that have stayed under this total. In fact, five of their last seven games on the road have finished with 124 points or less. 

Georgia Southern has struggled defensively partially because of their inability to grab defensive boards. Appalachian State is last in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage. Georgia Southern relies heavily on 3 point shooting. Appalachian State is fifth in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. 

These teams played recently and it went over because of overtime. It was 136 points total in regulation. I think this one stays mid 130's or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* SE Missouri State has really come on throughout the season. This team is now first in the OVC in the standings. They are 1st in the conference in offensive efficiency. SE Missouri State has been torching the nets of late, especially on their home floor. SE Missouri State has scored at least 83 points in each of their last four games at home. 

Lindenwood is first in the OVC in average possession length, so they are playing very quick. The Lions are poor defensively, and they foul a lot. Lindenwood has played three of their last four games to a pace of 72 possessions or quicker. 

The first game between these two was played to 72 possessions and the teams shot the ball poorly and still got to 140 points. I think the pace will be quick here and it will get past the total this time.

Take the over.